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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

194
FXHW60 PHFO 221404 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
404 AM HST Wed May 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled cold front northwest of Kauai will keep the Hawaiian
Islands along the edge of a high pressure ridge through Friday.
Expect light and variable winds with land and sea breeze weather
over each island. Clouds and isolated to scattered showers will
favor mountain and interior sections. Skies will clear up overnight
as the stable land breezes begin to develop a few hours after
sunset. Moderate trade winds are forecast to return Memorial Day
weekend and last through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A few clouds lingered overnight along windward mountain ranges
with leeward areas mostly clear. Higher cloud coverage was
observed over the Puna and Kona districts on the Big Island. A
cold frontal boundary remains stalled northwest of Kauai. Hot and
humid weather conditions will continue today in a light and
variable wind pattern. High temperatures will approach record
levels for some locations.

The large scale weather pattern remains unchanged with a stalled
front northwest of Kauai, and the edge of a weakened high
pressure ridge lingering over the islands. Light and variable
winds will continue through the week with afternoon sea breezes
developing over all islands interacting with a light background
east to southeasterly flow. Cloud ceilings and isolated to
scattered showers will favor mountains, interior sections, and
sea breeze convergence boundaries from the afternoon into the
early evening hours. Skies will clear out each night and
temperatures will cool off as the stable land breezes develop
after sunset. Global weather models are in good agreement through
Friday.

Moderate strength trade winds are forecast to return on Saturday.
Clouds and isolated to scattered showers will tend to favor
windward and mauka areas in the overnight and early morning hours.
Drier weather conditions will favor leeward slopes of all
islands. This trade wind weather pattern will likely last through
at least next week Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak front approaching Kauai will stall this morning, then
begin to retrograde back westward later today as high pressure
ridging builds to the northeast of Hawaii. This flow pattern will
allow for a light southeasterly background flow to persist across
our region. Diurnally driven sea breezes will dominate leeward coastal
areas late this morning into the afternoon. Expect ISOL -SHRA to
be concentrated mainly over interior and mauka regions this
afternoon with mostly clear and VFR conditions elsewhere.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge will persist northwest of the coastal waters while
a front lingers northwest of the offshore waters. Fresh easterly
trade winds will persist south of the Big Island of Hawaii and
through the Alenuihaha Channel, with fresh southeast winds over
Big Island and Maui County windward waters. The southeast flow
will be partly blocked by the Big Island and Maui, so winds around
islands from Lanai to Kauai will be gentle and variable. Winds
around the Big Island and Maui will strengthen and reach Small
Craft Advisory speeds today as a high strengthens northeast of the
area. The front and ridge northwest of the area will slowly shift
northwest through the week. Winds will back out of the east over
the smaller islands by Friday. Then easterly trade winds will
persist through next week.

Small to moderate surf will continue along south facing shores
through Friday. A fairly large swell from southeast of New Zealand
is forecast to reach the coastal waters Saturday. This swell may
produce surf near the advisory level along south facing shores
through Memorial Day. A smaller reinforcing south swell is
possible Tuesday. Surf along north facing shores will be quite
small through Thursday. A moderate northwest swell arriving Friday
will peak Saturday then slowly subside through Memorial Day. A
small north swell is possible for Tuesday. Surf along east facing
shores will remain small through the middle of the week. As winds
strengthen northeast of the area during the second half of the
week, surf will build along east facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...Donaldson

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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