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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

161
FXHW60 PHFO 251951
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
951 AM HST Mon May 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Lighter winds and mostly dry weather are expected through Tuesday,
with a few showers possible, mainly during the afternoon and
evenings. Trade winds are expected to strengthen Wednesday, and
remain in place into next weekend, delivering a few brief showers to
windward areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning's radar and satellite imagery is showing some
scattered showers moving into windward Big Island and mostly clear
conditions over the smaller islands. For this afternoon, we are
expecting pockets of light showers to continue to impact the
windward Big Island and clouds and showers increasing over leeward
Big Island. Over the smaller islands, sea breezes are expected to
develop for select leeward areas and could result in a few showers
over leeward and mauka areas.

For tonight and Tuesday, an upper level low southwest of Oahu
will likely bring an increase in high clouds to the area. Latest
guidance is showing some showers overnight, with afternoon sea
breezes likely developing once again over leeward areas of the
smaller islands Tuesday afternoon. Due to a stable atmosphere
aloft, any showers should be light to moderate in intensity.

Typical trade wind weather will return on Wednesday as a high
builds north of the state. Winds will increase to moderate speeds
and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, mainly during
the overnight and early morning hours. Stable trade wind weather
is expected to hold through next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
Another day of weak east southeasterly flow will lead to sea
breeze development this afternoon, especially along leeward
areas. Scattered showers are forecast to form over the higher
terrain, then move over other portions of the islands as the
afternoon progresses. Brief MVFR conditions may occur from this
activity, but not expecting anything widespread.

No AIRMETs are in effect at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge stalling about 200 nm north of Kauai will
maintain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds around the Big
Island and Maui and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds from
Molokai to Kauai into Tuesday. A front passing north of the ridge
will dissipate later Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing stronger
high pressure to build far north of the state. As a result,
trades will surge back over the islands late Tuesday and
strengthen on Wednesday. Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory
strength across the typically windy waters around the Big Island
and Maui Wednesday into next weekend.

South facing shores will see periods of surf around the May
average through much of the week. A longer period south-southwest
swell will combine with a small south-southeast swell to produce
moderate sized surf near or just below the May average this
morning, followed by a slight drop through Wednesday. Another
pulse of south-southwest swell energy is expected from late
Thursday through Saturday.

A series of small, mostly northwest swells will produce surf near
the May average along north facing shores through much of the
week. The swells will shift out of the north Friday through next
weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will be below May average through
the week as the trade winds over and upstream of the state remain
weaker than normal.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Wroe

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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