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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 270649

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

High pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate to
breezy trades through the next few days. Clouds and passing showers
will favor windward and mauka areas, with mainly dry conditions
leeward. The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see
clouds and widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening,
followed by clearing skies each night and morning. Wetter trade
wind weather is expected by the middle of the week.


Breezy trade winds prevail this evening with some passing showers
affecting mainly windward areas at times. The surface high pressure
system that is providing the winds will remain pretty much in place
for the early part of week. Latest satellite imagery revealed there
are more low clouds upstream east of the islands. These clouds will
reach the state through rest of the evening into early Monday
morning, bringing more passing showers affecting mainly windward
areas. There are also some high clouds passing over the state,
keeping skies cloudier at times. Mainly fair weather will continue
over lee areas of most of the islands, while lee area of the Big
Island will stay a little more cloudy and may even see a shower or
two as the daytime convection winds down.

Trade wind weather will reign across the state this week as surface
high pressure stays far north of the area. There will be variations
to this main weather theme though, as forecast models continue to
show a change in the upper level pattern in the coming days. By late
Tuesday to early Wednesday, an upper level trough is forecast to
develop just northwest of the islands, then linger at least through
early part of the weekend. This upper level feature will bring
colder air aloft, resulting in the airmass over the islands becoming
more unstable. Clouds will be enhanced under the more favorable
atmospheric conditions, increasing the potential for enhanced
showers and possible thunderstorm development for the second half of
the week. Furthermore, trade winds may ease slightly as the surface
high pressure far north may weaken slightly during the middle of the
week. Latest forecast models do indicate a stronger surface high
will rebuild far north-northeast of the state towards the weekend,
with trade winds firming up again.


Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in passing SHRA in windward
locales, with PHLI and PHTO the most likely TAF sites to be
impacted. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF forecast period.

Airmet TANGO is in effect for mechanical turbulence immediately
south through west of mountains on all islands below 8000 feet. This
will last through the night. Mountain obscuration is possible across
some windward areas later tonight, but is not in effect now.

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the typical coastal
waters in Maui county and the Big Island vicinity through Monday
due to the locally strong trade winds. Winds may drop enough for
conditions to improve by the middle of the week. But then, as the
trades are forecast to ramp up towards the weekend, small craft wind
conditions are posed to return to the coastal waters with possible
increase in the coverage.

A southerly swell has reached the islands earlier this evening and
will peak in the next couple of days, with below advisory level surf
expected for the south facing shores. The short-period trade wind
swell will continue and may further increase a bit toward the
weekend due to strengthening trades.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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