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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

164
FXHW60 PHFO 060630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS BUT MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST TO REBOUND WESTWARD. THIS IS STEEPENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN STEADILY INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET ALONG WITH CAPE OF
LESS THAN 200 J/KG. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN ON THE TRADES TOWARDS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ASSUME A
FAMILIAR TRADE WIND DISTRIBUTION FAVORING WINDWARD AREAS.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...LIKELY A TESTAMENT OF OUR RATHER STABLE AND DRIER THAN CLIMO
AIR MASS.

TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS BUT MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. MOST
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TRADE WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER TO
SELECT LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ARE MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS US IN A TRADE WIND REGIME WITH A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES. THIS COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT A SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND ON ITS
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS...AFFECTING PRIMARILY
THE WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS OF MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND...
VFR WILL BE THE FLYING RULE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ON TUESDAY OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURF
HEIGHTS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUOY DATA FOR SIGNS OF THIS NEW SWELL. OTHERWISE
A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING FOR SOME SMALL RIDEABLE WAVES ALONG EXPOSED
SHORELINES. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY
SURF TO INCREASE THIS WEEK ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...LAU




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