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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 060203
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 PM HST Mon Dec 5 2016
A trough aloft west of Kauai will keep the atmosphere over the
islands unstable through at least the coming weekend. A weak ridge
will persist north of the area through Thursday and produce gentle
trade winds. The trades will be light enough to allow afternoon sea
breezes to develop and produce clouds and showers over interior
areas. Nighttime land breezes will produce partial clearing at
night. The trough aloft may deepen during the second half of the
week and bring an increase in clouds and showers.
A trough aloft west of Kauai has continued to weaken today, and a
1002 MB surface low 1230 miles north of the area continues moving
away to the northeast. A weak ridge will build north of the area
tonight and produce gentle trade winds over the islands. The winds
will remain light enough for daytime sea breezes and nighttime land
breezes to prevail through the weekend.
The trough west of the area will keep the atmosphere unstable enough
to allow locally heavy showers to develop during the afternoons and
evenings. The land breezes will bring partial clearing during the
late nights and early mornings. Southwest flow aloft on the east
side of the trough aloft will keep relative warm air moving over the
islands. The freezing level will remain rather high, so the chance
of significant snow and ice on the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna
Loa has decrease.
The trough aloft is forecast to weaken and shift north starting
Thursday night. As that happens, the atmosphere will become more
stable and showers will become less active.
VFR will prevail at terminals from Kauai to Molokai tonight, with
occasional MVFR on Maui and the Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration on the Big
Island. These conditions are expected to improve later tonight.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence between 150 and
FL350 from Maui southeastward. These conditions are expected to
improve later tonight.
AIRMET Zulu is in effect for icing around the Big Island. These
conditions are expected to improve from west to east tonight.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below the advisory thresholds
for the next several days. A series of northwest swells will
continue, but surf will remain well below the High Surf Advisory
Wind advisory through 600 AM Tuesday for the summits of Mauna Kea
and Mauna Loa.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office