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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 231952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
952 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2019

Moderate to breezy trades will continue through the weekend,
periodically delivering clouds and showers to windward areas while
most leeward areas remain mostly dry. Trade wind speeds may diminish
by the middle of next week.


As a weak surface trough N of the islands weakens and drifts NW over
the next couple of days, surface high pressure will strengthen far N
of the area, and trade wind speeds will increase slightly. The
locally breezy trade winds will continue through early next week,
but are then expected to weaken by mid-week as the high weakens and
a low passes far N of the area. With no major sources of moisture or
instability expected through the weekend, trade winds will
periodically deliver clouds and showers that will primarily dampen
windward areas, while most leeward areas remain dry. More
significant moisture areas may become embedded in the trade flow in
about a week, but confidence in that is close to zero.

Latest satellite images show an area of broken to overcast stable
and showery low clouds immediately upstream of the islands, but
skies over most island areas are mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with
radar detecting only isolated showers. Model guidance indicates that
this moisture patch will move over Kauai and Oahu later today into
tonight, fueling a few windward showers before moving W of the area
by morning. Another slug of moisture passing S of the Big Island may
fuel some windward showers Saturday night, but nothing significant
in the way of accumulation or coverage is expected.


High pressure remains north of Hawaii with nothing to disrupt the
easterly trade winds which will continue most likely through the
weekend. VFR conditions will dominate most areas across the state
with maybe a few passing, infrequent MVFR conditions on the windward
side of the mountains with clouds and maybe a shower and lower

It will be breezy again this afternoon so there is a chance for some
pockets of low level turbulence south and west of the mountains.
Other than that, no AIRMETs are expected through this forecast


High pressure to the north will maintain moderate to locally strong
trades through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted
through Sunday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the
Big Island. Another front is forecast to pass north of the state
next week with east trade winds weakening.

The current south swell will continue to subside today with mainly
background energy expected over the weekend into early next week. A
larger southwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and will likely
peak Wednesday or Thursday near advisory levels.

Small northwest swells will linger over the next few days providing
some out of season surf along north facing shores. Breezy trades
will continue to produce small choppy surf along east facing shores
over the next few days.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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