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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

938
FXHW60 PHFO 300141
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
341 PM HST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT TRADES TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. A NEW HIGH WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION...BUMPING
TRADE WINDS UP AGAIN FOR THE NEW WEEK. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS...WITH AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. A BATCH OF
CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS PARTICULARLY
TO THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WERE ALSO TWEAKED TO BE A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS HAS AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE DUE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST...PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW. AS IS DOES SO...THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN A TOUCH OVER THE ISLANDS. BY SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
AND STRENGTHEN...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS...WITH TRADES REBOUNDING TO CURRENT LEVELS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO BE AROUND
STARTING MIDWEEK AS THAT MOISTURE ARRIVES.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. IN EITHER CASE...LOW
LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THAT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE IN
THE GRIDS. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FURTHER CHANGES...
PARTICULARLY WITH WIND SPEEDS AS THE EVENT DETAILS GET WORKED OUT
WITH FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB. AMDAR REPORTS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS INTO AND OUT OF PHOG...MAINLY BELOW 4 KFT.
THIS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AS OF
0200Z...MOST AREAS ARE CARRYING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.
COOLING TRENDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE CHANCES
FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD AREAS...AND WE ARE NOT ABLE TO
RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSC LATER TONIGHT
FOR SELECT AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES FOR SOME OF THE WINDIER
ZONES...BUT A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS ARE DOWN. THE SCA WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPED OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IF ONLY
FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN TO MODERATE
LEVELS.

SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...EXPECT SURF TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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