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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

994
FXHW60 PHFO 040354 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
554 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO 5 PM HST ADVISORY
PACKAGE.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 510 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITHIN
THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL



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