NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
016
FXHW60 PHFO 060707
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
907 PM HST Sun May 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through Monday morning,
decreasing to moderate levels from Monday afternoon onward. A
passing weak upper level disturbance will drift over the islands
through Monday enhancing passing showers. An unstable band of
clouds and showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds,
bringing another round of wet weather for all islands from
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Local island radar imagery show enhanced showers riding into the
windward and mountain slopes of all islands this evening.
Satellite water vapor channel imagery continues to show a
weakening upper level low slowly drifting from west to east across
the island chain. This upper low will produce enough instability
to keep wet trade winds in the forecast through Monday as it
tracks eastward across the state.
A 1030 mb high pressure system remains far north of the island
chain and will continue to produce breezy easterly trade winds
across the state into Monday. By Monday afternoon trade wind
speeds transition to more moderate levels as the high pressure
system drifts eastward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Expect
light to moderate easterly trade winds to continue through the
rest of the week.
Wetter than normal conditions remain in the forecast for all
islands through much of this week. Enhanced showers will continue
into Monday as a weakening upper level disturbance drifts from
west to east across the island chain. Tuesday will trend a bit
drier. An unstable band of clouds and showers, remnants of an old
East Pacific cold front, will drift into the islands on the trade
winds producing wet weather for all islands from Wednesday into
Thursday. An upper level trough sweeping in from north on Thursday
and Friday will likely keep enhanced showers in the forecast
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy easterly trade winds will persist into Monday, with clouds
and showers favoring windward areas. An upper low will move east
across the islands tonight into Monday, along with an incoming
band of showers, will result in increasing rainfall tonight for
most windward areas. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations will
be possible later tonight for these areas. The easterly trades
will begin to ease into the light to moderate range late Monday.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet
downwind of island terrain due to the winds. Additionally, moderate
turbulence aloft (FL280-FL380) is expected through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1030 mb high centered over 800 nm north of the state is
maintaining fresh to near gale force trade winds, and a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through
tonight. Trades will gradually ease late tonight through Tuesday
as the high moves eastward. As a result, the SCA is scheduled to
be scaled back to the typically windy waters around the Big Island
and Maui County by Monday morning and may be dropped entirely
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Expect gentle to locally fresh trade
winds to prevail Wednesday through Friday as a trough develops
then lingers north of the islands. In addition, a few heavy
showers will be possible tonight and Monday.
Pulses of south to southwest swell are due this week, with High
Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions expected by Thursday. In the short
term, the bulk of a south swell will be passing east of Hawaii.
The PacIOOS buoy off of Lanai is currently showing about a 2 feet
16 to 18 second swell this evening. This swell will continue to
fill in tonight, south shore surf may peak around May average
through early Monday, then decline late Monday through Wednesday.
Forerunners from a larger and longer lived south- southwest swell
will arrive Wednesday, and surf is expected rise to the HSA level
during the peak of the swell Thursday and Friday.
A pair of small northwest swells will move through over the next
several days. As the current swell of around 2 feet at 12 to 13
seconds declines overnight, a reinforcing small swell of around 3
ft will fill in through Monday, peak Tuesday, then decline late
Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind-driven waves of 8 to 9 feet at 9
seconds will maintain rough east shore surf above the May average
into Monday. As trade winds decline over the next few days, these
seas will gradually decline to around May average by Tuesday,
then drop to below average for the rest of the week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island
Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
016
FXHW60 PHFO 060707
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
907 PM HST Sun May 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through Monday morning,
decreasing to moderate levels from Monday afternoon onward. A
passing weak upper level disturbance will drift over the islands
through Monday enhancing passing showers. An unstable band of
clouds and showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds,
bringing another round of wet weather for all islands from
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Local island radar imagery show enhanced showers riding into the
windward and mountain slopes of all islands this evening.
Satellite water vapor channel imagery continues to show a
weakening upper level low slowly drifting from west to east across
the island chain. This upper low will produce enough instability
to keep wet trade winds in the forecast through Monday as it
tracks eastward across the state.
A 1030 mb high pressure system remains far north of the island
chain and will continue to produce breezy easterly trade winds
across the state into Monday. By Monday afternoon trade wind
speeds transition to more moderate levels as the high pressure
system drifts eastward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Expect
light to moderate easterly trade winds to continue through the
rest of the week.
Wetter than normal conditions remain in the forecast for all
islands through much of this week. Enhanced showers will continue
into Monday as a weakening upper level disturbance drifts from
west to east across the island chain. Tuesday will trend a bit
drier. An unstable band of clouds and showers, remnants of an old
East Pacific cold front, will drift into the islands on the trade
winds producing wet weather for all islands from Wednesday into
Thursday. An upper level trough sweeping in from north on Thursday
and Friday will likely keep enhanced showers in the forecast
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy easterly trade winds will persist into Monday, with clouds
and showers favoring windward areas. An upper low will move east
across the islands tonight into Monday, along with an incoming
band of showers, will result in increasing rainfall tonight for
most windward areas. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations will
be possible later tonight for these areas. The easterly trades
will begin to ease into the light to moderate range late Monday.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet
downwind of island terrain due to the winds. Additionally, moderate
turbulence aloft (FL280-FL380) is expected through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1030 mb high centered over 800 nm north of the state is
maintaining fresh to near gale force trade winds, and a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through
tonight. Trades will gradually ease late tonight through Tuesday
as the high moves eastward. As a result, the SCA is scheduled to
be scaled back to the typically windy waters around the Big Island
and Maui County by Monday morning and may be dropped entirely
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Expect gentle to locally fresh trade
winds to prevail Wednesday through Friday as a trough develops
then lingers north of the islands. In addition, a few heavy
showers will be possible tonight and Monday.
Pulses of south to southwest swell are due this week, with High
Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions expected by Thursday. In the short
term, the bulk of a south swell will be passing east of Hawaii.
The PacIOOS buoy off of Lanai is currently showing about a 2 feet
16 to 18 second swell this evening. This swell will continue to
fill in tonight, south shore surf may peak around May average
through early Monday, then decline late Monday through Wednesday.
Forerunners from a larger and longer lived south- southwest swell
will arrive Wednesday, and surf is expected rise to the HSA level
during the peak of the swell Thursday and Friday.
A pair of small northwest swells will move through over the next
several days. As the current swell of around 2 feet at 12 to 13
seconds declines overnight, a reinforcing small swell of around 3
ft will fill in through Monday, peak Tuesday, then decline late
Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind-driven waves of 8 to 9 feet at 9
seconds will maintain rough east shore surf above the May average
into Monday. As trade winds decline over the next few days, these
seas will gradually decline to around May average by Tuesday,
then drop to below average for the rest of the week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island
Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office