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Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

842
FXHW60 PHFO 121418
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
418 AM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TURNS BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN UPON NEARING KAUAI THEN EASE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BRINGING AN UPTICK
OF TRADE SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. BLUSTERY AND
GUSTY TRADES WILL ALSO BE SPREADING ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS AN UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS CAME FROM
A DISSIPATED FRONT THAT STALLED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING
ON OAHU AND KAUAI WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LEEWARD AND SOUTHERN SHORELINE. MEANWHILE THAT BAND OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BE REACHING THE PUNA DISTRICT
VERY SHORTLY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
THIS BAND WILL SKIP ON OVER TO MAUI COUNTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
AND MAY REACH OAHU THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY VEER
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST RESULTING IN A HYBRID MIX OF LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLYWIND AND SEA BREEZES LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

THE BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES WILL BE SCALED BACK FROM MAUI COUNTY
EASTWARD TO WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT ON...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE
BREEZY TRADES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND IS SLATED TO LAST UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING TO MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY...THE WIND TURNS BACK TO EASTERLIES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING KAUAI. THE WIND CONTINUES TO BECOME
NORTHEAST AND STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THEN THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND FOLLOWS IN EASES ON TO
KAUAI MONDAY FOLLOWED BY OAHU MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO MVFR IN
LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WARNING LEVEL SURF HAS LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF A FEW SELECTED ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY
TRADES. SOME OF THESE MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT AT 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BUT THE SCA COVERING THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE EXTENDED TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. THE SCA COULD BE LOWERED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE SHORTLIVE AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENS
TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL WINDWARD
WATERS...LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI AND OAHU INCLUDING THE KAUAI KAIWI
AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAALAEA BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...KINEL


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