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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

935
FXHW60 PHFO 262023
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1023 AM HST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DESTABILIZING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY,
DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AND ALLOWING OUR
AIRMASS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE. HOWEVER, SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHTER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE STATE COUPLED WITH
PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...MAINLY OVER KAUAI. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE KAUAI CHANNEL. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AS
THE MORNING HAS PROGRESSED AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE EASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFT FURTHER EAST.

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THE PASSING TROUGH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTALBOUNDARY
SLOWLY PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE CAUSING THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO
FURTHER WEAKEN.

MODELS INDICATE DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RESULT
IN ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE
FROM KILAUEA TO SPREAD OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. WE EXPECT TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN STARTING ON MEMORIAL DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE TRADES MAY REMAIN LIGHTER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK SINCE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
SHOWERS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN
VCSH ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
OAHU, MOLOKAI AND MAUI. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE HERE LATER THIS
MORNING, AND THE AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A MODERATE SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE TASMAN SEA IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY, THEN DECLINE DURING THE
WEEKEND. SINCE THERE ARE SO MANY ISLANDS ALONG THE PATH OF THE
SWELL, SURF IS LIKELY TO BE INCONSISTENT. SEE THE THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST (SRDHFO) FOR
DETAILS ON THIS SWELL. OTHERWISE RATHER SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL/CW
AVIATION...CW

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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