NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
768
FXHW60 PHFO 251315
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 AM HST Thu Apr 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue into Friday
morning. Expect enhanced trade wind showers through this morning
as a band of unsettled clouds rides through the islands on the
trade winds. These showers will decrease in coverage later this
afternoon as the band drifts west of the island chain. Trade wind
speeds will decrease slightly from Friday into the weekend as the
high pressure ridge to the north weakens and a low pressure
system deepens far northwest of the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this morning shows a lingering band of unsettled
showers drifting through the islands on the trade winds. Expect
enhanced showers to last through this morning with rainfall
amounts favoring windward and mountain slopes. These extra
showers should ease up by mid morning as more stable clouds will
fill into the Hawaii region from the east.
Wind speeds will continue at moderate to locally windy levels
into Friday morning. The high pressure system northeast of the
state will drift farther towards the east. A cut off surface low
will also deepen far northwest of Kauai. The forward motion on the
cut off low northwest of the islands stalls as it pushes up
against the ridge. The movement of these two surface pressure
systems will weaken the ridge north of the island chain and
decrease wind speeds from Friday afternoon into Saturday with
more moderate trade winds lasting into the first half of next
week.
Next week's weather starts with moderate east to southeast wind
flow and fairly dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Breezy
easterly winds with brief passing showers may return from Tuesday
night onward.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will prevail into Friday
morning. Clouds and SHRA with MVFR conds will continue to favor
windward and mauka areas, with isol SHRA reaching leeward areas.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for tempo mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low-level turb downwind of
the terrain for all islands, with little change expected through
the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1030 mb surface high northeast of the state, will slowly drift
eastward over the next several days. This feature will help drive
strong to locally near gale east northeasterly trade winds across
the islands through Thursday. By Friday, the high is forecast to
weaken, as low pressure develops well northwest of Hawaii. In
response, easterly winds will gradually weaken to light to
moderate and shift slightly out of the east southeast by the
weekend into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remain in
effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through Thursday. Beyond
Thursday, this hazard may need to be extended for some of the
typical windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island as trades
ease.
Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores
through the forecast period. Offshore buoys are showing signs of
the new medium period northwest swell filling in. Can expect surf
to rise locally by the early morning hours and through the
afternoon Thursday, peaking Thursday night. Another small, medium
period northwest pulse will enter the waters Friday night, peak
Saturday, and subside Sunday. Expect these swells to produce small
surf along north and northwest facing beaches. Persistent trades
will continue to produce choppy, rough surf through the rest of
the week along east facing beaches. By this weekend, weakening
trades will allow this surf to lower and hold into early next week.
Small background southerly swell will lead to small surf along
south facing beaches through the forecast period.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters-
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
768
FXHW60 PHFO 251315
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 AM HST Thu Apr 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue into Friday
morning. Expect enhanced trade wind showers through this morning
as a band of unsettled clouds rides through the islands on the
trade winds. These showers will decrease in coverage later this
afternoon as the band drifts west of the island chain. Trade wind
speeds will decrease slightly from Friday into the weekend as the
high pressure ridge to the north weakens and a low pressure
system deepens far northwest of the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this morning shows a lingering band of unsettled
showers drifting through the islands on the trade winds. Expect
enhanced showers to last through this morning with rainfall
amounts favoring windward and mountain slopes. These extra
showers should ease up by mid morning as more stable clouds will
fill into the Hawaii region from the east.
Wind speeds will continue at moderate to locally windy levels
into Friday morning. The high pressure system northeast of the
state will drift farther towards the east. A cut off surface low
will also deepen far northwest of Kauai. The forward motion on the
cut off low northwest of the islands stalls as it pushes up
against the ridge. The movement of these two surface pressure
systems will weaken the ridge north of the island chain and
decrease wind speeds from Friday afternoon into Saturday with
more moderate trade winds lasting into the first half of next
week.
Next week's weather starts with moderate east to southeast wind
flow and fairly dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Breezy
easterly winds with brief passing showers may return from Tuesday
night onward.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will prevail into Friday
morning. Clouds and SHRA with MVFR conds will continue to favor
windward and mauka areas, with isol SHRA reaching leeward areas.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for tempo mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low-level turb downwind of
the terrain for all islands, with little change expected through
the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
A 1030 mb surface high northeast of the state, will slowly drift
eastward over the next several days. This feature will help drive
strong to locally near gale east northeasterly trade winds across
the islands through Thursday. By Friday, the high is forecast to
weaken, as low pressure develops well northwest of Hawaii. In
response, easterly winds will gradually weaken to light to
moderate and shift slightly out of the east southeast by the
weekend into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remain in
effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through Thursday. Beyond
Thursday, this hazard may need to be extended for some of the
typical windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island as trades
ease.
Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores
through the forecast period. Offshore buoys are showing signs of
the new medium period northwest swell filling in. Can expect surf
to rise locally by the early morning hours and through the
afternoon Thursday, peaking Thursday night. Another small, medium
period northwest pulse will enter the waters Friday night, peak
Saturday, and subside Sunday. Expect these swells to produce small
surf along north and northwest facing beaches. Persistent trades
will continue to produce choppy, rough surf through the rest of
the week along east facing beaches. By this weekend, weakening
trades will allow this surf to lower and hold into early next week.
Small background southerly swell will lead to small surf along
south facing beaches through the forecast period.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters-
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office