| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 6.0 C |
| RH | | 46 % |
| Wind | | NNE 3 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 510 FXHW60 PHFO 180100 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 300 PM HST Wed Aug 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A stable and relatively dry trade wind pattern will return to the area on Thursday as trades slowly strengthen, becoming locally breezy by Thursday night or Friday morning and continuing through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms focused mainly over Oahu and the Big Island respectively will dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. As trades build back into the area from east to west, regional visible imagery indicates a modest band of moisture positioned immediately east of the Big Island at press time. This band will bring a slight uptick in showers over windward portions of Maui and the Big Island tonight, but will otherwise lift through the area with little fanfare. The next several days will then be characterized by a return to a typical trade wind pattern as subtropical ridging reestablishes upstream and subsequently strengthens the governing surface high over the northeast Pacific basin. A slow but steady strengthening of trade winds can be expected during the next 24-36 hours with locally breezy trades established by Thursday night or Friday morning. Departure of the resident upper low as it meanders westward combined with an influx of dry mid-level air evident on the latest CIMSS PWAT imagery will ensure trades remain on the drier side of normal into early next week. && .AVIATION... With a weak ridge north of the islands, trade winds will be light to moderate into Wednesday. This regime will result in localized sea breezes during the afternoon and early evening hours, and land breezes developing overnight. Most locales will be VFR, with only isolated MVFR possible in the afternoon hours in showers. The Big Island is the most likely area to see heavier showers, with a slight chance of thunderstorms, during the afternoon and early evening time frame. No AIRMETs are currently in effect. && .MARINE... A ridge persists north of the islands and will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early Thursday morning. Light winds will allow for development of local land and sea breezes. Terrain- induced wind acceleration may produce pockets of choppy sea conditions near some coasts during the afternoon hours. The ridge will build and shift to the north starting Thursday, causing trade winds to strengthen. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely occur across the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island from Thursday through this weekend. Small south and southeast swells are expected to produce below typical summertime surf heights along south facing shores into Friday. Forerunners from a new, long-period south swell are expected to arrive late Friday night. This swell will likely produce near to slightly above normal surf along south facing shores from this weekend into early next week. Surf will remain small along east facing shores during the next few days due to weak trade winds. As trade winds strengthen later this week, modest, choppy surf will return along east facing shores, lasting from this weekend into early next week. Expect nearly flat conditions to persist along north facing shores through tonight. Small, short-period north-northwest swells starting Thursday may provide a slight boost in surf heights along exposed north facing shores through this weekend. Models show a slightly larger and longer period northwest swell may arrive early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...TS MARINE...Powell Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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