Current Conditions
Temp5.1 C
RH9 %
WindWNW 14 mph
RoadOpen
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

553
FXHW60 PHFO 280652
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT TRADE
WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS...FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME
CLEARING. TRADE WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY STABLE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...AS
REVEALED BY AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE...RADAR DATA
INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE. EXPECT
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS COMING...AS THE HIGH FAR NORTH WEAKENS
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC PASSES NORTH OF
THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP DURING NIGHTS AND DAYS.
A MORE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE STATE WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS UNDER THE CONVERGING SEA BREEZES WHILE SOME CLEARING
WILL OCCUR OVER THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT UNDER THE DIVERGING LAND
BREEZES. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STABLE IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY AS THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...THUS
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP.

THIS CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY AT LEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS HINT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN TO THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ACTUALLY BE. THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE KONA AND
KAU SLOPES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING DUE TO LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS.

NO AIRMET IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ABNORMALLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EAST FACING SHORES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE
SURF HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...LONG PERIOD
SWELL ENERGY FROM THE EAST IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL...AND MAY LEAD TO
NORMALLY SHELTERED WINDWARD LOCALES SEEING LARGER LONG PERIOD WAVES
AND STRONG CURRENTS.

ALSO...A MODERATE SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...AND BUILD
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP IN SOME
AREAS DUE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SWELLS. THE SURF FROM
BOTH SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER...NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE COULD BRING CONFUSED
SEAS FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO BOTH SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE
COAST-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.


&&

$$

HUI



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office