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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

093
FXHW60 PHFO 110148
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
348 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend with moderate
trades expected next week. Showers will focus over windward and
mountain areas with a few reaching leeward locations. Day to day
shower trends will vary as pockets of moisture move through the
islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure located far north of the area will maintain breezy
trade winds into next week. Current satellite imagery depicts a field
of stable stratocumulus (SC) clouds upstream of the islands riding
the trades. The SC will bring cloudy skies to windward areas with
showers expected mainly over the mountains tonight as the
orography squeezes the moisture out of the SC.

Our large scale weather pattern looks to remain unchanged over the
next several days with a high pressure ridge north of the islands,
and fronts passing from west to east through the Gulf of Alaska.
Trades are expected to remain breezy through the weekend with a
slight weakening next week as the high shifts eastward. Showers
and clouds will focus over the mountain slopes and windward areas
with only brief passing showers expected over leeward locations.
Some increase in showers for Kauai and Oahu is possible Sunday
night into Monday as a upper trough skirts the northern part of
the state. Otherwise, day to day shower trends will vary as
pockets of moisture move through with the trade winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds and showers area starting to reach Oahu this afternoon,
and continue to impact windward Maui and the Big Island. Expecting
some of these clouds to reach the windward side of Kauai later
tonight. Overall VFR conditions are expected to prevail, however
some passing MVFR conditions are possible in clouds and showers.

Breezy conditions are expected to continue for the next
several days. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical low
level turbulence to the lee of all mountains, and will likely be
in place for a while.

Not expecting a need for any additional AIRMETs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
A breezy trade wind pattern will likely hold into Monday before
trending down slightly. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains
posted for the typically windier waters around the Big Island and
Maui County, as well as for windward Maui waters and the Kaiwi
Channel. The windward Maui waters and Kaiwi channel SCA goes
through Saturday and the SCA for the waters around Maui County
and the Big Island through Sunday. This may need to be extended
into Monday.

No significant swells are due well into next week. The current
small south- southwest swell will taper off tonight. A mix of
background south and southeast swells will continue to produce
small surf along south facing shores through next week. Trade wind
swells will gradually build through today, then hold into early
next week, producing choppy surf along east facing shores.
Additionally, TC Cristina in the far East Pacific could produce a
small moderate- period east swell the middle of next week. Surf
along north facing shores will remain nearly flat through next
week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morrison
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...EATON

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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