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West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion

562
WTPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.5N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.8N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.1N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 150.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD O5W, THE MAJORITY OF IT
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED OFF. A 061120Z AMSU-B GIVES MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20
TO 30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 05W IS
CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 24 DUE TO
INCREASED VWS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 10 FEET.//

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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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