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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

186
WTNT42 KNHC 280857
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016

For much of the night, there was little overall change in the
organization of Gaston. A ragged eye had occasionally been seen
in infrared satellite imagery, and an 0529 UTC AMSR microwave
overpass detected an eye that was open over the southwestern
quadrant. However, within the past hour or so, the eye has become a
little more apparent, with some cooling to the surrounding cloud
tops. As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 80
kt, which is slightly above the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
because of the recent increase in organization.

Gaston is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment and
over warm water during the next 24 hours, which should allow for
additional intensification. After that time, the NHC forecast shows
a leveling-off of Gaston's intensity due to the possibility of
upwelling of cooler water resulting from the expected slow motion
of the hurricane. Later in the period, increasing in southwesterly
shear is likely to cause some weakening, but Gaston is predicted to
remain a hurricane during the entire 5-day forecast period.

The forward motion of the hurricane appears to be slowing down
as anticipated, with recent satellite fixes indicating an initial
motion of 325/5 kt. Gaston should continue to decelerate during
the next day or so as it remains within an area of weak steering
flow. In a 2 to 3 days, a mid-latitude trough is forecast to dig
southward off the northeastern United States coast, which should
begin to steer Gaston northeastward, but a a slower speed than that
of typical recurving hurricanes over the North Atlantic. The track
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is
near the consensus of the dynamical models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 30.1N 54.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 30.6N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 31.0N 55.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 31.3N 55.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 31.9N 54.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 33.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 35.8N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 38.5N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


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