Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Polar_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Lightning_Data
Forecasts
Vog_Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion

334
WTNT42 KNHC 272057
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a
well-defined closed circulation. With this afternoon's increase in
convection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone
and advisories have been initiated. The strongest reliable SFMR
surface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
to the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain
oriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours
or so, which should keep the depression moving in a general
west-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,
a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the
south-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,
resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a
sharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the
coast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast
of North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good
agreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in
forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus
model TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the
ECMWF model.

The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface
temperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before
moving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are
27C-28C. Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving
into weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is
expected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to
landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model
through 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model
after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman