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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

531
FXHW60 PHFO 111959
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
959 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will remain breezy through the weekend and will
gradually decrease early next week as the high to our north begins
to drift further east. An upper level low within our vicinity
during the first half of the upcoming week will likely bring an
increase of clouds and trade wind showers. Showers riding in with
the trades will favor the windward and mountain areas with a few
drifting into the lee side of the smaller islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest radar and satellite imagery are showing some light showers
riding in with the strong trade winds this morning. One feature
seen on satellite this morning are the wave clouds on the lee side
of the Koolau range this morning. This usually indicates a stable
atmosphere aloft and strong trade winds. Soundings from Lihue and
Hilo show a strong trade wind inversion at 6000 feet, with winds
of 20 to 25 knots just below the inversion. So for rest of the day
today and tonight, we should see our typical summer time trade
wind weather with strong trades and some passing showers. Showers
will primarily be focused over the windward and mauka side during
the overnight and early morning hours.

Starting Sunday, an upper level low will begin to approach the
state from north and will likely linger north and northwest of the
state through at least the first half of the upcoming week.
Meanwhile the high to our north will begin to drift further east,
and will cause the trade winds to gradually decrease to moderate
speeds by early next week. Although the details are uncertain,
with the upper level low lingering within our vicinity, we will
likely see an increase of clouds and trade wind showers during the
first half of the week. Periods of moderate rain will become
possible during this time. The forecast beyond Wednesday will
depend on the movement of the upper level low.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue
through the weekend due to high pressure far north of the state.
Passing clouds and showers will be focused over windward areas,
which could bring some brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the
lee of the islands. With locally breezy trades expected to
continue, this AIRMET will likely continue through the weekend.

Not expecting a need for any additional AIRMETs at this time.



&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far to our north is providing for breezy trade
winds across the area. A Small Craft Advisory is currently posted
for portions of the Hawaiian Coastal Waters mainly for the
channels east of Oahu. The high is forecast to drift eastward over
the next few days with a gradual decrease in trade wind speeds
expected by Tuesday. Seas will remain below the 10 foot advisory
threshold throughout the forecast period.

Surf heights are expected to remain on the small side through the
weekend and on through most of next week. There will be a series
of small southerly swells that will keep surf near of just above
background levels. A slightly larger long period south swell may
fill in around Friday. East facing shores will continue to
experience short period choppy surf produced by the trade winds. A
small but slightly longer period east swell produced from
tropical cyclone Cristina far in the eastern Pacific may provide a
slight uptick in surf heights during the Wednesday through Friday
time period. No other significant swells are expected.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Burke

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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