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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

035
WTNT42 KNHC 280236
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past few hours, and the associated deep convection is confined to a
somewhat linear band north and northwest of the center. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt, consistent with a blend of the latest TAFB
and SAB Dvorak estimates. The biggest positive factor for the
cyclone intensifying in the next 12 to 36 hours is its movement over
the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are above 27C. However, moderate to
strong vertical shear and dry air argue against significant
strengthening. Given these competing factors, the official forecast
continues to show modest intensification during the first 24-36
hours. This forecast is closest to the SHIPS model. After 36 hours,
a track over cooler shelf waters and an increase in shear should
result in slow weakening, with the system expected to become a
remnant low in about 3 days.

The initial motion estimate is 300/10, with the depression currently
situated between a mid/upper-level low over the northwest Bahamas
and a narrow mid-level ridge extending east of the North Carolina
coast. These features should result in a continued west-
northwestward track for the next 24 hours. After that time, both of
these synoptic steering features weaken while a broad mid/upper-
level trough moves into the eastern United States. This pattern
suggests that the cyclone will slow down and gradually turn
northward and then northeastward in 2-3 days. Through day 3 the NHC
track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and lies a
bit to the right of the previous official forecast, especially at 48
and 72 hours. After that time the global model spread is larger. The
ECMWF shows the remnant low moving more quickly northeastward, while
the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean show a motion back toward the west at
days 4-5. The NHC forecast late in the period still favors the ECMWF
track, but is slower given the latest GFS/GEFS trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 29.0N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 30.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 31.3N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 32.2N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 32.7N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 34.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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