| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 0.1 C |
| RH | | 73 % |
| Wind | | SW 5 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 206 FXHW60 PHFO 140614 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 814 PM HST Mon Aug 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to breezy trade winds associated with high pressure to the northeast will begin to weaken Tuesday through the second half of the week. Dry and stable conditions are expected to remain in place through midweek, which should keep the rainfall light. Lighter winds along with increasing moisture expected by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend may translate to increasing shower coverage over the islands. && .DISCUSSION... Short-term (through Tuesday night) guidance remains in decent agreement and is initializing well with the current pattern and trends. Consensus supports mostly stable and dry conditions with moderate trades beginning to trend down in response to high pressure weakening. The heavy showers and thunderstorms that managed to develop over the leeward slopes of the Big Island this afternoon for the second consecutive day have begun to diminish this evening. This development was in response to a sufficient amount of heating, moisture and the presence of a weak upper trough over the region. Radar estimated peak accumulations ranging from 1-2 inches just up the slope from Puuanahulu. The nearest gage reported a little over a quarter of an inch in the past hour (Puu Waawaa). Although a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out again Tuesday afternoon, forecast confidence remains too low at this point to include thunderstorms in the official package. Elsewhere, benign conditions are anticipated through Tuesday night with light to moderate trades. The extended (Wednesday through the weekend) guidance remains in decent agreement and supports light trades holding over the state, likely allowing afternoon sea breezes to develop over leeward locations. This combined with a large area of higher moisture projected to approach and begin to fill in across the islands from the east Friday into the weekend may lead to better shower coverage. Lighter winds over the state will also support VOG becoming more widespread over the Big Island and potentially spreading to the smaller islands. && .AVIATION... Trade winds will weaken a bit tomorrow and hold at light to moderate speeds through much of the week. A fairly dry and stable atmosphere will help keep VFR conditions across the islands tonight and tomorrow. Any clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with only very localized areas of MVFR expected. No AIRMETS are expected through the period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging north of the area will weaken as it drifts south over the next few days, gradually weakening the trade winds across the coastal waters. Light to moderate trades will then prevail through the remainder of the week and over the upcoming weekend as high pressure remains far northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The current south swell is expected to fade out through tonight, and surf will remain small through rest of the week. Surf along east facing shores will gradually decline as the trade winds weaken. No significant swells are expected through the week. See the latest Oahu Surf Discussion (SRDHFO) for more details on surf and swell. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gibbs AVIATION...Powell MARINE...Kinel Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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