Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Polar_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Lightning_Data
Forecasts
Vog_Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

828
FXHW60 PHFO 250145
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE. STABLE
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING A STABLE CAP ON THE AIRMASS OVER THE
STATE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WEATHER
PRODUCING FEATURES CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

A 1027 MB HIGH AT THE SURFACE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE IS BRINGING TRADE WINDS TO THE STATE TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE TRADES IS KEEPING SHOWERS PASSING OVER
WINDWARD AREAS AND IN PLUMES TO THE LEESIDES OF SOME ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INVADE LEEWARD
AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

A FRONTAL CLOUD AND SHOWER BAND IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FEATURE AND A
WEAKER SHOWER BAND IN-BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL
WEAKER BAND IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AREAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IS TIMED FOR AROUND LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
THE MORE DEFINED SECOND CLOUD BAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINING FIRM THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWER INTENSITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED WINDWARD AND A FEW
AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN RANGES...LIKE THE KOOLAU/S.

FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT
FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE
GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1035 MB HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN. GFS ALSO DEPICTS A FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT
FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY FOCUSED
WINDWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...LEEWARD AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL AROUND THE END OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE
WINDIER CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BRENCHLEY




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman