MKWC archive forecast page
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Please select a year and month and links of all available forecasts for that period will be given in the 'Select Forecast' menu.
Selection: 2008
11
Nov 17 2008 (afternoon)



Mauna Kea Forecast

Latest Forecast for Mauna Kea Observatories
5 PM HST Monday 17 November (0300 UTC Tuesday 18 November) 2008

Warnings
Fog, ice and high humidity
Chance for flurries and thunderstorms

Cloud Cover and Precipitation Forecast
There is a high risk for fog, ice, high humidity and perhaps light flurries and convection throughout the night (and particularly for tomorrow morning). High clouds will move in from the west and block most of the sky for tonight.

Summary of Key Meteorological Variables
Summit temperatures will be near -1 C tomorrow evening and -2 C tomorrow morning. Winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, with seeing likely around 1 arcsecond. Precipitable water is expected to exceed 4 mm for most of the night.

Graphical Summary

Discussion
The tradewind inversion will remain elevated/indistinct near summit-level for at least this evening, then will likely completely fall apart allowing the air mass to become fairly saturated and unstable for the remainder of the forecast period. Consequently, there is a high risk for fog, ice and high humidity through the next 5 nights. Flurries, periods of heavy snow and thunderstorms are also possible, mainly for tomorrow and again around Thursday/Friday. Extensive afternoon clouds are expected throughout the forecast period.

Broken high clouds are expected to move in from the west and block most of the sky for much of tonight. Although these clouds are slated to shift eastward by tomorrow afternoon, mid/summit-level clouds could become an issue for the remainder of the week. In addition, thicker more widespread clouds are expected to move in from the southwest on Wednesday and continue to stream through the area and block probably all of the sky for the remainder of the forecast period.

Precipitable water will likely exceed 4 mm throughout the forecast period.

Strong shear/turbulence in the free atmosphere, combined with moisture, instability, and/or clouds will likely contribute to poor/bad seeing and perhaps periods (or nights) of inoperable conditions throughout most of the forecast period.

No change since the morning forecast...A very large mid/upper-level trough will continue to linger in the area, inhibiting to development/establishment of the ridge and thus promoting minor instability in the area throughout most of the forecast period. This will keep the air mss relatively moist or perhaps saturated, likely resulting in fog, ice, high humidity and perhaps light flurries at the summit during this time. In addition, this large trough will allow embedded short-wave to pass close to or through the Islands, periodically enhancing the instability in the area particularly for much of tomorrow and again around Thursday/Friday. This may result in widespread thunderstorms and even periods of heavy snow at the summit centered near these times. Overall snowfall accumulation should be relatively small, but there is a chance for minor drifting particularly if summit-level winds pick up during the second episode. In fact, there is a possibility that the second trough will deposit a strong mid/upper-level low to the west of the State that may linger in the area into next week. This could allow the poor conditions (and cloudy skies) to persist through the weekend.

Astronomical Observing Quality Guidance
Seeing/CN2 Images are not available today. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Latest WRF CN2 Profiles Animation | Collage


