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Temp7.5 C
RH47 %
WindNNE 5 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 071935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
935 AM HST Sun Aug 7 2022

Trade winds over the southern end of the state, will expand
westward across the remaining islands today. Showers over the
western islands this morning will slowly diminish by this evening,
while a drier airmass across the remainder of the islands
generates fair trade wind weather today. A return of windward and
mauka showers is expected Monday as trades gradually strengthen,
with locally strong trades possible by the middle of this week.


Current radar trends continue to show scattered showers lifting
up across Kauai and surrounding waters, while a band of slightly
heavier showers lingers south of the island. Expect these showers
to continue over the western end of the state through this
afternoon as a weak surface trough exits west, while moisture
streams across the region in advance of an upper low to the
northwest. Some weak instability lingers just west of Kauai into
the afternoon which could enhance rainfall rates some today,
however the most unstable air (Showalter, mid level lapse rates)
will remain well north of the area, reducing the chance for
thunderstorms. The latest trends show the deeper layer moisture
and showers will diminish over Kauai late this afternoon and early
evening, as the upper low slowly exits to the northwest.
Otherwise, a much drier airmass will continue to stream in from
the east across the remainder of the islands, generating fair
trade wind weather through tonight.

The trade winds which have already developed over the southern
islands, will slowly continue to expand across the remainder of
the islands by this evening, as the ridge of high pressure becomes
further established north of the state. This will result in a
hybrid sea breeze/trade wind pattern today, before trades settle
in statewide on Monday.

More typical trade wind showers, or slightly drier than normal
weather, is expected during the first half of the week. Locally
strong trades are possible by mid-week as an area of low pressure
potentially develops and passes far south of the state.


Moderate trades will return to all islands today as high pressure
builds to the north of the state. A weak area of enhanced low
level moisture and instability will be moving west of Oahu and
Kauai through this afternoon and bring a slight uptick in
afternoon shower activity to these islands. Otherwise, trades will
allow for a return of more typical scattered windward/ isolated
leeward showers tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for portions of Maui and Molokai
due to low-level mechanical turbulence leeward of mountains.

Easterly trade winds will gradually strengthen from east to west
tonight and Monday. A surface trough northwest of Kauai will
slowly weaken and drift northward during this time, allowing high
pressure to the distant north to exert a greater influence. As a
result, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds that are
already in place around the Big Island and Maui County will spread
across the entire area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect
for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big
Island through early Tuesday morning, and the SCA will need to be
extended, likely for several days. In addition, a further
increase in winds is expected late Tuesday or Wednesday as a
tropical disturbance passes far south of the islands. This may
require and expansion of the SCA to additional waters.

Little significant swell is anticipated through next week. A
small short-period northeast swell will diminish on Monday.
Building trade winds will produce a gradual increase in short-
period waves to east facing shores during the next couple of
days, peaking near or slightly above season average on Wednesday.
A very small, long-period south swell may arrive Tuesday and fade
by Thursday. A small, shorter-period south- southeast swell is
expected over the next couple of days, with a larger pulse from
the same direction possible next weekend.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office