MKWC archive forecast page
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Please select a year and month and links of all available forecasts for that period will be given in the 'Select Forecast' menu.
Selection: 2008
11
Nov 13 2008 (afternoon)



Mauna Kea Forecast

Latest Forecast for Mauna Kea Observatories
5 PM HST Thursday 13 November (0300 UTC Friday 14 November) 2008

Warnings
Chance for fog/ice

Cloud Cover and Precipitation Forecast
There is a chance for high humidity, fog, ice and perhaps light precipitation throughout the night. High clouds will likely litter the northern skies and probably pass overhead throughout the night as well.

Summary of Key Meteorological Variables
Summit temperatures will be near 3 C this afternoon and -1 C for the night. Winds will be from the SE at 5-15 mph much of the night. Precipitable water is expected to be in the 3-4 mm range, while seeing will likely be around 0.8-0.9 arcseconds.

Graphical Summary

Discussion
The tradewind inversion will remain rather indistinct and elevated as minor instability and moisture lingers in the area probably throughout the forecast period. While the air mass is not expected to become totally saturated, there is a moderate/high risk for fog, high humidity, and ice during this time. Short periods of light precipitation are also possible mainly during the latter half of the weekend. Extensive afternoon clouds are likely throughout the forecast period.

Scattered to broken high clouds will continue to march in from the northwest, but should pass mainly along the northern skies, with occasional fingers passing overhead through the next 3 nights. There is a chance that these clouds will shift eastward on Sunday, but another large patch is expected to fill in from the northwest for the early part of next week. These clouds could organize with tropical high clouds and block a large portion of the sky for the middle part of next week.

Precipitable water will likely linger near 3-4 mm probably throughout the forecast period.

Increasing shear in the free atmosphere, combined with lingering instability, moisture and/or clouds will likely contribute to poor seeing throughout most of the forecast period. There is a chance for more average-like seeing if all briefly breaks around Sunday night. But poor conditions/skies and thus seeing will likely return for next week.

Aside from the projected increase in cloud coverage for tonight, not much change since the morning forecast...The mid/low-level ridge will continue to weaken over the next 12-24 hours and probably won't have much of an influence on the air mass near the Islands over the next week or so. While the upper-level low responsible for the instability and perhaps moisture in the area last night will continue to shift out of the area, the decay of the ridge will allow tropical moisture to linger in the area into next week. In addition, a trough digging in from the northwest will slowly pass through the area and keep the air mass relatively unstable until it shifts eastward on Sunday. These factors will keep the inversion rather weak/indistinct, which could allow more fog/ice to develop at the summit over the next 3 nights. Light rain/flurries are also possible during this time, and especially as the trough axis passes to the north early Sunday morning. This trough will also allow high clouds to pass along the northern skies and perhaps occasionally overhead through Sunday. There is a chance that skies and conditions will briefly improve for Sunday night, but another sharper trough is expected to develop the northwest and deposit a low to the west during the early/middle part of next week. This may bring another round of instability, clouds and moisture to the area during that time.

Astronomical Observing Quality Guidance
Seeing/CN2 Images are not available today. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Latest WRF CN2 Profiles Animation | Collage


