| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 4.9 C |
| RH | | 18 % |
| Wind | | ENE 1 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 096 FXHW60 PHFO 261705 AAA AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 650 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES. && .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SHOWERS WINDWARD SIDES OF ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN MODERATE TRADE FLOW. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO REFLECT HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE FAVORED AREAS. STILL EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WINDWARD THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK NORTHEAST TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDWARD AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE HIGHER PW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE... THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6 FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY- LEVEL SURF HEIGHT'S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ UPDATE...BRENCHLEY PREV DISCUSSION...FOSTER Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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