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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 270205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
405 PM HST Wed Jan 26 2022

Expect a rather dry weather pattern over the islands through the
weekend, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will decrease tonight through
Friday as a front approaches and stalls northwest of the state.
Trades will strengthen over the weekend. However, winds may become
light and variable early next week as a front moves near the
islands, potentially increasing shower coverage.


A front remains nearly stationary north of main Hawaiian Islands,
while a high far north of the state slides steadily eastward. The
pressure gradient across the islands is just steep enough to
induce moderate to breezy trades across local waters near Maui and
the Big Island. Winds are lighter farther to the west. Satellite
loop shows scant cloud cover across the islands this afternoon
while radar shows little or no shower activity. Afternoon
soundings show a dry airmass, with less than an inch of PW.

Models show the high will continue to slide eastward. This will
maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the islands
tonight. A front will approach and stall northwest of the state,
easing the trades through Friday. Light and variable winds are
expected to develop over the western islands, allowing development
of overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes near Kauai and
Oahu. Light to moderate trades will hold over the eastern end of
the state. A stronger high will build north of the islands Friday
night through early Sunday, bumping trades back into the moderate
to locally breezy range for the eastern islands. Trades will
decrease again Monday as a new front stalls near the western
islands, with light and variable winds expected statewide,
possibly lingering through Tuesday.

As high pressure to the NE of the islands moves away, local
background winds are beginning to transition to a SE flow which
will leave many areas in a light sea breeze pattern overnight.
This should lead to some clearing overnight especially for
interior and leeward areas. The airmass is stable and rather dry
so some cloudiness and a few stray showers should be limited to
mainly E and SE facing slopes overnight, with brief and localized
MVFR possible. Otherwise predominantly VFR.

Planning to drop AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence as the
background flow decreases. Will probably need to issue a higher
level turbulence AIRMET for turbulence around FL400 this evening
based on eddy dissipation rate and Ellrod guidance.

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue tonight, with
winds holding at or near advisory levels in the typically windy
waters around Maui County and the Big Island. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is posted for these waters through tonight,
although winds are expected to be trending down.

A front to the NE will move E while a high pressure system behind
the front will move to the east, following by another front
approaching from the northwest at the end of the week. This front
will push the ridge towards the western islands, causing winds to
ease Thursday and Friday for the western coastal waters and the
northwestern offshore waters. Moderate to fresh trades will make a
return for much of the weekend, before another approaching front
weakens and turns winds southeasterly early next week for the
western waters.

A reinforcing northwest swell is filling in tonight, as offshore
buoys to the northwest has begun to rise slightly this morning,
and may push surf heights back up to near advisory levels along
exposed north and west facing shores through Thursday. Surf will
lower to well below seasonal levels by Friday. The next in a
series of northwest swells should arrive Friday night and may once
again push surf up into the advisory range along north and west
facing shores on the weekend with a downward trend then expected
early next week.

Very small surf is expected along east facing shores into the
weekend. South shore surf will remain very small through Thursday,
with a small boost possible Friday through the weekend.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 pm HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.



AVIATION...R Ballard

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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