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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

429
FXHW60 PHFO 211944
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
945 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 800 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST
OF KAUAI AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLOUD
MOTIONS SHOW EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG
ISLAND IS PARTLY BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH LOCAL LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW PARTLY BLOCKED BY
THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS AND BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND SPREADS OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH THERE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS TODAY WITH PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. ONLY SMALL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY LONGER...BUT
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON




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