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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

936
FXHW60 PHFO 301501 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS WEAKENED TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST AND A SERIES OF WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS...MOSTLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. LEEWARD AREAS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE KONA
SLOPES. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MUGGY WEATHER AND POSSIBLE
INCREASED SHOWERS FOR THE WINDWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE MORE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WINDWARD WATERS OF THE ISLANDS AT TIME...THOUGH
LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE RATHER SPARSE.
EARLY MORNING HILO SOUNDING CONTINUES TO BE MORE STABLE...THOUGH
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO OVER EIGHT THOUSAND
FEET...WHILE LIHUE SOUNDING IS DRIER BUT SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES PASSING
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RESULT IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WIND WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
WINDS REACHING THE STATE AT TIMES...AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS...WHILE LEE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS.

LATEST BULLETIN ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E FROM NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER / NHC / HAS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED BY FRIDAY MORNING
AFTER CROSSING INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING SOMEWHAT TO THE OTHER ISLANDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HUMID WEATHER TO
RETURN TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS POSSIBLE INCREASED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS TROPICAL
STORM GUILLERMO FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE AND MOVE WEST OF 140W INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM. SEE BULLETINS ISSUED BY NHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. MOSTLY VFR COND WILL PREVAIL
TODAY FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR COND TO SOME WINDWARD AREAS AND EVEN AIRMET FOR MTN
OBSC. ALSO...TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER ALONG THE
LEE AREAS...THE FIRE DANGER HAS HEIGHTENED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY.
BELIEVE THE CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WINDY WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOME AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IF THE TRADE WINDS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH.

NO MAJOR SWELLS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG ALL SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

HUI




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office