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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

428
FXHW60 PHFO 230145
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 PM HST Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to generate breezy trade
winds through the early part of next week. The remnants of a
dissipating front may provide a boost in trade showers Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry and stable trade wind weather prevails across the state
this afternoon. Rainfall has been scant to nil at all reporting
stations this afternoon. Off to the north of the islands, a weak
frontal boundary is stalled as it slowly dissipates. Expecting
this stable trade wind pattern to continue through the weekend
with mid level ridging directly over the state, a surface high to
the north and a band of moisture parallel to the trades remaining
stuck north of the islands.

By late Sunday into Monday, whatever remains of the moisture to
the north may nudge into the islands as the flow turns a bit more
northeasterly. The 700 mb ridge over the state over the weekend
gives little ground, meaning whatever moisture pushes south will
be fighting a dry and subsident airmass above it. Thus any passing showers
should be of limited intensity. Still the trend will be for more
spots getting at least some rainfall compared to the current
pattern.

The weather pattern over the islands is expected to change
mid to late next week as a passing mid latitude trough to the
north drags a weakening cold front across the state. A short
period of light and variable winds sets up ahead of the front late
Wednesday, followed by a period of westerly winds early Thursday.
Have adjusted the wind forecasts towards a blend of the latest
ECMWF and GFS which show a cold front making its way through the
islands during the day Thursday. Have also boosted shower chances
during that period. The winds behind the front will be breezy from
the north but shift quickly towards the northeast by Thursday
night as the front dissipates.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure north of the state will keep moderate trade winds in
place through tonight, then strengthening slightly this weekend.
VFR conditions are expected tonight. A few clouds and showers
will move in with the trades resulting in isolated mountain
obscurations.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the area will continue to bring trade winds
to the region into early next week. The current northwest swell
is running a foot or so above guidance, producing marginal high
surf along exposed north and west facing shores. The swell is
expected to remain elevated tonight and tomorrow morning, before
slowly decreasing tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. As a result,
a High Surf Advisory has been issued through Saturday afternoon
for exposed shorelines.

The increase in the swell is also producing seas 10 feet or
greater over exposed waters. Have expanded the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) to cover the areas exposed to these seas. The seas
should be below SCA levels by Saturday night.

Several reinforcing northwest and north swells should continue to
produce small to moderate surf for the first half of next week.
By the middle of next week, a moderate long-period northwest swell
will be possible. As trade winds strengthen this weekend, rough
surf along east facing shores will gradually increase, with the
highest expected late Saturday into Monday. No significant
southerly swells are expected.

See the latest Oahu Surf Discussion (SRDHFO) for additional
details on surf and swell.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for north and west
facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, and the
north facing shores of Maui.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Brenchley
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...M Ballard

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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