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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 291949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
949 AM HST Mon May 29 2017

Light winds with land and sea breezes will continue one more day as
a weak pressure pattern lingers in the island vicinity. A few
windward showers will reach the area under the light easterly winds,
with clouds and showers shifting to leeward and interior areas in
the afternoon. Trade winds will return on Tuesday or Tuesday night,
becoming breezy toward the weekend. Passing showers will mainly
affect windward and mountain areas.


An upper low is centered 300 miles northeast of Hilo, but tracking
away from the islands. A trough reflected at the surface is
located over the island chain bringing a light wind regime across
the area. Early morning soundings show precipitable water (PW) values
ranging from a relatively dry 0.98 inches at Lihue to near normal
1.31 inches at Hilo. Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies
over the island this morning and should continue through the
morning hours.

By this afternoon, sea breezes will set in and bring cloud build
ups across all of the island interiors. Some showers will be
possible, but the greatest chance will be over Maui County and the
Big Island where the higher PW values and nearby upper low are located.
Without the trades, another warm and humid day is on tap. Land breezes
will set in tonight and suppress the cloud cover and showers.

High pressure will build north of the state Tuesday, and will
bring trade winds back to the islands, though it may take until
Tuesday night for the winds to reach Kauai and Oahu (so one more
day of localized sea breezes may be possible for Tuesday).

Low clouds and showers carried by the winds will affect mainly
windward and mountain areas through the remainder of the week.
Trades are expected to strengthen late in work week as the high
strengthens. Forecast solutions indicated a somewhat stable
airmass will prevail in the island vicinity, with not much change
in the low level moisture. Therefore, expect the typical windward
and mauka showers for the rest of the week, with a few more
showers passing to leeward sides of the smaller islands late in
the week as the trades strengthen.


A weak high pressure ridge to the north of the islands will keep
the Hawaiian area in a light east to southeast trade wind pattern
through Tuesday. Expect onshore sea breezes in the daytime with
cloud ceilings over interior and western slopes and offshore land
breezes with diminishing cloud cover in the overnight period.
Showers will favor the coastal waters and windward areas during
the overnight and early morning hours, and the interior of the
islands during the afternoon and evening. Some brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible in SHRA over the island interiors this
afternoon/evening, but predominantly VFR conditions are forecast.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.


The record-breaking high water levels experienced each day over
the weekend due to a combination of a large south swell and King
Tides have begun to trend down and will continue to do so through
the week. Coastal flooding impacts around these late
afternoon/early evening high tides will likely occur again this
evening before conditions trend back to normal or even slightly
below by the end of this week.

The large south swell that peaked Saturday will continue to ease
into Tuesday, but remain somewhat elevated through this morning.
Onshore winds are expected to fill in by noon and continue through
the afternoon period as the surf fades. A series of small
background southerly pulses moving through will keep the surf
small, but not flat along south facing shores each day through
the upcoming weekend. For the long range, no significant southerly
swells are expected through the first week of June.

An out of season small to moderate north-northwest (330 deg) swell
associated with a gale that tracked far north of the state is
forecast to fill in Monday night across the local waters. This
swell should peak Tuesday well below advisory levels, then trend
down into the second half of the week.

Light winds with land-sea breeze conditions will prevail near the
coasts into Tuesday morning due to a weak surface trough located
near the Big Island and northwest of Kauai. Trade winds will
gradually return Tuesday through midweek as high pressure builds
north of the area. Small craft advisory conditions will likely
result due to strong winds beginning Tuesday night and persisting
through the rest of the week. These stronger winds are expected to
setup over the channels, Maalaea Bay and south of the Big Island.
As a result, rough and choppy surf along east facing shores is
expected through the second half of the week and into the upcoming






Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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