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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

639
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS TODAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD AREAS TOMORROW AS
WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. MAINLY INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL IS DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL




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