| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 9.1 C |
| RH | | 63 % |
| Wind | | NNE 28 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 830 FXHW60 PHFO 192021 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1021 AM HST Tue Jun 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A gentle trade wind pattern will continue through Wednesday with afternoon leeward sea breezes. Some volcanic emissions will spread over the smaller islands Wednesday into Thursday. Building high pressure will increase trade winds Thursday afternoon, and push any emissions south of the smaller islands. Trade winds will become breezy Friday and continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... An old frontal boundary has sagged far enough south to bring cloudy skies to Kauai this morning, and some of those clouds may reach Oahu's North Shore this afternoon and tonight. The boundary is expected to move west and dissipate late tonight. Very limited rainfall is expected through Wednesday as the atmosphere remains dry and stable. The surface ridge that has been persistently positioned about 200 miles north of Kauai will remain for another day or so, bringing light trade winds to windward areas, and afternoon seas breezes and nighttime land breezes to leeward locations. Volcanic emissions will spread north along the windward Big Island coast Wednesday into Thursday as winds just above the surface shift from the ESE. This will allow some of those emissions to reach Maui County and Oahu. Thursday, trade winds will be on the rise as high pressure builds in from the NW and the surface ridge slowly retreats to the N. Showers will focus over windward and mountain areas with an occasional shower reaching leeward locations. Trade winds will be breezy Friday and through the weekend as a 1035 mb high pressure system takes firm control of the weather pattern in the central Pacific. Aloft, global models are indicating a weak upper low will drift close to Hawaii from the east and weaken our trade wind inversion. This would allow for increasing cloud tops and the potential for an increase in showers Sunday and into next week. && .AVIATION... Light trade winds and mainly dry weather will continue across the state today. Expect mainly VFR conditions again today through Wednesday. There is a slight chance for MVFR condition in three areas; the windward slopes with showers and clouds, areas of Kauai and Oahu affected by the boundary dipping south, and those areas on the Big Island due to volcanic emissions. No AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated through this afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light through midweek as a weak front north of the area moves south slowly and dissipates. Land and sea breezes conditions will develop near shore through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trades are forecast to return through the second half of the week as a high builds far northeast of the area. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Thursday for winds reaching 25 knots in the windy areas around the Big Island and Maui. Surf will remain small through midweek with no significant swells anticipated. Surf will build along east facing shores as trade winds strengthen later in the week and through the upcoming weekend. Overlapping swells from a storm southeast of New Zealand may reach the area early next week. We will get a better idea of the size of this swell later in the week as the swell reaches the buoy near American Samoa. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morrison AVIATION...Chevalier MARINE...Donaldson Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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