603 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 010843
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018
 
 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
 Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very
 cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area
 of outer banding.  A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system
 has not yet developed a tight inner core.  However, the various
 satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt.  Thus, the cyclone
 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative
 initial intensity of 35 kt.
 
 The initial motion is 285/11.  The track guidance is in good
 agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the
 southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,
 with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast
 period.  There has been little change in the guidance since the
 previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the
 previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model
 consensus.
 
 Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light
 vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid
 strengthening is expected during that time.  There remains some
 spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less
 intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
 models.  The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of
 the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24
 h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h.  It should be noted
 that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS
 and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the
 HCCA consensus model.  After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily
 decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 

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