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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

182
FXHW60 PHFO 271404
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will continue through early next week as
high pressure persists north of the islands. Passing low clouds and
brief showers will favor windward and mauka areas during nights and
mornings. An increase in trade wind showers is expected later today
through Monday. Weather may become more active, with potentially an
increase in winds by the middle of next week, as the islands may
experience the effects from Tropical Storm Madeline.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface high far north-northeast of the state continues to bring
moderate to locally breezy ENE trade winds to the islands today.
Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings both depicted a typical trade
wind weather profile, with low level moisture extending to about 9
thousand feet and a marginally stable airmass. Low clouds with
embedded showers carried by the winds are reaching the islands at
times, affecting mainly windward areas. Lee areas of the Big Island
will see afternoon clouds and upslope showers, with possible heavier
isolated showers developing along the Kona coast during the evening.

The aforementioned high will stay at the about the same place
through Sunday, then slowly move south early next week. As such,
locally breezy trade winds will prevail across the state through
early next week. Latest satellite imagery showed a little more
widespread moisture northeast of the islands. Therefore, an uptick
in the trade showers is expected later today through Monday.

Another more widespread area of moisture in the trade flow may reach
the state Tuesday through Thursday as Madeline approaches the area
from the E. The latest official forecast from the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) in Miami indicates that Madeline will be nearing the
Big Island around the middle of next week. While uncertainty on the
case remains high at this time, there is the potential for tropical
storm conditions impacting the islands. Continue to monitor the
forecast in the coming days as changes are almost a given. It is
still expected that Madeline will cross 140W into the central
Pacific later today, with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in
Honolulu taking over the responsibility of issuing advisories. Also
with rather high uncertainty, additional unsettled weather
associated with Tropical Cyclone Lester may affect the state over
Labor Day holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail...but low-level NE winds will carry enough clouds
and showers over the islands to produce isolated MVFR conditions
over windward areas. There could be enough MVFR to require AIRMET
SIERRA for MTN OBSC at times over the next 24 hours. Otherwise, no
AIRMETs or SIGMETs are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for waters around
Maui county and the Big Island, due to locally breezy trade winds
accelerating around the high terrain. Winds will ease a little
today, only to firm up into early next week. Believe wind speeds
will remain high enough to warrant the SCA through Sunday.

No significant swells are expected through the middle of next week,
though surf along E facing shores will be slightly elevated due to
the stronger trades. Winds and seas, as well as surf along E facing
shores, may increase toward the middle and end of next week due to
the possible effects from Tropical Cyclones Lester and Madeline.
Uncertainty on this forecast scenario is high.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

Aviation...Powell
Rest...Hui

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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