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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

780
FXHW60 PHFO 220142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 200 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST
OF KAUAI AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SATELLITE CLOUD MOTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG ISLAND IS PARTLY
BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUD DID POP UP OVER
THE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
WAS RECORDED THROUGH 200 PM.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS
ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THAN TODAY
SINCE THE REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH THERE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS LATER TONIGHT. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. ONLY SMALL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY LONGER...BUT
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office