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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

978
FXHW60 PHFO 281531 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TRADES WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY AS A NEW HIGH MOVES NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WINDWARD SLOPES. SOME SHOWERS WILL SPREAD LEEWARD OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY FORM
OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST RIDGE IS NEARLY STATIONARY 600
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A FRONT NEAR MIDWAY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

A NEW HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE INTO
POSITION NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY AND TRADE WINDS
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN.

THERE ARE NO MAJOR RAINFALL PRODUCERS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BUT THE TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO SPREAD LEEWARD ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT NEAR MIDWAY
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
TRADE WINDS AND MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE TRADES.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE WINDWARD SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. THE
TIMING ON THIS IS UNCERTAIN. THE 28/00 UTC EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 28/00 UTC GFS
MODEL BRINGS THE INCREASED SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB IN
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. AIRMET TANGO
WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS AND TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WINDIER
COASTAL ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. AS WINDS
SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR US TO DROP THE
SCA. WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN BACK TO SCA LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ARE IN STORE
THIS WEEK...WHILE MODERATE...SHORT-PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL
CONTINUES. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES MAY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A SWELL FROM EAST OF NEW ZEALAND REACHES THE ISLANDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
PAILOLO CHANNEL AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$
DONALDSON

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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