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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 232007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1007 AM HST Sun Oct 23 2016

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue today due to
strong high pressure far north of the area. The winds will
gradually weaken over the next few days as the high weakens just a
bit. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas and will be highly dependent on incoming moisture sources.
Another strong high will build in north of the area later in the
week with breezy to locally windy trade winds expected once again.


High pressure located far to the north of the state is providing
for a rather breezy trade wind pattern across the area. The
atmosphere is rather stable due to an upper level ridge situated
over the area. Moisture embedded in the trades is providing for
some light passing showers over some windward and mauka locations
while most leeward locations are rather dry.

Over the next several days, a broad area of low pressure will be
present far to the northeast of the state while the ridge axis
associated with the high to our north gets nudged southward closer
to the state. This will cause a gradual drop off in trade wind
speeds but they will continue to blow. The upper level ridge is
forecast to remain near or over the area over the next several
days keeping the airmass rather stable. Rainfall chances over the
next several days will be highly dependent on incoming moisture
sources. Some of these rain sources may be in the from of frontal
remnants. The first one, though rather weak, is expected to move
across the area later tonight and Monday morning with a second one
possibly reaching the area around the Tuesday night time frame
with a third one possibly reaching the area around the Thursday
night time frame. With trade winds remaining in place, the
greatest chances of rainfall will be over windward and mauka

Toward the end of the week, a new strong high will build in to our
north, with another round of breezy to locally strong trade winds


Strong and gusty trade winds will hold into tonight before easing
slightly Monday. AIRMET TANGO is posted for the areas over and
immediately south through west of the mountains. The morning
soundings from PHLI and PHTO show the a strong inversion sloping
from 6 kft at PHLI to 9 kft at PHTO. However, the PHTO sounding
was likely launched near or in a shower and the inversion is
likely lower now. An AMDAR report into PHOG around 19Z shows the
inversion near 6 kft.

Clouds and showers will favor the windward and mountain areas,
possibly introducing brief periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS. The stronger
trade winds will push some showers to leeward areas. Expect
terminals to remain predominately VFR.


A Small Craft Advisory remains posted for all Hawaiian coastal
waters due to the strong trade winds. With the expected gradual
decrease in trade winds over the upcoming days, some zones will
gradually drop out of advisory status while remaining up at least
through Monday for the typically windy waters around Maui County
and The Big Island.

A High Surf Advisory remains posted along east facing shores due
to elevated surf created by the strong trade winds. Surf will
gradually lower over the next couple of days as the trade winds
decrease. A moderate size northwest swell is expected to arrive
Monday night, peak late Tuesday and Tuesday night, then lower
gradually Wednesday and Thursday. There will also be a series of
small southerly swells throughout the forecast period.


High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Windward-Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-
Windward Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-South Big
Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big
Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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