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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

946
FXHW60 PHFO 081957
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
957 AM HST Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The breezy trade wind pattern will continue through early next week.
Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas each day,
especially through the overnight and early morning periods as
pockets of moisture move through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest radar and satellite imagery is showing light to moderate
trade wind showers across the state this morning. Windward areas
should continue to see scattered showers throughout the day today
with some isolated showers making its way over leeward areas of
the smaller islands time to time. Typical afternoon showers will
once again develop over the Kona area this afternoon.

The breezy trade winds are expected to continue through early next
week due to the nearly stationary high well north of the state.
Some minor fluctuations are expected with slightly stronger trades
possible Friday and Saturday and slightly weaker trades on
Monday. But overall, breezy trade winds will persist into next
week.

Starting tonight, a weak mid-level trough will bring another
surge of moisture across the state through Thursday night. Off and
on moderate showers will be likely for windward and mauka areas
during this time with some leeward showers expected due to the
breezy trades. For Friday and Saturday, we should return to our
typical summer time trade wind weather, where leeward areas will
remain mostly dry with scattered light to moderate showers over
windward and mauka areas. Showers will be most common during the
overnight and early morning hours.


&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure well north of Hawaii will continue to provide the
islands with northeasterly tradewinds. It looks as if the
pressure gradient will be somewhat tighter today which will
translate to stronger winds and gusts. The stronger winds may
create some low level turbulence. Will issue AIRMET for low level
turbulence if warranted.

The best chance for rain and low level clouds continues to be
over windward mauka areas. Though mostly brief and passing in
nature, if these conditions become more consistent, there may be a
need for an AIRMET for mountain obscuration, especially for
northeast sections on the Big Island and Maui.

No AIRMETs in effect at this time. Isolated MVFR CIG and VIS are
to be expected in showers, otherwise VFR conditions for the rest
of the state.


&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through the weekend and
into early next week, as strong high pressure holds in place far
north and northeast of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
is in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the
Big Island through Sunday. This SCA will likely need to be extended
into early next week.

No significant swells are due through much of the week. A mix of
mainly background southerly swells will dominate, with a south-
southwest swell potentially boosting south shore surf to around
the summer average Thursday and Friday. Trade wind swell will
gradually build to around the summer average by Thursday or Friday
as well, then hold into early next week. Surf along north facing
shores will remain small.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Chevalier
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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