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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

731
FXHW60 PHFO 170232 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
432 PM HST Sun Feb 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure north of the state will bring breezy
trade wind weather through the week. Clouds and passing showers
will favor windward and mountain areas, with most leeward
locations remaining mostly dry. Stronger trade winds and an
increase in showers are possible towards the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place north of the Hawaiian
Islands through the week keeping breezy trade winds in the forecast.
For the most part, windward and mountain areas will see isolated
to scattered shower activity over the next few days. Meanwhile on
the leeward areas, a few showers will be possible mainly during
the early morning or overnight hours.

Weather conditions will begin to change Tuesday through Thursday
as a strong high moves into the region north of the islands. Trade
wind speeds will increase and could reach wind advisory
thresholds by Wednesday morning. Latest guidance is indicating
near advisory levels winds Wednesday and Wednesday night for some
of the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island.
Additionally a few weak upper level troughs passing over the
islands during the second half of the week will bring an increase
in shower activity across the state. More showers will favor
windward and mountain areas especially during the overnight and
early morning hours and passing showers are expected over leeward
sections of each island from late Tuesday through Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...
A stable and breezy trade wind flow will persist through the next
several days. AIRMET Tango is posted, and will remain in effect,
for tempo moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of
terrain. VFR conditions will dominate over leeward areas, while
windward areas experience brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
reduced visibility in passing showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trades will remain through Tuesday with a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north. A strong high pressure
will increase winds further by midweek, potentially nearing gale-
force levels across the windier areas by Wednesday (Pailolo/Alenuihaha
Channels/Maalaea Bay/Waters near South Point). Seas will hold
near 10 ft across waters exposed to the trades and northwest
swells. Expect the roughest conditions late Tuesday through
Thursday as strong trades become more widespread.

Surf along north and west facing shores will trend down through
midweek as a north-northwest swell eases. A new northwest swell
is expected Wednesday night, peaking Thursday with surf heights
forecast to remain just under advisory levels.

Surf along exposed east facing shores will remain rough through the
week due to the strong trades upstream of the islands. Heights
may reach the advisory level of 8 ft by Wednesday as local and
upstream winds increase. Surf along south facing shores will
remain above the seasonal average into Tuesday as an out of
season south swell moves through.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Morrison

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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