5-day Forecast
Summary

Graphical Trend
08 pm HST
Thu 13 Nov
02 am HST
Fri 14 Nov
02 pm HST
Fri 14 Nov
08 pm HST
Fri 14 Nov
02 am HST
Sat 15 Nov
02 pm HST
Sat 15 Nov
08 pm HST
Sat 15 Nov
02 am HST
Sun 16 Nov
02 pm HST
Sun 16 Nov
02 am HST
Mon 17 Nov
02 pm HST
Mon 17 Nov
02 am HST
Tue 18 Nov
02 pm HST
Tue 18 Nov
06 UTC
Fri 14 Nov
12 UTC
Fri 14 Nov
00 UTC
Sat 15 Nov
06 UTC
Sat 15 Nov
12 UTC
Sat 15 Nov
00 UTC
Sun 16 Nov
06 UTC
Sun 16 Nov
12 UTC
Sun 16 Nov
00 UTC
Mon 17 Nov
12 UTC
Mon 17 Nov
00 UTC
Tue 18 Nov
12 UTC
Tue 18 Nov
00 UTC
Wed 19 Nov
Cloud Cover (%) 60 to 80 60 to 80 60 to 80 40 to 60 50 to 70 60 to 80 60 to 80 40 to 60 60 to 80 10 to 30 60 to 80 20 to 40 60 to 80
Chance for Fog/Precip (%) 75/25 75/25 75/25 60/20 60/20 75/25 75/25 75/30 75/30 60/20 60/20 50/10 60/20
PW (mm, summit upward) 3 to 4 3 to 4 4 to 6 3 to 4 3 to 4 4 to 8 4 to 6 4 to 6 4 to 8 3 to 5 4 to 6 3 to 5 4 to 6
Probability PW < 0.8 mm (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5
Mean Seeing (arcsecs) 0.8 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2 N/A 0.8 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.2 N/A 0.9 ± 0.3 1.0 ± 0.3 N/A 0.7 ± 0.2 N/A 0.8 ± 0.2 N/A
Summit Temp (°C) -1 -1 4 1 1 5 0.5 -0.5 3 -0.5 4 0 4
Wind Dir/Speed (mph)
    Summit (615 hPa)
    19,000 ft (500 hPa)
    24,500 ft (400 hPa)
    31,000 ft (300 hPa)
    35,000 ft (250 hPa)
    40,000 ft (200 hPa)
    46,000 ft (150 hPa)
    54,000 ft (100 hPa)

SE/5 to 15
WNW/10
NW/19
WNW/21
WNW/27
WNW/31
W/29
WNW/20

SE/5 to 15
W/14
WNW/22
WNW/20
W/26
W/35
W/37
WNW/19

S/5 to 15
NW/5
NW/9
W/29
WNW/39
WNW/35
WNW/20
NW/24

NNE/5 to 15
NNW/6
WSW/13
NW/18
NNW/33
NNW/32
W/16
NNW/21

ENE/5 to 15
NNW/8
WSW/15
W/17
WNW/30
NW/27
WSW/29
NW/10

WSW/5 to 15
SW/6
WSW/23
WSW/28
WSW/37
W/41
WNW/37
NNW/10

WSW/5 to 15
SSW/6
W/21
WSW/34
WSW/40
W/43
WNW/29
NW/8

W/5 to 15
W/12
W/23
WSW/44
WSW/50
W/49
WNW/38
WNW/8

WNW/5 to 15
W/21
W/30
WNW/37
WNW/49
WNW/53
WNW/42
WNW/16

NNE/5 to 15
NNW/11
NW/22
NW/40
NW/50
W/59
W/49
W/19

ESE/5 to 15
NNW/4
NW/15
NW/31
WNW/37
W/52
W/64
W/27

SSE/5 to 15
WSW/9
WNW/13
W/25
W/36
W/62
W/65
W/33

SSE/5 to 15
W/8
W/17
W/26
W/51
W/73
W/66
W/37


 Rise and Set times for the Sun and Moon
Night (HST)
Sun Set
Twilight End
Twilight Beg
Sun Rise
Moon Rise
Moon Set
Illum (%)
RA
Dec
Thu.Nov.13/Fri.Nov.14
17:52
18:59
5:14
6:21
18:07
N/A
98
4 26.2
26 19
Fri.Nov.14/Sat.Nov.15
17:52
18:59
5:15
6:21
19:10
N/A
93
5 34.7
27 08
Sat.Nov.15/Sun.Nov.16
17:52
18:58
5:15
6:22
20:18
N/A
85
6 42.1
25 55
Sun.Nov.16/Mon.Nov.17
17:51
18:58
5:16
6:23
21:25
N/A
76
7 45.7
22 54
Mon.Nov.17/Tue.Nov.18
17:51
18:58
5:16
6:23
22:30
N/A
65
8 44.3
18 33


Forecast issued by: Ryan Lyman
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Next update at 10 AM HST (2000 UTC) Friday 14 November 2008.
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This page was last modified on: Tue, Jun 23 2015 - 2320 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman