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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

444
FXHW60 PHFO 290628
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
828 PM HST Fri Jan 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rather dry conditions will persist into Monday. Trade winds will
build tonight and Saturday, then decline and shift southeasterly
again on Sunday, with modest showers focused over windward
slopes. A front will stall and dissipate near Kauai Monday and
may lead to a slight increase of showers late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate trade winds will briefly return tonight and Saturday as
a high passes north of the state. Some light sprinkles will be
possible Saturday morning over windward and mountain areas, but
for the most part we should see another dry day Saturday. Rainfall
totals over the last 24 hours have been mostly non-existent with
only a few sites reporting 0.01 inches of rain.

On Sunday, a front passing several hundred miles northwest of the
state will cause the winds to veer toward the southeast and
weaken. Winds should decrease enough for localized sea breezes on
Sunday, but due to the drier than normal air mass in place we
will likely see very little rainfall.

By Monday, the front is expected to be passing north of the state
and dissipating. Winds will be decrease further with light and
variable winds expected on Monday. Afternoon sea breezes combined
with some remnant moisture from the front could produce some light
showers in the afternoon and evening on Monday.

From Tuesday onward, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in
the forecast with some of the models showing a cut off low
developing east of the Big Island. The extended forecast will
depend on the strength and placement of this low pressure system,
but for now our forecast reflects a light wind pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
The trade winds will strengthen overnight, with moderate trades
expected statewide on Saturday. Very dry conditions are expected,
with minimal shower activity limited to windward slopes and
coasts. VFR conditions should prevail during the next 24 hours,
with brief MVFR cigs possible in passing light showers over
windward locales.

AIRMET Tango is now in effect for moderate upper level turbulence
between FL240 AND FL370. This AIRMET will likely continue through
Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds remain mostly light, with some moderate easterly
breezes around the Big Island, as a ridge axis persists near
Kauai. Moderate trade winds will return briefly tonight into the
weekend as a front dissipates north of the islands and the ridge
lifts away to the north. Wind speeds may be strong enough in some
of the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big
Island by Saturday that a Small Craft Advisory could be warranted.
Winds will return to mostly light and variable early next week,
ahead of a weakening front.

The next in a series of northwest swells will start to fill in
tonight, building quickly Saturday morning. This will push surf
heights into the High Surf Advisory (HSA) range, likely by
Saturday afternoon as the swell peaks. The swell will then slowly
lower through Monday. Another northwest pulse is expected to
arrive Tuesday morning, with solid HSA conditions expected Tuesday
into Wednesday. South shore surf will remain very small, with a
minimal boost possible tonight into the weekend. Small surf will
continue along east facing shores into early next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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