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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

935
FXHW60 PHFO 221948
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
948 AM HST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Stable conditions will prevail through Thursday as a ridge
remains just north or over the islands. While windward Big Island
and east Maui will likely experience typical shower activity,
most of the state will be under a stable land and sea breeze
pattern, featuring afternoon clouds and a few showers over island
terrain and partial clearing at night. A front will move down the
island chain Friday into Saturday, bringing a period of rainfall
and ushering in a cool airmass for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The state is under a stable east to southeast flow this morning.
The surface ridge that was parked near Kauai yesterday lifted
about 100 miles north of Kauai overnight. This is driving a
moderate to fresh easterly trade wind flow around the Big Island
and a weaker southeast background flow near Kauai. As a result,
land breezes developed overnight and persist over most areas from
Kauai to Maui, with dry conditions dominating. The trade wind flow
is currently carrying a small batch of low level moisture onto
windward Big Island and east Maui, where modest shower activity is
occurring. The atmosphere remains stable as a ridge aloft is
holding firm over the state, and precipitable water continues to
be near to slightly below january normal. Expect another round of
afternoon sea breezes, leading to clouds and a few showers over
island terrain and interior sections today.

The stable and somewhat dry weather pattern will persist through
Thursday. Over most areas, a land and sea breeze regime will
continue to produce clouds and some showers each afternoon,
followed by mostly clear conditions overnight and in the morning
hours. The easterly trade wind flow around windward Big Island
and east Maui will continue to deliver modest showers. A mid
level ridge will remain overhead, maintaining stable conditions.

A front will move down the island chain Friday into Saturday. Due
to differences in the GFS and ECMWF models, fine tuning of the
exact timing will need to be done over the next couple of days.
That said, expect rainfall to favor north facing terrain and
windward slopes, though all areas should pick up shower activity.
Breezy northeast winds will likely develop behind the front,
ushering in a cool air mass with dew points in the mid to upper
50s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected for the next two
days. VFR conditions will prevail.

A surface ridge will remain near Kauai through Thursday. The ridge
will produce gentle variable winds over Kauai and Oahu and moderate
E winds over Maui county and the Big Island. The E winds will
carry scattered showers over the east side of the Big Island,
mainly during the night and early morning hours. Sea breezes will
produce afternoon clouds over interior areas of Oahu and Kauai.
The atmosphere over the area will remain dry and stable through
Thursday, so clouds and showers will be limited.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will remain just north of Kauai through Thursday putting
the island chain in a light east southeast wind flow. A weak cold
front will move through the islands Friday and Saturday, with
fresh to strong northeast winds filling in behind on Saturday.

A northwest swell will build tonight, peaking at 10 feet, 16
seconds on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surf along north and
west facing shores will reach advisory levels with this swell, and
reach the Kona coast on the Big Island as well. A reinforcing
northwest swell of similar size will arrive Thursday night, peak
early Friday, then drop off this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory
(for seas) should also go into effect starting tonight for coastal
waters exposed to both northwest swells. A small east swell
expected Wednesday into Thursday due to a pocket of fresh to
strong winds upstream of the state. Surf will remain small across
the south facing shores this week.

The occurrence of the gale low north-northeast of the islands
this weekend will lead to slight bump along the exposed north and
east facing shores early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Donaldson
MARINE...Foster

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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