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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

757
FXHW60 PHFO 191330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MAUKA
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
37N138W THROUGH 30N160W AND 29N180W...600 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FRONT DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 150W AND 170W WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS...PUTTING A BIG DENT IN THE RIDGE AND KEEPING LOCAL TRADE
WINDS LIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SLUGGISH 10 MPH EAST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS MAUKA AREAS OF
THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THIS LIGHT FLOW IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT A CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH. WE EXPECT LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST LEEWARD
AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES AS THE TRADES FILTER IN.
RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD COME MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD
IN.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY GENTLE SEA
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...TOMORROW...AND BEYOND. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL CONVECTION. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN PASSING SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT-
PERIOD 2-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SMALL NW SWELL IS DUE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRADE WINDS
PICKING UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...BEDAL








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