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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

659
FXHW60 PHFO 220210
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
410 PM HST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry pattern is expected through Friday, with only a few
clouds and showers developing over interior and mountain areas
during the afternoons. A front is expected to stall and weaken
near Kauai Friday night, with trades then briefly returning over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure about 125 miles north of Kauai will
shift south and over the state tonight in response to a front
passing far north of the state. As a result, light winds and
stable weather conditions are expected over the next several days
as the ridge persists. Light winds will allow a land and sea
breeze regime to setup through Friday. Rain chances will remain
limited due to the dry atmosphere and strong subsidence from the
ridge. The best chance for clouds and light showers will be across
interior areas during the afternoon hours each day.

A second front will pass north of the state Thursday into Friday
with the tail end of the front approaching Kauai. The front is
expected to dissipate as it reaches Kauai late Friday and bring a
uptick in showers late Friday and possibly through the weekend.
Trade winds are expected to briefly return over the weekend as a
weak high quickly passes north of the state. Another front passing
far north of the state early next week may bring the return of
light winds and land and sea breezes.


&&

.AVIATION...
Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail across the island chain and no AIRMETs are in
effect.

Winds have continued to weaken this morning across the Aloha
State and will continue to as a surface high moves away from our
area. With the surface front pulling away, weak trade winds will
shift to the southeast, and a daytime sea breeze/nighttime land
breeze pattern will continue through the week.

Due to relatively stable and dry conditions across Hawaii, no
AIRMETs are in effect and are not anticipated at this time.



&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the northeast of the area will provide light to
moderate SE trade winds tonight. Over the next couple of days,
the high will move east, allowing for lighter winds to push across
the islands from west to east, then remain light and variable
into Friday. A large northwest swell will increase seas above 10
feet starting Wednesday, so a Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for waters exposed to this swell and goes into effect Wednesday
morning. A new high will bring trade winds back over the weekend.

A large, long-period northwest swell is expected to arrive late
tonight, peak Wednesday night, then lower into Friday. The WW3
indicates surf heights reaching High Surf Warning (HSW) levels
along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands
Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday. The HSW may
need to be expanded later tonight or Wednesday to include west
facing shores of the Big Island. A High Surf Warning has been
issued and goes into effect Wednesday morning. Surf will likely
continue at least at advisory level Thursday night and Friday.
Then another large northwest swell is expected to build late
Friday, peak Saturday at warning levels as well, then lower
through Sunday.

Small background south swells will remain through the weekend. With
the expected drop off in trade winds over the next few days, short
period choppy surf will diminish along east facing shores. Some
south and east facing shores may see localized higher surf from
the large northwest swells refracting around islands and reefs.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM HST Thursday for
north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and
north facing shores of Maui.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM HST for most
Hawaiian Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino/Donaldson
AVIATION...EV/Dye
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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