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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

336
FXHW60 PHFO 250630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF
THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES...INCLUDING
THE HONOLULU METRO AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH.
STABLE MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
STRONGER TRADES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR NNE OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND KEEPING A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE
TONIGHT. RATHER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP FEEDING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
BUT SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT
TIMES...INCLUDING THE HONOLULU METRO AREA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA DEPICT A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE ISLANDS MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES NE OF MAUI. MEANWHILE...A
WEAKER BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS ALSO SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE TO KEEP A RELATIVELY ACTIVE TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN THE LARGER FRONTAL BAND REACHES
THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT RAINFALL COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS....EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WITH PASSING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NNE OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENING
AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH FAR NW OF
THE AREA LIFTS OUT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE HIGH TO INTENSIFY...
BRINGING STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THUS...POTENTIALLY STRONGER TRADES COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. PASSING TRADE WIND CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WILL PROVIDE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LEEWARD AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE
WINDIER CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

REYNES



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