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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

829
FXHW60 PHFO 191930
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
930 AM HST Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue through the forecast period, thanks to
persistent high pressure to our north. Clouds and showers will
favor windward and mauka areas. Patchy high clouds will move over
the islands through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 mb high far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands is
driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds across local
waters this morning. Satellite imagery shows patchy broken low
clouds moving across windward areas and thin high clouds
moving southwest to northeast across the entire state. Radar
shows isolated to scattered showers associated with the low clouds
moving into windward areas. Isolated showers are also noted
across a few leeward areas as well.

Models show trade winds will prevail for the next week, with only
minor speed fluctuations expected. Moderate to locally breezy
trades will persist today and tonight, then decrease Sunday
through Monday as a weakening cold front approaches from the
northwest. Trades are expected to increase again Monday night
through Wednesday as high pressure northeast of the state
strengthens, then trend down late next week as a new cold front
approaches from the northwest. Expect trade wind weather to
continue for the next 7 days, with showers favoring windward and
mauka areas along with the occasional leeward spillover. Showers
will be most common at night and during the morning hours.

High clouds associated with a jet stream will continue to move
overhead through the weekend and into early next week, resulting
in partly to mostly cloudy conditions. The high clouds should thin
out Tuesday through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate easterly-northeasterly trade winds should continue
through the forecast period. Toward the end of Sunday, the trades
may shift a little to an easterly-southeasterly direction. We
have not had any reports of any low-level turbulence so there will
probably not be a need for an AIRMET Tango for low-level
turbulence as the winds are not expected to increase much, if at
all. The windward sides of the islands will see passing MVFR
conditions. especially during the overnight hours. Will issue
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration if necessary but so far
with this persistent weather pattern, the mountain obscuration has
not been consistent enough to warrant an AIRMET. VFR conditions
are expected across the rest of the state.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure northeast of the state will maintain locally strong
easterly trade winds at least through tonight. A front approaching
the state from the north late tonight will cause winds to shift
to the east-southeast. While the front is expected to stay north
of the islands, it will weaken the winds, especially over the
western half of the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through tonight for the typically windier areas near Maui
County and the Big Island. This advisory may need to be extended
into Sunday if winds are slower to drop off.

Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels through the
forecast period. The current combo north and northwest swell will
continue to gradually decline through the weekend. A small
reinforcement from the north-northwest is possible today. A gale
low is expected to develop near the Kurils tonight into Sunday,
and then track to the east toward the Date Line Sunday into
Monday. This would generate a northwest swell that could reach the
islands late next week.

Last week, a storm force low far southeast of New Zealand tracked
east with a captured fetch aimed east of the state. Buoy 51004
southeast of the state is showing an increase in energy this
morning. Near-shore buoys are also registering an increase in
long-period energy. We should see a gradual rise in surf along
south facing shores today as the small south swell fills in. Surf
should be around the summer average over the weekend, before
slowly dropping off early next week.

The large fetch of fresh to strong trade winds near and east of
the state will maintain rough surf along east facing shores
through most of the weekend and into early next week. A slight
decrease is possible Sunday as winds briefly decrease, but choppy
rough surf will quickly return as trades restrengthen early next
week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Chevalier
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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