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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

337
FXHW60 PHFO 170630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA DEVELOPS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA AND KEEPING A TRADEWIND
WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN THE MEANTIME...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA...WHICH MAY KEEP ENHANCING THE TRADE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA
MIGRATES E AND WEAKENS. THUS...TRADE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THEN...AN EVEN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BUILD BEHIND
THE CURRENT ONE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES N OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
WILL BRING BACK INCREASING TRADES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND WHERE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS
ONSHORE DEVELOPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM SFC TO ABOUT 15K WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24
HOURS AND BEYOND. WILL BE KEEPING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURB
IN EFFECT INDEFINITELY.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS LEEWARD PORTIONS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS ARE ISOLATED...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING ALONG THE NE
SLOPES AND COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

A SMALL SWELL FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL PEAK THURSDAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...RYSHKO







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