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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

280
WTNT42 KNHC 230236
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection
than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the
convective pattern consists of a small circular area of
thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding
features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt
based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.

The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the
vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in
shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry
air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48
h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even
faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking
the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles
late Wednesday or on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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