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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

166
FXHW60 PHFO 261329
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
329 AM HST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TODAY...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
STARTING TONIGHT...RESULTING IN BREEZIER TRADES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A STABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP TRADE
SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ABUNDANT ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAVE BEEN LARGELY DRY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME PERSISTENT SHOWERS ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA. HOWEVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND HAS REMAINED SOUPY WITH
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUING. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022
MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALONG 30N SEPARATING THIS HIGH FROM A LARGER 1026 MB
HIGH ABOUT 1250 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING
FOUND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
AROUND 9000 FEET. MEANWHILE THE LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG
INVERSION BASED AROUND 5500 FEET...AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH
PWAT OF ONLY 0.77 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL.

THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS LINGERED NEAR MAUI COUNTY
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FINALLY WASH OUT LATER TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. MOST OF THE
STATE WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO THE STRONG/LOW INVERSION AND LACK
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 40N FROM TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
LAND AREAS DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MOST COMMON DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE MAY SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDWARD
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WHEN THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACH THE STATE. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS PWATS AROUND ONE
INCH...WHICH IS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE EVEN OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY INDICATIONS OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATE
NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS...SOME WITH
ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS...ARE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER
NORTH CLOCKWISE THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLES. THIS IS WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. ON THE BIG
ISLAND...THOUGH...MVFR HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT...FROM UPOLU POINT
TO VOLCANO. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS THE RULE.

AN AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BIG ISLAND. AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE POSTED
AT 0600 HST AS TRADE WINDS RAMP UP.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL HAS CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH BUOY
51101 AND WAIMEA BAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES WILL BE DROPPED AS SCHEDULED WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

A NEW NNE SWELL...GENERATED BY A GALE LOW 1400 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF OAHU...IS DUE TO ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING TONIGHT. THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH
BUILDING WIND WAVES DUE TO INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH
SURF TO DEVELOP ON EAST FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A
NORTHERN EXPOSURE. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOME
OF THE EAST FACING SHORES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SURF WILL
BE INCREASING ACROSS NORTH FACING SHORES AS WELL...BUT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE.
THIS SWELL WILL ALSO CAUSE A CONCERN FOR HARBOR SURGES INTO
KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF 25 KNOT
WINDS IN THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH A SMALL AREA OF NEAR 30 KNOT WINDS WEST OF UPOLU
POINT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST OF
THE MARINE ZONES DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND A COMBINATION OF
WIND WAVES AND NW/N SWELLS PUSHING COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FEET.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL




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