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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

617
FXHW60 PHFO 032001
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1001 AM HST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will continue for the next few days as
high pressures lies far to our north. Winds will strengthen over
the weekend and on into early next week as the high to our north
strengthens. An upper trough will linger over the area throughout
the forecast period. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward
and mauka areas with the trade winds sufficiently strong enough
to blow some passing showers over to leeward areas at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure is centered far to the north northeast of
the state resulting in breezy to locally wind trade winds across
the area. Moisture embedded in the trades is currently producing
some showers of Kauai and portions of the Big Island while the
Oahu and Maui County are mainly dry. Meanwhile, a weak upper
trough lies over the area. This is allowing for some of the
showers to be briefly moderate in intensity. There will likely be
a slight uptick in shower activity across the central islands
later today as an area of moisture seen on satellite imagery
interacts with island terrain.

The high is forecast to drift east southeast and weaken slightly
over the next few days. Also a weak low level trough will set up
in the island vicinity. This will allow for a slight downward
trend in trade wind speeds. Meanwhile, the weak upper trough will
linger over the area. This will keep the airmass a bit less stable
which will allow for a continuation of passing showers especially
for windward and mauka areas. Also, guidance there will be in
increase in high level clouds over the area which may dim the sun
from time to time.

By Friday night and on into Saturday, the remnants of an old front
will move into the area from the northeast. This will result in an
overall uptick in shower activity over the weekend and on into
early next week. The surface high will then strengthen north of
the state with trade winds speeds increasing once again to breezy
and windy levels. The upper trough will continue to linger over
the area on into early next week keeping the airmass on the
unstable side.

&&

.AVIATION...
A surface high to the northwest of the state will continue to
support breezy to locally strong easterly trade winds today, but
speeds will slowly lower through Thursday. AIRMET Tango remains
in effect for moderate low-level turbulence near and downwind of
mountains. AIRMET Tango will also remain in effect, likely through
today, for moderate mid-level turbulence between FL220 and FL300,
due to a strong jet stream over the state.

Otherwise, showers will continue to ride in on the trade wind
flow and impact mainly windward coasts and slopes, though most
showers should remain light with only brief periods of MVFR
ceilings/visibility.

&&

.MARINE...
A high far northwest of the area will slowly weaken and move
southeast before stalling north of the area tomorrow afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all waters through
this afternoon due to a combination of strong trade winds and
elevated seas. The SCA may be extended or scaled back tonight as
winds and seas slowly ease with the weakening high. The high will
maintain SCA level trade winds and seas over northwest waters
through tomorrow. SCA conditions may return for most waters Friday
due to building seas, and extend over the weekend as the high is
reinforced and strong trades become more widespread.

Trade winds swell will maintain east shoreline surf at or above
the 8 foot High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold through this
afternoon. As trade winds over and upstream of the islands weaken,
surf along east facing shores will slowly decline and become
small by tomorrow. A bump in east shoreline surf will occur late
Friday night into the weekend as trade wind swell increases and an
arriving north swell wrap fills in.

A northwest swell will begin arriving this late this afternoon
and evening, peaking at or just below HSA along north and west-
facing shores late Thursday into Friday. The secondary,
reinforcing north swell will arrive Friday night and, in addition
to the returning trade wind swell wrap, may boost north facing
shore surf heights to, or slightly above, HSA heights Friday into
Saturday and slowly diminish Sunday.

Surf along south-facing shores has declined since yesterday due to
the declining easterly trade wind swell. A small, long- period
southwest swell will fill in tomorrow, providing a small bump in
south shore surf, and slowly decline through the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Windward-Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-
Windward Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all
Hawaiian waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burke
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Almanza

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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