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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

547
FXHW60 PHFO 020159
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 PM HST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy trade winds will persist through at least Tuesday morning
and lower to breezy speeds during the second half of the week.
Passing showers will continue to be focused over windward and
mountain areas over the next several days. A wet trade wind
pattern is expected Thursday night into the weekend as an upper
level disturbance moves over the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1042 mb high far north of the state will maintain windy trades
through at least Tuesday morning and the Wind Advisory has been
extended through early Tuesday morning. For the most part, winds
will remain fairly windy through Tuesday and the Wind Advisory may
need to be extended through the day Tuesday. Winds are expected
to decrease to breezy speeds during the second half of the week.
Trade winds may strengthen once again over the weekend into early
next week.

As far as precipitation, afternoon soundings from Lihue and Hilo
show a drier air mass with a more pronounced inversion at roughly
7000 feet. Showers will continue to be focused over windward and
mountain areas primarily during the mornings and nights, but
rainfall intensities will generally be light to moderate. The next
notable increase in showers will likely occur Thursday night
through the weekend as moisture from an old frontal boundary moves
in across the state. At the same time, an upper level trough will
move through the state and will bring unstable conditions across
the state. A wet trade wind pattern is expected Thursday night
through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
Flight category has improved across The Islands this afternoon as
drier air has become entrenched across the area. Some improvement
in low-level moisture tonight will lead to renewed expansion of
windward shower activity and the potential for MVFR. However,
drier mid-level air will limit intensity compared the last couple
of days. Breezy to locally strong trades will continue to be the
primary aviation hazard through Tuesday.


AIRMET Tango now includes tempo moderate mid-level turbulence
between FL220 and FL300 for the entire state due to a mid-level
trough that will slowly move through the state between this
afternoon and Tuesday night.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate to severe lee
turbulence. Tango also remains in effect for locally strong
surface winds.



&&

.MARINE...
Strong to locally gale force trade winds continue as strong high
pressure holds far north of the state. A Gale Warning is in effect
for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui
County, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains posted for all
remaining waters due to a combination of winds and large seas. The
surface high will weaken and be replaced by another surface high
far northwest of the islands on Tuesday, starting a short-lived
downward trend in the trade winds. The Gale Warning will be
dropped by Tuesday afternoon, and although winds will be on a
decline, the SCA will likely remain posted for all waters due to
lingering high seas Tuesday night. The SCA may be briefly and
entirely dropped by Wednesday as winds and seas decline to border
line SCA levels. Trade winds should increase again on Thursday and
Friday then hold through the weekend.

Large trade wind-driven seas will maintain high surf along east
facing shores into Wednesday. Nearshore buoys have been holding
at 10-12 ft at 10-11 seconds today, and these fully developed
seas will continue to produce rough east shore surf well above the
8 foot High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold into Tuesday. As trade
winds over and upstream of the islands weaken, east shore surf
will decline to border line HSA levels Wednesday, and the HSA will
likely be dropped by Thursday. Expect east shore surf to be just
below HSA levels late this week and during the weekend.

Surf will remain below advisory levels on other shores through
much of the week. Exposed portions of north and south facing
shores will pull in some wrapping trade wind swell and keep south
shore surf near winter average into Tuesday, followed by a
decline late Tuesday and Wednesday. A northwest swell will arrive
on Wednesday, peak on Friday, then shift out of the north and
decline during the weekend. The bulk of the swell will pass just
east of the state, though north shore surf on some islands may
reach HSA levels Friday and Saturday.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai-Oahu-Molokai-
Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui
Central Valley-Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-South Big
Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Windward-
Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward
Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East.

Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island
Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Wroe

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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