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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

755
FXHW60 PHFO 311344
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
344 AM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG WITH BREEZY TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...SPILLING INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE RAPID MOTION HAS PREVENTED ANY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DISSIPATING FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...WITH A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...
WITH SOME CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTHEAST OF MAUI...AND WITHIN THE REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. MIMIC-TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING FRONT LYING ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
WERE QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS UP
TO AROUND 700 MB...BUT WERE VERY DRY ABOVE.

FOR TODAY...WOULD EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS DUE TO THE BRISK TRADE
WIND FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT
WILL PROBABLY PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE
STATE...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF MAUI.

TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY DISSIPATED FRONT
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS ACTIVE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATELINE WILL FORCE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE...WITH
SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE
DEEP TROPICS OVER OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS THEN DISSIPATES THE
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BY NEXT THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADES SHOULD INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER PATTERN CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE AIRMET FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL CONTINUE. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ARE NOW STAYING ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN FACT...A FEW CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS LINE AT THIS TIME...WITH CB TOPS FL350. EXPECT
THESE ACTIVITIES TO BE LIMITED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS
AREAS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BAND WILL SPREAD TO THE ISLANDS
AT TIMES...AND PROVIDING SOME PASSING SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SITES...BUT THEN PASSING LOW CLOUDS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS REVEALED DRIER
CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE THE MENTION OF LIGHT ICING
WILL BE DROPPED AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF NORTH SWELL AND TRADE DRIVEN WIND WAVES CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. ANOTHER
REINFORCING NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES. SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS...BUT INTERPOLATION FROM AVAILABLE DATA ALONG WITH LAND
BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
CONTINUING ACROSS MANY AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS
POSTED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY...BUT SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL- ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HUI




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