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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

098
FXHW60 PHFO 241339
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
339 AM HST Wed Feb 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north and northeast of the islands will keep breezy
to windy trades in place through the weekend. Drier trade wind
weather is expected through today. Upper troughing, along with an
influx of moisture from the east, will likely increase shower
coverage and intensity Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A high far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands is driving
fresh to strong trade winds across local waters this morning,
while a trough sits about 600 miles west of Kauai. Satellite loop
shows broken to overcast low clouds across most windward areas of
the Big Island, but only scattered to patchy broken low clouds
across windward areas of the smaller islands. Overcast layered
clouds along the eastern flank of an upper trough to the west of
the island chain are beginning to drift eastward across Kauai.
Radar shows light to moderate showers across windward portions of
Maui and the Big Island.

The high northeast of the state will strengthen tonight, boosting
wind speeds through Friday night. Troughing northwest of the
state will then cause winds to decrease again this weekend.
Daytime wind speeds will likely be at or just below advisory
levels in exposed areas over the next few days.

A broad upper trough will develop across the islands and persist
into this weekend. This will raise the inversion and enhance trade
wind showers. An elevated inversion will limit strong downsloping
wind gusts. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka
areas. We will consider the possibility of thunderstorms across
leeward portions of the Big Island as time gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Current observations indicate prevailing VFR at nearly all
locations early this morning, although occasional reduction to
MVFR has been noted over windward areas of every major island.
AIRMET Sierra will remain in effect through the near term as
clouds and showers stream onshore over Windward Big Island & the
view of Kauai and Oahu becomes increasingly impeded by high
cloud. At this time, it appears likely that least a portion of
AIRMET Sierra will be cancelled during the predawn hours. The
primary aviation hazard during the remainder of the forecast
period will be breezy to locally strong trades which will undergo
additional slight strengthening today. This will include a
localized wind shear threat at susceptible locations.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for lee turbulence for the entire
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure north and northeast of the islands will keep
strong to near gale force easterly trade winds blowing through
early next week.

A combination of strong trade winds and elevated seas will produce
Small Craft Advisory conditions across all coastal waters into
the first half of next week. A Gale Watch remains in effect for
the Alenuihaha Channel starting on Thursday morning as trade wind
speeds are forecast to strengthen.

Strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands will keep
advisory level surf in place along east facing shores through the
first half of next week. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) was extended
for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big
Island through 6 AM Monday morning.

A series of small overlapping northwest swells will move through
the area into next week, with surf remaining below advisory levels
along exposed north and west facing shores.

A small out of season south swell will give a boost to south shore
surf late Thursday through early Saturday. Otherwise, surf along
south facing shores will remain small through early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Windward-
Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward
Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters-

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
Alenuihaha Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Bohlin/Jelsema

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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