Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook West Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 925 FXHW60 PHFO 260630 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST SAT MAY 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS CARRYING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TRADES WILL DECREASE A BIT AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE ISLANDS MAY ALSO SEE MORE ENHANCED SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PASSES OVER THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION... A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS RIDING ALONG THE TRADE WINDS HAS REACHED THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS BAND IS SEEN SAGGING SOUTH...AND WILL BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO MAUI AND BIG ISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH LESS ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY AND WILL PROVIDE SOME PASSING SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. A DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SHOWERS IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH WEAKENS. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH AND TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AS A RESULT. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE STATE WILL LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF TRADE WIND INVERSION...THUS ALLOWING CLOUDS TO HAVE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THE ISLANDS MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS BY THEN. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STABLE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...THUS DRIER TRADE WIND MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BUT WILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH. IN ALL...TRADE WIND WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE STATE. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS CONDITIONS ON WINDWARD AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND IMT S THRU W OF MOUNTAINS BELOW 080. THIS AIRMET MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS THE KAIWI CHANNEL. AS THE WINDS REMAIN ROBUST THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL NEXT WORK WEEK...WHEN THE WINDS EASE A BIT. A SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL WILL INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PERSIST. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE ALENUIHAHA...PAILOLO...AND KAIWI CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ HUI Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students. It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC Send comments to: Ryan Lyman