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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 101922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
922 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend with moderate
trades expected next week. Showers will focus over windward and
mountain areas with a few reaching leeward locations. Day to day
shower trends will vary as pockets of moisture move through the


High pressure located far north of the area will maintain breezy
trade winds into next week. Current satellite imagery depicts a
large field of stable stratocumulus (SC) clouds riding the low
level trade wind flow. The SC will bring cloudy skies to windward
areas with showers expected mainly over the mountains today and
tonight as the orography squeezes the moisture out of the SC.

Our large scale weather pattern looks to remain unchanged over the
next several days with a high pressure ridge north of the islands,
and fronts passing from west to east through the Gulf of Alaska.
Trades are expected to remain breezy through the weekend with a
slight weakening next week as the high shifts eastward. Showers
and clouds will focus over the mountain slopes and windward areas
with only brief passing showers expected over leeward locations.
Day to day shower trends will vary as pockets of moisture move
through with the trade winds.


Satellite shows more clouds immediate upstream of the Big Island
and Maui County this morning, which will likely bring some showers
to the windward slopes. These clouds and showers will reach Kauai
and Oahu in a few hours. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail, with
some passing MVFR conditions possible mainly over windward areas
in the clouds and showers.

Breezy conditions are expected to continue for the next several
days. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical low level
turbulence to the lee of all mountains, and will likely be in
place for a while.

Not expecting a need for any additional AIRMETs at this time.


A breezy trade wind pattern will hold into early next week. A
Small Craft Advisory remains posted for the typically windier
waters around the Big Island and Maui County, as well as for
windward Maui waters and the Kaiwi Channel.

No significant swells are due through much of next week. The
current small south-southwest swell will taper off today. A mix of
background south and southeast swells will continue to produce
small surf along south facing shores through next week. Trade
wind swells will gradually build through today, then hold into
early next week, producing choppy surf along east facing shores.
Additionally, TC Cristina in the far East Pacific could produce a
small moderate- period east swell next week. Surf along north
facing shores will remain nearly flat through next week.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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