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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

495
FXHW60 PHFO 031407
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS,

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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