Current Conditions
Temp6.2 C
RH60 %
WindNE 5 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

614
FXHW60 PHFO 171742
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
742 AM HST Wed Aug 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Light east to southeast winds will linger into tonight, which
supports the land and sea breeze regime with humid conditions
continuing. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas, except
over interior and leeward locations through the afternoon and
evening hours where sea breezes form. A return of breezy easterly
trade wind conditions is anticipated Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Near-term guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the
weakness in the ridge holding north of the area into tonight as a
front passes far to the north. This has resulted in a light east
to southeast low-level flow for Hawaii that supports the land and
sea breeze regime continuing. Clouds and showers will favor
windward areas overnight through the morning hours, then over
interior and mauka locations through the afternoon and early
evening periods where sea breezes form. This combined with a
sufficient amount of low-level moisture approaching and moving
through and an upper trough lingering over the region could
trigger spotty heavy afternoon showers today, and a thunderstorm
or two over the slopes of the Big Island can't be ruled out.

Rising upper heights combined with drier air filling in from east
to west will lead to more stable conditions late Thursday through
the upcoming weekend. The surface ridge will retreat northward and
strengthen and a return of breezy trade wind conditions is
anticipated beginning Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak ridge north of the islands will keep light to moderate
trade winds in place through tonight, with localized land and sea
breezes common in sheltered leeward areas. Some brief MVFR
cigs/vis are possible in windward areas through mid-morning, with
greater coverage of MVFR conditions expected this afternoon over
island interior and leeward sections. Trade winds are expected to
strengthen from east to west across the island chain tonight, with
moderate to locally strong speeds on Thursday.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...

A ridge persists north of the islands this morning and will
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early Thursday
morning. Light winds will allow for development of local
land and sea breezes. Terrain-induced wind acceleration may
produce pockets of choppy sea conditions near some coasts during
the afternoon hours. The ridge will build and shift to the north
starting Thursday, causing trade winds to strengthen. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will likely occur across the typically
windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big
Island from Thursday through this weekend.

Small south and southeast swells are expected to produce below
typical summertime surf heights along south facing shores into
Friday. Forerunners from a new, long-period south swell are
expected to arrive late Friday night. This swell will likely
produce near to slightly above normal surf along south facing
shores from this weekend into early next week. Surf will remain
small along east facing shores during the next few days due to
weak trade winds. As trade winds strengthen later this week,
modest, choppy surf will return along east facing shores, lasting
from this weekend into early next week. Expect nearly flat
conditions to persist along north facing shores through tonight.
Small, short-period north-northwest swells starting Thursday may
provide a slight boost in surf heights along exposed north facing
shores through this weekend. Models show a slightly larger and
longer period northwest swell may arrive early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Powell

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office