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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

393
WTNT41 KNHC 102031
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

Surface and radar data indicate that Ana is moving farther inland.
The estimated intensity is 30 kt, and these winds are confined to
the coastal areas of North Carolina. Continued weakening is
expected, and the system should degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low within 24 hours. Although a forecast track is shown
through 48 hours, it should be noted that the global models show the
system degenerating into an open trough sooner than that time. In
any event, the remnants of Ana are likely to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 020/4 kt.
The steering flow associated with a large mid-level trough to the
west of Ana should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward with
some acceleration over the next day or two. The official track
forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus and the latest
ECMWF solution.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Ana. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
PM EDT under AWIPS header TCPAT1 AND WMO header WTNT31 KWNH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 34.4N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 35.3N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 37.0N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 39.3N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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