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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

832
FXHW60 PHFO 271949
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
949 AM HST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather will continue through Friday, and a dominant
land and sea breeze regime will produce interior clouds and a
slight chance of showers each afternoon, though windward Big
Island and Maui could see a light shower at any time. Expect an
uptick in trade winds Saturday with limited windward rainfall. A
weak front may brush the state early next week and decrease winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions and decreasing winds are in store today. A cold
front 500 miles northwest of Kauai is pushing a surface ridge
southward toward the state. Trade winds have eased and are
veering southeasterly, especially near Oahu and Kauai, and as a
result, land breezes dominate over most areas this morning. A
ridge aloft is building over the state, resulting in an inversion
based between 4,000 and 5,000 ft, and precipitable water over and
just upwind of the islands is running less than an inch. Under
these stable and rather dry conditions, scant rainfall occurred
since yesterday. Expect sea breezes to produce some interior
clouds this afternoon with little to no rainfall.

Little change is due tonight and Friday. The surface ridge will
stall less than 100 miles north of Kauai, leaving weak
southeasterly winds from Kauai to Maui and more easterly winds
around the Big Island. Overnight land breezes will clear out low
clouds over most areas, and with the atmosphere remaining rather
dry and stable, afternoon sea breezes will produce only a few
interior showers.

A short-lived increase in trade winds will occur Friday night and
Saturday. The above mentioned front will dissipate before
reaching the islands, and a following surface high will quickly
pass north of the state, leading to a brief period of gentle to
moderate trade winds. The air mass will remain stable and somewhat
dry, suggesting minimal windward rainfall.

Winds will ease and shift southeasterly again Sunday and Monday as
another front approaches the state. Expect a return to a land and
sea breeze pattern, and with mid level ridging in place, showers
should be modest and should favor interior areas each afternoon.

Uncertainty increases heading into Monday night and Tuesday. The
operational GFS is showing the strong zonal west Pacific jet
stream driving a shortwave upper trough and the front down the
island chain. Meanwhile, the GFS ensembles and ECMWF are showing
the bulk of the shortwave energy passing north of the state. The
current forecast leans heavily toward the ECMWF solution, which
stalls the front near Kauai.

&&

.AVIATION...
A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will produce
relatively dry and stable conditions with light to moderate east
to southeast winds across the state. Winds will be light enough
for localized sea breezes during the day today and we could see
some afternoon clouds over interior and leeward areas. During the
evening and overnight, we should see land breezes develop in many
areas with clouds gradually clearing. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period.

AIRMET Tango continues for higher level turbulence above FL300,
supported both by Ellrod guidance and recent PIREPS. These upper
level turb conditions are expected to improve after 21z today.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds have dropped below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
across the region this morning as a front to our northwest has
pushed the subtropical ridge southward near Kauai. Winds have
veered to southeasterlies across the western half of the state
while light to moderate trade winds persist farther to the east.
Stronger trade winds will return this weekend.

A northwest swell will slowly decrease today and tonight,
remaining below advisory thresholds through Friday afternoon. The
next in a series of northwest swells will arrive by Friday night,
pushing surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores
into the low end High Surf Advisory (HSA) range. Another larger
northwest swell arrives on Tuesday morning with solid HSA
conditions expected from Tuesday into Wednesday. South shore
surf will remain very small today and tomorrow, with a small
boost possible from Friday into the weekend. Very small surf will
continue along east facing shores into early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Kinel/Kino
MARINE...Powell

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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