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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
411
FXHW60 PHFO 151524
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
524 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Lala will move over or just south of Big Island
today and continue to the west northwest or west through the
remainder of the weekend. Wind, rain and surf impacts will be felt
statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state.
Trade wind weather will return by Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern through late Sunday will be impacts
from Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5 AM HST this morning, Tropical
Storm Lala was located about 110 miles southeast of South Point
moving west northwest around 13 mph. The center of rotation can be
picked up on radar as it drifts closer towards our local coastal
water zones. Based on the latest forecast from the National
Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to move over or near the
southern end of the Big Island by this afternoon, then continue
moving to the west northwest, with the center of circulation
remaining south of the smaller islands. Remember impacts can occur
well outside the center of the storm. Please stay up to date on
the latest forecasts, and prepare for the impacts described below.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds (39
mph to 73 mph) have already begun across parts of the Big Island,
and may begin across Maui County as early as late this morning,
Oahu as early as this evening, and Kauai as early as tonight. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island and surrounding
waters due to a non- negligible chance of hurricane force winds
(74 mph or greater). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
rest of the state and surrounding waters. Localized areas of
highly enhanced and damaging winds are possible over and downwind
of the mountainous terrain, even well away from the tropical
cyclone center. These localized strong winds and gusts will also
be felt in advance of the arrival of Lala and should be kept in
mind as last minute preparations are being made.
HEAVY RAINFALL...Periods of heavy rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Lala have already begun to affect the Big Island,
and are expected to reach Maui County by this afternoon, and Oahu
and Kauai by this evening into Sunday. Orographic enhancement will
result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical
flow interacts with island terrain. If heavier rainfall persists
over the same locations, flash flooding and rapidly rising streams
are possible. The location of heaviest rain will likely favor
windward portions of the Big Island and Maui. The current forecast
for windward portion of the Big Island has 10 to 20 inches of
rain, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches are possible on windward Maui and up 8 inches of rainfall
could occur across the remainder of the island chain. While the
highest rainfall amounts will be focused over windward areas,
leeward areas will also have a significant flood risk. Heavy rain
could persist into Monday for some areas. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for the Big Island and Maui County through late tonight,
and for Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau from this evening to early Monday
morning.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala is expected to generate a large easterly
swell as it moves northwestward. Surf may build along exposed east
and southeast facing shores from east to west as the system
approaches. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for east facing
shores of Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu, and a High Surf
Advisory is posted for east facing shores of Kauai. Very large and
extremely rough seas are expected to rapidly increase Saturday
and Sunday on exposed southeast and east shores and may produce
damaging surf, significant beach erosion, and overwash across
vulnerable coastal infrastructure, mainly on the Big Island of
Hawaii. Highest storm surge up to 3 feet is forecast for the
eastern side of the Big Island.
In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory
packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS
Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast
package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after
the release of NHC's suite of products, to incorporate the latest
and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.
Trade winds will resume through the middle of next week in the
wake of Lala's departure.
&&
.AVIATION...
The center of Tropical Storm Lala is approximately 110 nm
southeast of Hilo early this morning and is moving west northwest
at around 10 knots. Lala is forecast to pass in the vicinity of
South Point, Big Island this afternoon. Island-wide TAF sites
will experience strong northeast winds gusting to tropical storm
force through the period. Ceilings will lower to MVFR to
occasional IFR and visibilities will deteriorate within periods of
heavy rain from east-to-west through early Sunday.
A Big Island and Maui AIRMET for surface winds greater than 30
knots and IFR conditions is currently in effect.
AIRMET SIERRA is currently in effect for north through east
areas of Big Island, Maui, Lanai and Molokai for mountain
obscuration above 2500 feet.
AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence remains in effect
immediately south and west of mountains due to low level winds.
TANGO likely continue the next couple of days.
&&
.MARINE...
NE winds continue to strengthen today as Tropical Storm Lala
passes very near the southern tip of the Big Island. The
strongest winds are anticipated Saturday evening into Saturday
night for the waters surrounding the Big Island and Maui. Winds
peak for the waters surrounding Kauai and Oahu during Sunday.
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect
for all coastal and offshore waters. Expect dangerous conditions
including torrential rainfall, a few thunderstorms, and high surf.
Lala will track WNW through the weekend, clearing the western
islands by Monday. Tuesday into the rest of the week, a return to
easterly trades across the region is expected.
Surf increases quickly today along east facing shores as a medium-
period swell generated by Tropical Storm Lala fills in. The High Surf
Warning remains in effect for E facing shores of the Big Island and
Maui as well as the SE facing coasts of the Puna and Ka'u Districts
where the highest surf is expected. Surf is also forecast to reach
low end warning criteria for E facing shores of Oahu and Molokai and
advisory levels for Kauai. Surf will rapidly decline Saturday night
for the southern islands but may take until Sunday to fall below
advisory threshold for Oahu and Kauai as Lala begins to gain distance
from the island chain.
For N shores, anticipate choppy conditions with swell energy
wrapping from the east through the weekend. For S shores, surf
will remain below the advisory threshold but may experience a small
boost in short-period swell as Lala tracks south of the island chain
on Saturday night. Longer period energy from a distant Southern Ocean
swell will also help to maintain south shore surf Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing humidity and rainfall with Lala will remove fire
weather concerns through at least early next week. The
temperature inversion will not be present today.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tropical Storm Warning for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae
Mountains-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward
West-Haleakala Summit-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East
Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward-
Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central
Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-
Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala.
Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night for
Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai
East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau
Windward-Koolau Leeward.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Olomana-Koolau
Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-Kona-Kohala-Big
Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai
Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-
South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
East-Big Island North.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maui Windward West-
Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-
Big Island East-Big Island North.
Hurricane Warning for Big Island-
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai
South.
Tropical Storm Warning for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...Quesada
FIRE WEATHER...Thomas
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
411
FXHW60 PHFO 151524
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
524 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Lala will move over or just south of Big Island
today and continue to the west northwest or west through the
remainder of the weekend. Wind, rain and surf impacts will be felt
statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state.
Trade wind weather will return by Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern through late Sunday will be impacts
from Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5 AM HST this morning, Tropical
Storm Lala was located about 110 miles southeast of South Point
moving west northwest around 13 mph. The center of rotation can be
picked up on radar as it drifts closer towards our local coastal
water zones. Based on the latest forecast from the National
Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to move over or near the
southern end of the Big Island by this afternoon, then continue
moving to the west northwest, with the center of circulation
remaining south of the smaller islands. Remember impacts can occur
well outside the center of the storm. Please stay up to date on
the latest forecasts, and prepare for the impacts described below.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds (39
mph to 73 mph) have already begun across parts of the Big Island,
and may begin across Maui County as early as late this morning,
Oahu as early as this evening, and Kauai as early as tonight. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island and surrounding
waters due to a non- negligible chance of hurricane force winds
(74 mph or greater). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
rest of the state and surrounding waters. Localized areas of
highly enhanced and damaging winds are possible over and downwind
of the mountainous terrain, even well away from the tropical
cyclone center. These localized strong winds and gusts will also
be felt in advance of the arrival of Lala and should be kept in
mind as last minute preparations are being made.
HEAVY RAINFALL...Periods of heavy rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Lala have already begun to affect the Big Island,
and are expected to reach Maui County by this afternoon, and Oahu
and Kauai by this evening into Sunday. Orographic enhancement will
result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical
flow interacts with island terrain. If heavier rainfall persists
over the same locations, flash flooding and rapidly rising streams
are possible. The location of heaviest rain will likely favor
windward portions of the Big Island and Maui. The current forecast
for windward portion of the Big Island has 10 to 20 inches of
rain, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches are possible on windward Maui and up 8 inches of rainfall
could occur across the remainder of the island chain. While the
highest rainfall amounts will be focused over windward areas,
leeward areas will also have a significant flood risk. Heavy rain
could persist into Monday for some areas. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for the Big Island and Maui County through late tonight,
and for Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau from this evening to early Monday
morning.
LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala is expected to generate a large easterly
swell as it moves northwestward. Surf may build along exposed east
and southeast facing shores from east to west as the system
approaches. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for east facing
shores of Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu, and a High Surf
Advisory is posted for east facing shores of Kauai. Very large and
extremely rough seas are expected to rapidly increase Saturday
and Sunday on exposed southeast and east shores and may produce
damaging surf, significant beach erosion, and overwash across
vulnerable coastal infrastructure, mainly on the Big Island of
Hawaii. Highest storm surge up to 3 feet is forecast for the
eastern side of the Big Island.
In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory
packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS
Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast
package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after
the release of NHC's suite of products, to incorporate the latest
and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.
Trade winds will resume through the middle of next week in the
wake of Lala's departure.
&&
.AVIATION...
The center of Tropical Storm Lala is approximately 110 nm
southeast of Hilo early this morning and is moving west northwest
at around 10 knots. Lala is forecast to pass in the vicinity of
South Point, Big Island this afternoon. Island-wide TAF sites
will experience strong northeast winds gusting to tropical storm
force through the period. Ceilings will lower to MVFR to
occasional IFR and visibilities will deteriorate within periods of
heavy rain from east-to-west through early Sunday.
A Big Island and Maui AIRMET for surface winds greater than 30
knots and IFR conditions is currently in effect.
AIRMET SIERRA is currently in effect for north through east
areas of Big Island, Maui, Lanai and Molokai for mountain
obscuration above 2500 feet.
AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence remains in effect
immediately south and west of mountains due to low level winds.
TANGO likely continue the next couple of days.
&&
.MARINE...
NE winds continue to strengthen today as Tropical Storm Lala
passes very near the southern tip of the Big Island. The
strongest winds are anticipated Saturday evening into Saturday
night for the waters surrounding the Big Island and Maui. Winds
peak for the waters surrounding Kauai and Oahu during Sunday.
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect
for all coastal and offshore waters. Expect dangerous conditions
including torrential rainfall, a few thunderstorms, and high surf.
Lala will track WNW through the weekend, clearing the western
islands by Monday. Tuesday into the rest of the week, a return to
easterly trades across the region is expected.
Surf increases quickly today along east facing shores as a medium-
period swell generated by Tropical Storm Lala fills in. The High Surf
Warning remains in effect for E facing shores of the Big Island and
Maui as well as the SE facing coasts of the Puna and Ka'u Districts
where the highest surf is expected. Surf is also forecast to reach
low end warning criteria for E facing shores of Oahu and Molokai and
advisory levels for Kauai. Surf will rapidly decline Saturday night
for the southern islands but may take until Sunday to fall below
advisory threshold for Oahu and Kauai as Lala begins to gain distance
from the island chain.
For N shores, anticipate choppy conditions with swell energy
wrapping from the east through the weekend. For S shores, surf
will remain below the advisory threshold but may experience a small
boost in short-period swell as Lala tracks south of the island chain
on Saturday night. Longer period energy from a distant Southern Ocean
swell will also help to maintain south shore surf Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing humidity and rainfall with Lala will remove fire
weather concerns through at least early next week. The
temperature inversion will not be present today.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tropical Storm Warning for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae
Mountains-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward
West-Haleakala Summit-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East
Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward-
Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central
Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-
Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala.
Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night for
Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai
East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau
Windward-Koolau Leeward.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Olomana-Koolau
Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-Kona-Kohala-Big
Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai
Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-
South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
East-Big Island North.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maui Windward West-
Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-
Big Island East-Big Island North.
Hurricane Warning for Big Island-
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai
South.
Tropical Storm Warning for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...Quesada
FIRE WEATHER...Thomas
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office