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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

032
FXHW60 PHFO 061959
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
959 AM HST Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A high far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate
to breezy trades in place through early next week, with wind
speeds expected to peak over the weekend. Showers will favor
windward and mauka areas. An upper-level disturbance will fuel
increased shower coverage through Friday, with drier conditions
expected to move in over the weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 mb high far north of the main Hawaiian islands is driving
moderate to locally breezy trade winds across local waters this
morning. Satellite loop shows patchy broken low clouds across
windward areas, with scattered low clouds to clear skies noted
across leeward areas. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers
pushing onto windward slopes and coasts, with a few of these
showers spilling into leeward areas. Overnight soundings show a
seasonally moist and slightly unstable airmass, with weak
inversions around 8500 feet.

The high will remain nearly stationary to the north of the
islands for the next couple of days, keeping the current trade
wind pattern in place. With the high forecast to strengthen this
weekend, inversion heights will lower to around 6000 feet and wind
speeds should increase a bit statewide. A Wind Advisory may be
required for some of the typically windier land locations during
this time. The high will weaken and shift slowly westward well to
the north of the islands early next week, causing trade winds to
decrease a notch. However, the resulting moderate to locally
breezy conditions will continue through the middle of next week.

An increase in deep layer moisture associated with a weak upper-
level disturbance is expected to slowly shift from east to west
across the state through Friday. This moisture should fuel
increased showers across windward areas, with showers spreading to
leeward sections more regularly as well. Drier trade wind weather
will resume Friday night and continue through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trades persist with occasional showers bringing
periods of MVFR to windward areas, particularly the Big Island
through today. An increase in mid-level moisture noted east of
Kauai will impact the island this evening and overnight when more
widespread shower and MVFR coverage can be expected. Once expired,
AIRMET SIERRA will likely be reissued this evening, especially
for Kauai.

AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration
above 2kft.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for tempo mod turb below 8kft.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure far north of the area will remain nearly
stationary, sustaining a moderate to locally breezy trade wind
pattern over the islands into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier areas near Maui
County and the Big Island through Saturday afternoon. However, the
SCA may need to be extended, and expanded in area, over the
weekend as winds are likely to increase.

A small south swell filled in yesterday and will continue to hold
today before dropping down to background levels on Friday. Small
2 to 3 foot short-period southeast swell will also continue over
the next several days, but the Big Island will block some of this
swell from reaching the rest of the islands. Surf along east
facing shores will build through the weekend as trade winds
strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Burke
MARINE...Kino

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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