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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

056
FXHW60 PHFO 261424
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT TO ALLOW LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A SOMEWHAT
CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...KEEPING SKIES SOMEWHAT CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS DID NOT BRING
PRECIPITATION...AS GAGES AROUND THE STATE DID NOT REGISTER MUCH
RAINFALL...IF ANY. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS BOTH
CONTINUE TO REVEAL A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER STILL AT AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE STATE. THIS LOW IS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AT THIS TIME...AND WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE STATE TODAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. ALSO LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
TODAY...KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AT TIMES.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH NEXT FEW DAYS...IT
WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO EXTEND JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY OVER THE STATE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN
SLACK...RESULTING IN RATHER LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. HENCE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A HYBRID LIGHT TRADE WINDS WITH LOCAL LAND AND
SEA BREEZES SCENARIO FOR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PERSISTS FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...PASSING
NEAR THE ISLANDS. AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY WILL STAY SOMEWHAT
STABLE EVEN WITH THE PASSAGES OF THE SHORTWAVES...AS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS. BUT THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN A BIT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THESE PASSING SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER DAYTIME SEA BREEZES.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX TO OUR NORTH BY
THE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MODELS SHOW A HIGH MAY BUILD NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA BRIEFLY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE
A BIT AFTERWARD...WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAVING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WHILE GFS HAS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SHALL BASED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD GFS DUE
TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR...BRINGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE WINDS
BACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT N TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP MAINLY
STABLE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTH FACING AND WINDWARD SLOPES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS OF OAHU...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...WITH VFR CEILINGS SPILLING OVER INTO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
OAHU. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION COULD BE NEEDED
ON WINDWARD/NORTH SECTIONS OF OAHU THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS WINDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE...WHILE SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM THE ARE
MODEST AT MOST.

SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE CURRENT SOUTH
SWELL PEAKS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES AND WAVE WATCH MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATE THAT A GALE FORCE LOW BREWING EAST OF NEW ZEALAND WITH A
LONG FETCH IS PRODUCING A SWELL THAT WILL ARRIVE THE ISLANDS NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUN STILL INDICATES THIS
SWELL WILL BRING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...JACOBSON



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