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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 251934
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
934 AM HST SAT JUN 25 2016
Drier conditions are expected later today as an area of clouds and
showers moves west of the islands. High pressure far north of the
islands will keep moderate to breezy trades blowing across local
waters into next week. Clouds and showers will generally favor
windward and mauka areas. Kona slopes on the Big Island will see
increased cloud cover and showers each afternoon and evening.
A 1033 MB high near 38N166W, far northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands, has an associated ridge extending east through 41N135W
and easterly trade flow dominates south of this ridge. An area of
showery low clouds embedded within this flow continues to affect
much of the main island chain this morning, with breezy trade flow
pushing showers across to leeward areas at times. Satellite loop
strongly suggests that the bulk of these showers will move west of
the islands by this afternoon, and drier air is expected to move
in and last through at least the next several days.
Models show the ridge to our north will persist through the
forecast period, with the anchoring high strengthening slightly
and shifting a bit eastward. This will keep trade winds blowing
across local waters, focusing clouds and showers across windward
and mauka areas of the islands. The main exception will be across
kona slopes of the Big Island, where the combination of return
flow and daytime heating will cause cloud and shower coverage to
increase each afternoon and evening. Nights and early mornings
will be clearer and drier there.
A wetter trade wind pattern may develop by midweek, when models
develop a mid level trough near or just west of the main island
chain and bring an area of enhanced moisture in from the east.
A band of low clouds that had been over the area is now moving
away to the SW. VFR will prevail over most areas. No AIRMETs are
in effect, and none are anticipated.
Locally strong winds continue across the typically windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island this morning. The small
craft advisory in effect for these areas continues through
tonight, but may need to be extended through the remainder of the
weekend in later packages. The small craft advisory for Kauai
northwest waters continues through this afternoon. In addition to
the strong trades in these areas, the latest nearshore wave model
guidance depicts maximum seas nearing advisory levels across the
Alenuihaha Channel by Sunday night, which will need to be
monitored as the weekend continues.
Rough surf will continue along the east facing beaches through
the weekend and into early next week due to strong trade winds
south of high pressure centered north of the state. Although the
southern Pacific has been active over the past several days, the
bulk of the energy will continue to pass Hawaii off to the
southeast as it heads toward the Americas. After another small
southerly pulse moves through Sunday night through Tuesday with
below advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of small
surf seems likely through the remainder of the upcoming week and
much of the first week of July.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman