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West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion

049
WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 10.8N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 9.5N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 8.3N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 109.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
MOVED OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS QUICKLY UNRAVELING,
WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN VIETNAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC IS ELONGATING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RAPID DECAY OCCURING. TD 22W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BOTH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 8 FEET.
//

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