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Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

650
FXHW60 PHFO 080656
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A COOL POOL
OF AIRMASS SPREAD OVER THE STATE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE A
FEW STABLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS
ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. DEW POINTS REPORTED
AROUND THE STATE RANGE FROM MID 40S THROUGH THE 50S...WHICH ARE
RATHER LOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES.

WINDS REMAIN AT WARNING LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THIS
EVENING...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE
SUMMITS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES.

CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...THEREFORE THE EARLIER AIRMET FOR
THAT AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO ADDITIONAL AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS rest of TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING SWELL
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED
PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$


AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI


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It was last modified on: Tue, Aug 25 2015 - 2342 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman