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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion
699
WTNT42 KNHC 182037
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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