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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

216
FXHW60 PHFO 261345
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will continue as a high pressure persists
to our north through early next week. Passing low clouds and showers
will favor windward and mauka areas. A pair of tropical systems
expected to move westward across the central Pacific may affect the
main Hawaiian Islands beginning late next week, possibly bringing
more active weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface high pressure residing far north-northeast of the islands
is bringing moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the state
early this morning. Low cloud coverage did increase across the area
as more upstream low clouds reached the state under the trade winds.
Much of the showers are affecting mainly windward and mountain
areas. Early morning Lihue sounding indicated a drier but slightly
unstable airmass in the vicinity while unsurprisingly, Hilo sounding
is more moisture due to the cloudiness since Thursday evening.
Expect trade wind weather to continue to today, with passing low
clouds and showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas.

The high to our north will persist through early next week and
maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds to the islands.
Forecast models indicate a somewhat stable airmass with no expansive
area of moisture expected for the same period. Therefore, typical
trade wind weather is expected to prevail through the weekend into
early next week for the state.

Latest forecast models still pointed to the possibility of a pair of
tropical cyclones moving westward across the central Pacific later
next week. It is still too early to tell what, if any, weather
impacts these will have on the islands. The National Hurricane
Center in Miami continues to track these systems at this time. The
first of these systems could cross 140W into the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center's area of responsibility as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue today. Model
soundings show the low level inversion starting to build back in.
The 12Z sounding from PHTO shows an elevated inversion around 10
kft, but the balloon likely went through a shower. The 12Z sounding
from PHLI shows a pair of weak inversions near 4.6 kft and 7.2 kft.
There is no AIRMET TANGO for low level turbulence posted at this
time, as the inversion strength still remains relatively weak and
the winds are peaking just under the threshold. This will be
monitored throughout the day.

Trade winds will carry clouds and showers to predominately windward
and mountain areas. Satellite imagery shows an patch of a bit more
showery clouds reaching the islands now. Expect passing showers
through the morning hours with tempo MVFR to possibly isol IFR
conditions. Cloud and shower coverage should decrease into the
afternoon. AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration remains poised for
windward Big Island from leftover moisture last night. This will be
tailored as needed.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters vicinity of Maui
county and the Big Island has been extended to early Saturday due to
the locally breezy trade winds. As the moderate winds are expected
to prevail, this advisory may need to be extended and adjusted over
the weekend.

Surf along eastern facing shores is expected to edge up slightly
through the weekend as the short period trade wind swell increases
under the stronger winds. Otherwise, no significant surf is expected
through early next week. By the middle of next week, long period
easterly swell generated by the potential tropical cyclone activity
east of Hawaii may begin to affect the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Eaton
Rest...Hui

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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