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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

397
WTNT42 KNHC 222034
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The satellite presentation of the depression has become less
impressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold
cloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the
low-level center is located on the east side of the convective
canopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB
Dvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to
be taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear
should result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a
trough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a
48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also
possible that the system could dissipate even sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
dissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to
the north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is
close to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.2N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


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