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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

756
FXHW60 PHFO 201356
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 AM HST Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A light trade wind pattern will continue today with afternoon
sea breezes along western slopes of all islands. Some vog
concentrations will spread over the smaller islands through
tonight. A building high pressure system across the Central
Pacific will increase trade winds on Thursday, pushing any vog
emissions towards the southwest away from smaller islands. Trade
winds will become breezy to locally windy by Friday and continue
through next week with increasing clouds and showers favoring
windward slopes and mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak high pressure ridge remains to the north of the state with
light trade wind flow and daytime onshore sea breezes along
western slopes of all islands with only isolated showers in the
forecast for today. A remnant front lingers just north of Kauai
this morning as low level wind flow just north of the state has
become more southeasterly. These winds will drive the cloud band
with this front away from the islands. Vog (Volcanic smOG)
emissions will also drift westward over most of the smaller
islands today, possibly as far north as Oahu and Kauai later this
afternoon. The good news is that stronger trade winds will return
on Thursday, pushing the vog towards the southwest away from the
smaller islands.

The larger scale weather pattern changes on Thursday as a strong
surface high pressure center builds into the Central Pacific.
Trade wind speeds will increase through Friday, becoming breezy
to locally windy across the islands. Stronger trade winds will
produce higher chances for clouds and showers favoring typical
windward and mauka areas with brief periods of showers drifting
into leeward sections. Expect this trade wind weather pattern
with stronger winds to last through the end of next week. Long
range weather forecast guidance remains in good agreement with
giving us high confidence in this extended trade wind weather
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gentle trade winds and mainly dry weather will continue across
the state today, with VFR conditions prevailing. Isolated
MVFR ceilings will be possible on windward slopes, and areas of
MVFR visibilities will be possible across parts of the Big Island
due to volcanic emissions from Kilauea.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect or anticipated today.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light with land and sea breezes expected near
the coasts once again today. Fresh to strong trades are forecast
to return through the second half of the week as high pressure builds
far northeast of the area. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed by Thursday for winds reaching 25 knots in the windy areas
around the Big Island and Maui.

Surf will remain small with no significant swells anticipated into
the upcoming weekend. Surf will gradually build along east facing
shores as trade winds strengthen later late tonight through the
upcoming weekend. Overlapping swells from a storm southeast of New
Zealand may reach the area early next week. We will get a better
idea of the size of this swell over the weekend as the swell
reaches the buoy near American Samoa.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jacobson
MARINE...Gibbs

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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