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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 011344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
344 AM HST Mon Jun 1 2020

Breezy trades will decrease over the next few days as high
pressure to our north drifts eastward. Showers will begin to
increase as moisture from an old front rides in with the weakening
trades. Breezy trade wind weather will return during the second
half of the week, with scattered showers focused over windward and
mauka areas and generally dry weather expected over most leeward


High pressure north of the state is driving moderate trade winds
across local waters this morning. Overnight soundings show our
airmass remains stable, with positive lifted index values.
However, a passing band of low clouds increased PW values into the
1.3 to 1.6 inch range. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers
within this ragged cloud band, which lingers across Maui and the
Big Island.

Trade winds have decreased a bit from yesterday afternoon and
will continue to decrease into Tuesday as the high north of the
state shifts to our northeast. Winds may briefly become light
enough for sea breezes mid day Tuesday. As the trades weaken,
moisture from an old front will move in and fuel increased showers
over windward and mauka areas tonight through Tuesday night.
Leeward areas could see a few passing showers, mainly during the
overnight and early morning hours.

A new high will build north of the state Wednesday, prompting a
return of locally breezy trades by Wednesday afternoon. Typical
summertime weather, with breezy trade winds and light to moderate
showers focused over windward and mauka areas, is expected through
the weekend.


High pressure north of the state will continue to generate
moderate trades across the area this morning. Thus, expect
scattered shower development mainly to occur along the windward
side of the islands. Periods of MVFR conditions will likely
accompany this shower activity with lowered ceilings and
visibility. Similar conditions are expected this afternoon
with scattered showers along windward and isolated activity for

AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for north thru east sections of
the Big Island above 2000 feet due to lowered ceilings and


High pressure north of the state is maintaining moderate trade
winds across the area. The high is forecast to move off to a
position far northeast of the area later today into tonight,
resulting in a marginal decrease in wind speeds. The high is then
forecast to build back in to our north Wednesday, with trade winds
increasing once again into the locally breezy range.

With the winds having eased a bit since last evening as the high
moves away, the Small Craft Advisory that had been in effect has
been cancelled for the Alenuihaha Channel.

Surf along south facing shores will remain slightly elevated
through the day as a series of southerly swells move through the
area. A larger and longer period south swell is expected to fill
in tonight, peak during the late Tuesday through Wednesday time
period, then lower gradually Thursday through Friday. A High Surf
Advisory will likely be needed along south facing shores of all
islands. A smaller long period south swell is expected to arrive
by the weekend.

A series of small north and northwest swells are on tap through
most of the week, keeping surf above summertime flatness levels.
With the expected decrease in trade winds across the area, surf
will remain on the small side along east facing shores until the
trades pick up during the second half of the week.






Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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