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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

468
FXHW60 PHFO 052001
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1001 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES INTO THE
WEEKEND. ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MAY
BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND TURN NORTH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. GUSTY NNE ARE BRINGING A COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WITH SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO
WINDWARD AREAS. NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN
INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI AREAS... INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER WOULD
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
DISCUSSED ABOVE WITH LESS AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE COMING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS
OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED WIND WARNING AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOD TURB DUE TO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE. AN AIRMET IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER LEEWARD KAUAI. BOTH AIRMETS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT
AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.

LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT ICING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND BUT
THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TODAY AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA.

EXPECT PERIODS OF ISOL MVFR CIGS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD PARTS OF THE
ISLAND...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
STATE. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE
WEEK. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON





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