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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

869
FXHW60 PHFO 270226 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRIME FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. EXPECTING THAT ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT IN SPOTS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
TREND TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AS MANY OF MODELS
ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM USING ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND USING A BLEND OF MODELS APPROACH. THUS
FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC OVER NE AND MTN SECTIONS ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS.
AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD
TURB IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON




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