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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

188
WTNT44 KNHC 220839
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm
activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently
cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation
on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized.
The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression later this morning to check its intensity.

The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but
the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within
the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the
system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to
reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its
passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system
and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent
reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be
disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and
weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC
forecast.

The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally
westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system
across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean
Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is
nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north
of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the
possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in
the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more
uncertain by days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 19.4N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 19.1N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 18.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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