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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

484
FXHW60 PHFO 131956
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
956 AM HST Wed Nov 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge north of the state will maintain light winds and
mostly dry weather through Thursday. A trend towards wetter
weather will begin from Friday afternoon into Saturday as a cold
front approaches the islands from the northwest and tropical
moisture moves in from the southeast. Unsettled weather will
continue across the state through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak ridge north of the state will maintain light winds and
mostly dry weather through Thursday. Due to the light winds,
afternoon sea breezes may cause a few showers to develop over
select areas of the state. Overnight land breezes, should allow
cloud cover to clear out and temperatures to cool off to near
normal lows for this time of year.

Starting Friday, a front will approach Kauai from the northwest.
Meanwhile, a surface trough will reach the Big Island from the
east. This will bring increasing chances of showers over the Big
Island and Kauai on Friday afternoon. As the front nears Kauai,
increasing instability combined with the sea breeze convergence
may lead to heavier showers over Kauai in the evening.

The front is then expected to move into Kauai Friday night and
stall near Kauai on Saturday. The surface trough will bring
increasing amounts of moisture to the Big Island with the latest
guidance indicating 1.5 to 2.0 inches of precipitable water
values. The combination of these two weather features will bring
unsettled weather on Saturday with the greatest chance of heavier
showers over the Big Island.

Beyond Saturday, there is large uncertainty in the forecast as a
cut off low moves over the state on Sunday. The position of this
low will be key to determine the areas of heavier precipitation
with drier weather expected on the western side of the low and
wetter weather expected east of the low. The latest guidance is
suggesting the center of the low moving near Oahu on Sunday
afternoon. This scenario would suggest heavier showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Maui County and the Big Island. Stay
tuned for weather updates as the extended forecast will evolve
over time. Nonetheless, unsettled weather will likely persist
through early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
A weak, stable trade wind flow will be overpowered by land and sea
breezes in most areas. VFR conditions will prevail, with isolated
MVFR ceilings developing over interior terrain during the
afternoon, followed by clearing overnight. Trades will shift
southeasterly on Thursday, though a stable land and sea breeze
pattern will persist. No AIRMETs expected.


&&

.MARINE...
Light easterly flow will prevail today as a weak area of high
pressure passes by north of the area. Southerly flow will begin to
develop on Thursday, then continue through Friday night as a
front approaches the area from the northwest. Northeast flow will
then develop on Saturday as the front stalls out over the west end
of the state. Winds will become easterly on Sunday and
strengthen. Winds may become strong enough on Sunday for Small
Craft Advisory conditions to occur over the typically windy waters
around Maui County and the Big Island.

The current northwest swell will continue to lower today. A
larger north-northwest swell is expected to arrive on Thursday,
peak Thursday night at advisory levels, then lower gradually
Friday and Saturday. A larger northwest swell is expected to
arrive on Saturday, peak Saturday night, then lower gradually
Sunday and Monday. Surf heights may reach low end warning levels
during the peak of this swell. Also, seas will reach Small Craft
Advisory levels over waters exposed to this swell.

A series of small southerly swells are expected through the
weekend. Surf will remain small along east facing shores due to
the light winds over and upstream of the state. Surf heights will
likely rise by early next week as high pressure build in to our
north.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino/Morrison
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Burke

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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