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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 080154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
354 PM HST Sun Aug 7 2022

Showers over Kauai will diminish this evening, while drier air
and fair trade wind weather remains across the remainder of the
islands. Trade winds settling in across the islands, will refocus
showers along mainly windward and mauka areas this week. Trade
winds could gradually strengthen to locally strong by the middle
of the week, as an area of low pressure potentially develops and
passes far south of the state.


Current radar trends continue to show showers lifting up across
Kauai and the surrounding waters this afternoon. A few slightly
heavier showers were lingering over the western portions of the
island and its adjacent waters. Expect these showers to continue
over the western end of the state through this evening as a weak
surface trough continues to exit west, while moisture continues to
stream up across the region in advance of an upper low to the
northwest. Weak instability lingers just west of Kauai enhancing
some rainfall rates this evening, however the most unstable air
remains well north of the area. The latest trends show the deeper
layer moisture and showers will slowly diminish over Kauai later
evening, as the upper low slowly exits to the northwest.
Otherwise, a much drier airmass will continue to stream in from
the east across the remainder of the islands, generating fair
trade wind weather through tonight.

The trade winds which have already been developing over the
islands, will settle in across the state this week as the ridge
of high pressure becomes further established north of the state.
This trade wind pattern, will focus showers to more favored
windward areas through the middle of the week. Locally strong
trades are possible, along with some increase in showers over the
southern end of the state, by mid-week as an area of low pressure
potentially develops and passes far south of the state.


Moderate trades will return to all islands as high pressure
builds to the north of the state.

A weak area of enhanced low level moisture and instability moving
west of Kauai will continue to bring a slight uptick in afternoon
and evening shower activity. Otherwise, trades will allow for a
return of more typical scattered windward/ isolated leeward shower
regime tonight for all islands.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for portions of Maui and Molokai
due to low-level mechanical turbulence leeward of mountains.


Easterly trade winds will hold around the Big Island and Maui and
gradually strengthen over Oahu and Kauai waters tonight and
Monday. A surface trough northwest of Kauai will slowly weaken and
drift northward during this time, allowing high pressure to the
distant north to exert a greater influence. As a result, moderate
to locally strong easterly trade winds that are already in place
around the Big Island and Maui County will spread across the
entire area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy
waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended
through Wednesday night. A further increase in winds is expected
late Tuesday or Wednesday as a tropical disturbance passes far
south of the islands. This may require and expansion of the SCA to
additional waters.

Little significant swell is anticipated through the week. A small
short-period northeast swell will diminish on Monday. Building
trade winds will produce a gradual increase in short-period waves
to east facing shores during the next couple of days, peaking
near or slightly above seasonal average on Wednesday. A very
small, long-period south swell may arrive Tuesday and fade by
Thursday. A small, shorter-period south-southeast swell is
expected over the next couple of days, with a larger pulse from
the same direction possible next weekend.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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