| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 3.3 C |
| RH | | 16 % |
| Wind | | E 21 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 164 FXHW60 PHFO 240630 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE FAR NNE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON THU WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DRIER...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE STABLE. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW THAT THE INVERSIONS ARE RE-ESTABLISHING AROUND 6-8 THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A BAND OF LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW AND SHOULD BEGIN GENERATING MORE SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST MIMIC/GLOBAL MODEL MOISTURE ANALYSES DEPICT A DRIER AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME FOR THE SEASON...DOMINATED BY WINDWARD SHOWERS FAVORING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN BY LATE SAT AND INTO SUN MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW MOVING S OF THE ISLANDS AND BRINGING A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TRADES. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE LOW LVLS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO DEPICTING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE E SOMETIME ON TUE. AND ALTHOUGH IS TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A DEFINITE SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH THE FORECAST BEING ADJUSTED AS NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. && .AVIATION... ISLAND TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING VFR. PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY CARRY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MODERATE AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI DUE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA SPEEDS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE/S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL S OF THE ISLANDS KEEPS THE LOCAL GRADIENT TIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SMALL LONG-PERIOD BACKGROUND SWELL FROM THE SSW AND SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SE REPRESENT THE SWELL SOURCES FROM THE S HEMISPHERE... WHILE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES FROM THE E REPRESENT THE ONLY SOURCE OF SWELL FROM THE N HEMISPHERE. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ HAS BEEN UPDATED AND CONTAINS DETAILS THAN CAN BE LOOSELY APPLIED STATEWIDE. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES AVIATION...WROE Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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