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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

965
FXHW60 PHFO 261324
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
324 AM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the next few
days. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry conditions leeward.
The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see clouds and
widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening, followed by
clearing skies each night and morning. A wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern may develop during the middle and later parts
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry conditions prevail across most of the Aloha State on
this early Sunday morning, with widely scattered light showers
moving quickly to the west-southwest within the trade wind flow
over windward sections of the islands. Surface analysis shows
high pressure centered far to the north-northwest of the state,
with moderate to breezy trade winds prevailing to the south of
this high over the islands. Mimic-TPW satellite imagery shows a
relatively dry airmass over and upstream of the islands. The 12Z
soundings show typical conditions, with PW values around 1.3 inches
and inversions around 8000 feet.

Model consensus maintains persistent high pressure to our north
during the next several days, with the anchoring high
strengthening slightly and shifting a bit eastward. This will
maintain moderate to breezy trade winds locally, focusing clouds
and showers across windward and mauka areas of the islands. Model
consensus maintains a rather dry and stable airmass over the
islands through Tuesday, so expect showers to remain mostly light
and scattered even over windward areas.

Guidance continues to indicate that a wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern could develop by midweek, when models develop
a mid/upper level trough near or just west of the main island
chain and bring an area of enhanced lower level moisture in from
the east. Moisture-stability parameters show the potential for
enhanced showers and perhaps even isolated thunderstorms from
Wednesday through at least Thursday. Will continue to monitor
during the next few days, but it is too soon to make any major
adjustments to the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will predominate across the state through the day. Expect
only brief periods of MVFR conditions in windward and mauka
sections, especially in the morning and evening hours, as
scattered showery low clouds move along on the prevailing trade
flow.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
The overnight ASCAT pass clipped the Big Island and Maui waters and
reflected advisory-level winds across the Alenuihaha Channel and the
waters south of the Big Island. This lines up well with the latest
model guidance, which supports extending the small craft advisory
for these waters through tonight, as well as for the Pailolo Channel
and Maalaea Bay waters. Elsewhere, the winds are projected to remain
just below advisory levels through much of the week with fresh trade
winds persisting south of high pressure. The latest nearshore wave
model guidance indicates the maximum seas across these windier zones
remaining just below advisory level through the week.

Out at the area beaches, rough surf will continue along the east
facing beaches through the week due to strong trade winds south of
high pressure centered north of the state. After another small
southerly pulse moves through tonight through Tuesday with below
advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of small surf
seems likely through the remainder of the week and much of the first
week of July. The ECMWF-WAVE solution depicts a batch of gales
setting up southeast of New Zealand within Hawaii's swell window
around the second of July, which would support a slight increase in
south shore surf through the second week of July. However, the
WAVEWATCH III and ensemble guidance depict a weaker solution over
this area southeast of New Zealand through this time.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Gibbs

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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