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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

303
FXHW60 PHFO 231950
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS MODEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LEEWARD
AREAS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE KONA COAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ENHANCED MOISTURE REACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE NORTH.
THE WET TRADE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1023 MB CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS DRIVING A
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. TRADES WILL HOLD AROUND
CURRENT STRENGTH INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS NORTH OF THE
STATE.

A STABLE TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING CLOUDS AND MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS...AS WELL AS KONA SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO INCREASE SHOWERS OVER AND AROUND KAUAI TODAY AS MOISTURE
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABSENCE OF A DEFINITIVE INVERSION...BUT MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD IS PRODUCING STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
DEEP EASTERLIES. WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT MODEST SHOWERS TO BE FOCUSED ON WINDWARD
SLOPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
DECAYING FRONT CURRENTLY 350 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND STALL OVER THE ISLANDS AS A SHEAR LINE. THE ACTIVE
SHOWER PATTERN WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT WITH
SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES.
MODELS ALSO DEPICT A POSSIBLE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
WHICH COULD FURTHER ENERGIZE SHOWERS ALONG THE SHEAR LINE AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD HEAVY SHOWER WORDING
TO ANY SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THIS
MORNING...REMNANT CONVERGENT BAND MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI. EXPECT THIS TO
TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ISOL
MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN SHOWERS.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN IS POSTED.
VAD WIND PROFILES AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PERSISTENT 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL 25 TO 30 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDER LINE TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY
EASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHEAR LINE. AS THE SHEAR
LINE DROPS OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...TRADE WINDS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE COULD BE PERIODICALLY ENHANCED.

NO BIG SWELLS ARE IN STORE. A SERIES OF SMALL...ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET...
SWELLS FROM THE NNW TO NNE WILL PASS THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE FIRST OF
A PAIR OF SSW SWELLS OF AROUND 2 FEET WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...
WITH SIMILAR SIZED SWELL LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE
IN ROUGH...TRADE WIND DRIVEN SEAS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...MAINLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH EAST SHORE SURF REMAINING BELOW THE
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON









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