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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

186
FXHW60 PHFO 231946
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
946 AM HST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will remain nearly stationary near Kauai through tomorrow.
A front will move southeast over Kauai on Friday, then continue
southeast, past the Big Island by Saturday night. A high will
build north of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The surface analysis shows a northeast to southwest surface ridge
just northwest of Kauai. The ridge is forecast to remain nearly
stationary through tomorrow. This ridge will produce moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds near the Big Island and Maui.
There will be light to gentle southeast winds farther west, with
daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. A ridge aloft
over the islands will keep the atmosphere dry and stable. The
trade winds will push some clouds and showers over windward areas
of the Big Island and Maui, mainly during the night and morning
hours. Afternoon sea breezes will produce clouds over leeward
areas of the Big Island and Maui and over interior areas from
Lanai to Kauai. Rainfall amounts will be limited.

A front will move southeast over Kauai, continue southeast across
the rest of the islands and push southeast of the Big Island by
Saturday night. A band of showery low clouds along the front will
bring widespread showers to windward areas, but the clouds will be
too shallow to bring much rain to leeward areas.

A surface high will move southeast behind the front, bringing
breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
A ridge just north of Kauai will continue to dominate the weather
pattern today generating light east southeast flow. This will
allow for local sea breeze development by late this morning, then
transitioning to a land breeze after sundown. Isolated showers
are expected to favor mainly interior and mountain locations this
afternoon, then transition towards the windward slopes and
windward coasts by tonight. Brief MVFR conds may occur, due to
lowered visibility from -SHRA, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak northeast to southwest-oriented surface pressure ridge is
just north of Kauai. This is keeping island waters under light to
moderate east to southeast winds. A cold front is forecast to move
across the area on Friday and Saturday, bringing a brief period
of moderate to locally strong northeast winds.

A large west-northwest to northwest swell is arriving today. Buoy
51001 reached nearly 14 feet at 17 seconds which is higher than
the Wavewatch 3 guidance. As a result, a High Surf Warning was
issued earlier this morning for the north and west shores of Kauai
and Niihau. Islands east of Kauai will be a bit blocked with a
swell from this direction so slightly smaller swells are expected
for these areas. Thus, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the
north and/or west facing shores from Oahu to the Big Island. Swell
heights should trend downward on Thursday.

A smaller west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Thursday
night, peak on Friday, and gradually decline on Saturday. Advisory
level surf is expected from this episode. Late in the forecast
period, another west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive and
produce surf near the advisory level Sunday night and into Monday.

An elevated east swell is producing near advisory level surf for
east-facing shores through tonight. This swell will decrease on
Thursday.

Due to the large swell moving across the area and locally gusty
winds in some of the channels, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in
effect for winds and seas through Thursday. SCA conditions will
also be produced by the gusty winds associated with Friday's cold
front combined with a new west-northwest swell.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM Thursday for north and west facing
shores of Niihau and Kauai.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM Thursday for north and west facing
shores of Oahu and Molokai, north facing shores of Maui and west
facing shores of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Thursday for waters around Kauai,
and Oahu Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters and the Big
Island Windward waters.

&&

$$
DISCUSSION...Donaldson
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Kodama

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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