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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

013
FXHW60 PHFO 280142
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
342 PM HST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather and light winds will continue through Friday,
with sea breezes producing interior clouds and a few showers in
the afternoon. A brief return of trade winds Friday night and
Saturday will produce limited windward rainfall. Winds will
decline again on Sunday ahead of a weak front that will brush the
state late Monday. Trade winds will make another short comeback
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly light winds will be interrupted by brief bouts of trade
winds this week.

Dry and stable conditions and rather light winds are in place
this afternoon. A cold front 400 miles northwest of Kauai is
pushing a surface ridge to within 200 miles north the state.
Winds have eased and veered southeasterly, especially near Oahu
and Kauai, and as a result, sea breezes dominate over most areas
this afternoon. A ridge aloft remains over the state, resulting
in an inversion based between 4,000 and 5,000 ft, and precipitable
water over and just upwind of the islands remains under an inch.
Under these stable and rather dry conditions, scant rainfall
occurred during the past 24 hours.

Little change is due tonight and Friday. The surface ridge will
stall less than 100 miles north of Kauai, leaving weak
southeasterly winds from Kauai to Maui and more easterly winds
around the Big Island. Overnight land breezes will clear out low
clouds over most areas, and with the atmosphere remaining rather
dry and stable, afternoon sea breezes will produce only a few
interior showers.

A short-lived increase in trade winds will occur Friday night and
Saturday. The above mentioned front will dissipate before
reaching the islands, and a following surface high will quickly
pass north of the state, leading to a brief period of gentle to
moderate trade winds. The air mass will remain stable and somewhat
dry, suggesting minimal windward rainfall.

Winds will ease and shift southeasterly again Sunday and Monday as
another front approaches the state. Expect a return to a land and
sea breeze pattern, and with mid level ridging in place, showers
should be modest and favor interior areas each afternoon. The
latest GFS run has come into better agreement with the ECMWF,
showing that the front will stall and dissipate near Kauai Monday
night. An upper level trough will swing over the islands Monday
night, but enhancement to showers is not appearing likely at this
time.

Another quick bout of trade winds may occur on Tuesday, followed
by a return to variable winds Wednesday as a surface high moves
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...
A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will produce
relatively dry and stable conditions with light to moderate east
to southeast winds across the state. Land breezes will develop
this evening in many areas with clouds gradually clearing over
interior and mountain areas. Another similar day is expected on
Friday with light winds and daytime sea breezes developing. VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.

AIRMET Tango had been cancelled earlier today and there are no
advisories currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across
the region this afternoon as a front to our northwest has pushed
the subtropical ridge southward near Kauai. Winds have veered to
southeasterlies across the western half of the state while light
to moderate trade winds persist farther to the east. Stronger
trade winds will return this weekend.

A northwest swell will continue to diminish tonight, remaining
below advisory thresholds through Friday afternoon. The next in a
series of northwest swells will arrive Friday night, pushing surf
heights along exposed north and west facing shores into the low end
High Surf Advisory (HSA) range by Saturday. Another larger northwest
swell arrives on Tuesday morning with solid HSA conditions expected
from Tuesday into Wednesday. South shore surf will remain very small
today and tomorrow, with a small boost possible from Friday into the
weekend. Very small surf will continue along east facing shores into
early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Kinel/Kino
MARINE...Powell

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