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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

725
FXHW60 PHFO 221930
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO BRING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE LOCATED FAR
NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA IS JUTS S OF THE
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL KEEP A RATHER
LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE DEPICT A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH RATHER WELL DEFINED INVERSIONS
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES...WITH PLENTY OF SMALL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE E/SE. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFT TO LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BIG ISLAND MAY PROVIDE SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING SE FLOW
TODAY WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND AREAS...AND
LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
WINDWARD WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BACKGROUND
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD BUILDUPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL ALONG SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
ANOTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON






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