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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 192021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1021 AM HST Tue Jun 19 2018

A gentle trade wind pattern will continue through Wednesday with
afternoon leeward sea breezes. Some volcanic emissions will
spread over the smaller islands Wednesday into Thursday. Building
high pressure will increase trade winds Thursday afternoon, and
push any emissions south of the smaller islands. Trade winds will
become breezy Friday and continue into next week.


An old frontal boundary has sagged far enough south to bring
cloudy skies to Kauai this morning, and some of those clouds may
reach Oahu's North Shore this afternoon and tonight. The boundary
is expected to move west and dissipate late tonight. Very limited
rainfall is expected through Wednesday as the atmosphere remains
dry and stable. The surface ridge that has been persistently
positioned about 200 miles north of Kauai will remain for another
day or so, bringing light trade winds to windward areas, and
afternoon seas breezes and nighttime land breezes to leeward
locations. Volcanic emissions will spread north along the windward
Big Island coast Wednesday into Thursday as winds just above the
surface shift from the ESE. This will allow some of those
emissions to reach Maui County and Oahu.

Thursday, trade winds will be on the rise as high pressure builds
in from the NW and the surface ridge slowly retreats to the N.
Showers will focus over windward and mountain areas with an
occasional shower reaching leeward locations. Trade winds will be
breezy Friday and through the weekend as a 1035 mb high pressure
system takes firm control of the weather pattern in the central
Pacific. Aloft, global models are indicating a weak upper low will
drift close to Hawaii from the east and weaken our trade wind
inversion. This would allow for increasing cloud tops and the
potential for an increase in showers Sunday and into next week.


Light trade winds and mainly dry weather will continue across the
state today. Expect mainly VFR conditions again today through
Wednesday. There is a slight chance for MVFR condition in three areas;
the windward slopes with showers and clouds, areas of Kauai and
Oahu affected by the boundary dipping south, and those areas on
the Big Island due to volcanic emissions.

No AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated through this afternoon.


Winds will remain light through midweek as a weak front north of
the area moves south slowly and dissipates. Land and sea breezes
conditions will develop near shore through Wednesday. Fresh to
strong trades are forecast to return through the second half of
the week as a high builds far northeast of the area. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed Thursday for winds reaching 25
knots in the windy areas around the Big Island and Maui.

Surf will remain small through midweek with no significant swells
anticipated. Surf will build along east facing shores as trade
winds strengthen later in the week and through the upcoming
weekend. Overlapping swells from a storm southeast of New Zealand
may reach the area early next week. We will get a better idea of
the size of this swell later in the week as the swell reaches the
buoy near American Samoa.






Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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