5-day Forecast
Summary

Graphical Trend
08 pm HST
Mon 17 Nov
02 am HST
Tue 18 Nov
02 pm HST
Tue 18 Nov
08 pm HST
Tue 18 Nov
02 am HST
Wed 19 Nov
02 pm HST
Wed 19 Nov
08 pm HST
Wed 19 Nov
02 am HST
Thu 20 Nov
02 pm HST
Thu 20 Nov
02 am HST
Fri 21 Nov
02 pm HST
Fri 21 Nov
02 am HST
Sat 22 Nov
02 pm HST
Sat 22 Nov
06 UTC
Tue 18 Nov
12 UTC
Tue 18 Nov
00 UTC
Wed 19 Nov
06 UTC
Wed 19 Nov
12 UTC
Wed 19 Nov
00 UTC
Thu 20 Nov
06 UTC
Thu 20 Nov
12 UTC
Thu 20 Nov
00 UTC
Fri 21 Nov
12 UTC
Fri 21 Nov
00 UTC
Sat 22 Nov
12 UTC
Sat 22 Nov
00 UTC
Sun 23 Nov
Cloud Cover (%) 60 to 80 70 to 90 60 to 80 50 to 70 40 to 60 60 to 80 70 to 90 80 to 100 80 to 100 80 to 100 80 to 100 80 to 100 80 to 100
Chance for Fog/Precip (%) 90/30 90/50 100/75 90/60 90/50 90/40 90/30 90/30 90/40 90/50 90/50 75/40 75/40
PW (mm, summit upward) 4 to 6 4 to 8 4 to 8 4 to 6 4 to 6 4 to 6 4 to 6 4 to 6 4 to 8 4 to 8 4 to 8 4 to 8 4 to 8
Probability PW < 0.8 mm (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mean Seeing (arcsecs) 0.9 ± 0.3 1.1 ± 0.4 N/A 1.4 ± 0.5 1.3 ± 0.5 N/A 0.9 ± 0.3 0.9 ± 0.3 N/A 1.2 ± 0.5 N/A 1.2 ± 0.4 N/A
Summit Temp (°C) -1 -2 0 -3 -3 2 -1.5 -1.5 1 -2 2 -1 3
Wind Dir/Speed (mph)
    Summit (615 hPa)
    19,000 ft (500 hPa)
    24,500 ft (400 hPa)
    31,000 ft (300 hPa)
    35,000 ft (250 hPa)
    40,000 ft (200 hPa)
    46,000 ft (150 hPa)
    54,000 ft (100 hPa)

W/5 to 15
WSW/20
W/32
W/53
W/60
W/74
W/80
W/27

WNW/5 to 15
WSW/23
WSW/40
W/54
WSW/63
W/81
W/74
W/32

W/10 to 20
WNW/25
WSW/52
W/52
W/68
W/80
W/84
W/47

N/5 to 15
NW/23
WNW/39
WNW/51
W/68
W/89
W/89
W/52

NE/5 to 15
NW/15
WNW/38
W/52
WNW/71
W/97
W/85
W/50

SE/5 to 15
WNW/8
WNW/26
W/49
W/63
W/69
W/87
W/46

SSE/5 to 15
WSW/9
W/22
W/48
W/55
WSW/76
WSW/97
W/46

SSW/10 to 20
SW/16
WSW/27
WSW/45
WSW/55
WSW/85
WSW/89
WSW/48

SSW/15 to 25
SW/24
SW/33
SW/60
WSW/74
SW/85
SW/87
WSW/47

SW/15 to 30
SW/27
SW/38
SW/71
SW/79
SW/88
WSW/104
WSW/47

SW/15 to 30
WSW/24
SW/47
SW/61
SW/68
WSW/65
WSW/78
W/44

SW/15 to 30
WSW/30
SW/49
SSW/65
SSW/69
SW/83
WSW/74
WNW/29

SE/15 to 30
SW/22
SSW/39
SSW/55
SSW/58
SSW/55
SW/31
NW/25


 Rise and Set times for the Sun and Moon
Night (HST)
Sun Set
Twilight End
Twilight Beg
Sun Rise
Moon Rise
Moon Set
Illum (%)
RA
Dec
Mon.Nov.17/Tue.Nov.18
17:51
18:58
5:16
6:23
22:30
N/A
65
8 44.3
18 33
Tue.Nov.18/Wed.Nov.19
17:51
18:58
5:17
6:24
23:31
N/A
54
9 37.9
13 18
Wed.Nov.19/Thu.Nov.20
17:51
18:58
5:17
6:24
0:28
N/A
44
10 27.7
7 35
Thu.Nov.20/Fri.Nov.21
17:51
18:58
5:18
6:25
1:22
N/A
33
11 14.6
1 42
Fri.Nov.21/Sat.Nov.22
17:51
18:58
5:18
6:26
2:14
N/A
24
12 00.2
-4 06


Forecast issued by: Ryan Lyman
Contact Us - (808) 932-2323
Hours: Mon-Fri 8 AM - 5 PM HST (1800-0300 UTC)

For public road conditions and snow report message please call (808) 935-6268.
This message is also available at the MKWC road conditions page.

Next update at 10 AM HST (2000 UTC) Tuesday 18 November 2008.
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This page was last modified on: Tue, Jun 23 2015 - 2320 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman