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West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion

375
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 152.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 152.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.9N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 152.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAPID WEAKENING AS CONVECTION IS NOW
SHEARED OVER 200NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LOSE DEFINITION. A RECENT 111047Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO 25 KNOTS DESPITE MUCH HIGHER
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT CONTINUE TO BE CONSTRAINED DUE TO
THE RAPID WEAKENING. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LIFE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TURNS NORTH. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET.//

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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