| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.8 C |
| RH | | 5 % |
| Wind | | ESE 28 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 337 FXHW60 PHFO 170630 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA DEVELOPS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .DISCUSSION... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE AREA AND KEEPING A TRADEWIND WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN THE MEANTIME...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY KEEP ENHANCING THE TRADE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA MIGRATES E AND WEAKENS. THUS...TRADE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN...AN EVEN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BUILD BEHIND THE CURRENT ONE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES N OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING TRADES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ONSHORE DEVELOPS EACH DAY. && .AVIATION... MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM SFC TO ABOUT 15K WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WILL BE KEEPING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURB IN EFFECT INDEFINITELY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS ARE ISOLATED...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING ALONG THE NE SLOPES AND COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL PEAK THURSDAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES AVIATION...RYSHKO Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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