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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

462
FXHW60 PHFO 311951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
951 AM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE LATE MORNING WHILE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE A DECREASE IN LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DISSIPATED FRONT AS
A 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE
EAST PACIFIC. A SEPARATE BAND OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND WILL BRING RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDS TO
WINDWARD AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS USHERING IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP WINDWARD RAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSING LEEWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
WEEKEND... AND TRADE WINDS WILL DROP GRADUALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRADES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD COLD FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPO MT OBSC TO KAUAI...AND
COULD SPREAD TO OAHU AND MOLOKAI AS WELL. WILL BE WATCHING THAT
CLOSELY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LURKING JUST OUTSIDE THE FA
REGION BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THIS AREA LOOKS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND CB TOPS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW FL400 NOW. DID
ISSUE A SIGMET FOR THIS AREA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO MAJOR
AIRCRAFT ROUTES...BUT LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO
REISSUE AT 2040Z.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE HIGH
GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY TO THE NE...RADAR VWPS SHOWING 20-35 KT TRADES
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB
IN PLACE FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF NORTH SWELL AND TRADE DRIVEN WIND WAVES CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. ANOTHER
REINFORCING NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES. SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY...BUT SCA
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THOSE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCCUSSION AND MARINE
R BALLARD...AVIATION




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