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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

510
FXHW60 PHFO 180100
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
300 PM HST Wed Aug 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable and relatively dry trade wind pattern will return to the
area on Thursday as trades slowly strengthen, becoming locally
breezy by Thursday night or Friday morning and continuing through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms focused mainly over Oahu and the Big
Island respectively will dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating
this evening. As trades build back into the area from east to west,
regional visible imagery indicates a modest band of moisture
positioned immediately east of the Big Island at press time. This
band will bring a slight uptick in showers over windward portions of
Maui and the Big Island tonight, but will otherwise lift through the
area with little fanfare. The next several days will then be
characterized by a return to a typical trade wind pattern as
subtropical ridging reestablishes upstream and subsequently
strengthens the governing surface high over the northeast Pacific
basin. A slow but steady strengthening of trade winds can be
expected during the next 24-36 hours with locally breezy trades
established by Thursday night or Friday morning. Departure of the
resident upper low as it meanders westward combined with an influx
of dry mid-level air evident on the latest CIMSS PWAT imagery will
ensure trades remain on the drier side of normal into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...

With a weak ridge north of the islands, trade winds will be light
to moderate into Wednesday. This regime will result in localized
sea breezes during the afternoon and early evening hours, and land
breezes developing overnight. Most locales will be VFR, with only
isolated MVFR possible in the afternoon hours in showers. The Big
Island is the most likely area to see heavier showers, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms, during the afternoon and early
evening time frame.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...

A ridge persists north of the islands and will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds through early Thursday morning. Light winds
will allow for development of local land and sea breezes. Terrain-
induced wind acceleration may produce pockets of choppy sea
conditions near some coasts during the afternoon hours. The ridge
will build and shift to the north starting Thursday, causing trade
winds to strengthen. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely
occur across the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands
of Maui County and the Big Island from Thursday through this
weekend.

Small south and southeast swells are expected to produce below
typical summertime surf heights along south facing shores into
Friday. Forerunners from a new, long-period south swell are
expected to arrive late Friday night. This swell will likely
produce near to slightly above normal surf along south facing
shores from this weekend into early next week. Surf will remain
small along east facing shores during the next few days due to
weak trade winds. As trade winds strengthen later this week,
modest, choppy surf will return along east facing shores, lasting
from this weekend into early next week. Expect nearly flat
conditions to persist along north facing shores through tonight.
Small, short-period north-northwest swells starting Thursday may
provide a slight boost in surf heights along exposed north facing
shores through this weekend. Models show a slightly larger and
longer period northwest swell may arrive early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Powell

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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