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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

222
FXHW60 PHFO 230623
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH REST OF THE WORK WEEK. PASSING SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE ISLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TRADE WINDS WITH AN INCREASE IN PASSING
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH SETTLED WEATHER OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING...AS MODERATE TRADE
WINDS STAGED A COME BACK EARLIER TODAY. MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS EXIT THE STATE AS WELL...AS INDICATED BY THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE STATE FROM REPORTING STATIONS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE AIR MASS STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS REVEALED BY THE STILL ELEVATED DEW POINTS...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS DID BRIEFLY
FLARED UP ON THE LEE AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLIER THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED IN THE PAST HOUR.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE. THEREFORE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE WITH LESS MOISTURE. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE TRADE
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. AS SUCH...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER TRADE WIND
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. BIG
ISLAND LEE AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS.

TRADES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE STATE. THEREFORE...A BOOST IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY...MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT DECLINE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS
ACROSS THOSE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS.

NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE SEEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BIGGEST
SURF WILL FROM TRADE WIND SWELL ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. SEE THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH
BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. LEE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS PERSIST.

AS TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...AIRMET FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE. THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
CONTINUES FOR NOW OVER N THRU E SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS DUE TO THE
LOW CLOUDS. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR THE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AIRMET TO BE CANCELLED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR THE PAILOLO
AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

HUI





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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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