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Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

595
FXHW60 PHFO 070643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
843 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS OAHU THIS EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO
SETTLE OVER THE STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS
THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 8 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING ACROSS OAHU...AND IS MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MORE PREVALENT WITHIN AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVER
MAUI COUNTY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FILLED
IN ACROSS KAUAI...WHERE THE HIGHEST GUST OBSERVED THUS FAR HAS
BEEN 39 MPH AT BARKING SANDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A LOW NEAR 33N146W...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 160W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH
ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...AND A
NARROW STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO WARNING LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO
THE PASSING TROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...PASSING OVER MAUI COUNTY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE
SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND NORTHERN/WINDWARD PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
FRONT ALONG WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH FACING SLOPES/COASTS OF KAUAI AND
OAHU. WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS KAUAI THUS FAR SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF PEAK GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE AND BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER GUSTS ON
KAUAI IN AREAS LACKING WIND GAUGES...PARTICULARLY AROUND WAIMEA
CANYON. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING WIND OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS ADDITIONAL ISLANDS. THE
EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S THIS EVENING WHILE THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...
BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...PUSHING SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT GFS/EC RUNS KEEP THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODELS SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND ALLOWING SE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE SEA BREEZE PATTERN
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT
NEARBY AROUND MIDWEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONT PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAIN ISLAND CHAIN...ALONG
WITH A PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...IS
SPREADING A PALL OF LOW CEILINGS AND THE THREAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AS IT GOES. AIRMET TANGO FOR TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT BELOW
10000 FEET AND FROM 14000 TO 22000 FEET. AIRMET SIERRA IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000 FEET. THESE FLIGHT
HAZARDS WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES. TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT
AFFECTED ISLAND TAF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON
MONDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL


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