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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

806
FXHW60 PHFO 291346
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
346 AM HST Sat Jan 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rather dry conditions will persist into Monday. Moderate trade
winds have returned and will continue through tonight, then
decline and shift southeasterly on Sunday, with modest showers
focused over windward slopes. A front will stall and dissipate
near Kauai Monday and may lead to a slight increase of showers
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate trade winds have returned across many areas this morning
and this morning's radar imagery is showing a few light showers
riding in with the trade winds across windward and mountain areas.
Although there are a few light showers early this morning, a
mostly dry day is expected during the day today.

The trade winds will be short-lived as a front passing several
hundred miles northwest of the state will cause the winds to veer
toward the southeast and weaken on Sunday. Winds should decrease
enough for localized sea breezes, but due to the drier than
normal air mass in place we will likely see very little rainfall
with the afternoon clouds.

By Monday, the front is expected to be passing north of the state
and dissipating. Winds will decrease further with light and
variable winds expected on Monday. Afternoon sea breezes combined
with some remnant moisture from the front could produce some light
showers in the afternoon and evening on Monday. Starting late
Monday night into Tuesday, we could briefly see some light to
moderate northeasterly trade winds, which could bring in some
passing showers over windward and mountain areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds will hold in place across the island chain
today and tonight. Rather dry conditions are expected to
continue, with minimal shower activity limited to windward slopes
and coasts. VFR conditions should prevail during the next 24
hours, with brief MVFR cigs possible in passing light showers over
windward locales.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level
turbulence between FL240 AND FL370. This AIRMET will likely
continue through much of the day.



&&

.MARINE...
Trade winds have returned this morning as a front dissipates
north of the islands and the ridge lifts away to the north. Wind
speeds are expected to remain in the moderate range, though some
locally strong breezes are possible in some of the typically
windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds will
return to mostly light and variable early next week, ahead of a
weakening front.

A new northwest swell has begun to fill in early this morning at
the nearshore Hanalei buoy. This swell will build quickly this
morning, pushing surf heights into the High Surf Advisory (HSA)
range along north facing shores by this afternoon as the swell
peaks. At this time, we are keeping west facing shores out of the
advisory, but will monitor it through the day in case the swell
comes in larger than anticipated. The swell will hold tonight,
then slowly lower through Monday. Another, similarly- sized,
northwest pulse is expected to arrive Tuesday morning, with solid
HSA conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday. South shore surf
will remain very small, with a minimal boost through the weekend.
Small surf will continue along east facing shores into early next
week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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