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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
829 PM HST TUE JUL 26 2016
High pressure building north of the state will keep a moderate to
breezy trade wind flow in place through the week. Relatively dry
and stable trade wind weather will prevail through Friday, with a
more showery trade wind pattern expected this weekend into early
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1800
miles to the northeast of Honolulu, driving the moderate to breezy
trade winds across the Aloha state. Infrared satellite imagery
shows partly cloudy skies in place across most of the island
chain, with some areas experiencing more cloud cover, particularly
in windward areas and leeward sections of the Big Island.
Meanwhile, radar imagery shows very little shower activity across
the area. Main short term concern for the next several days
revolves around rain chances.
Tonight through Friday...
High pressure will strengthen to the north of the island chain,
and this will keep a breezy trade wind flow in place through the
remainder of the work week. Inversion heights will remain low
with precipitable water values near to below climatological norms
through the period. As a result, the amount of trade wind shower
activity will remain suppressed, with clouds and light showers
focused primarily over windward and mauka areas. Although
temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, the
breezy trades and comfortable humidity levels will result in a
very pleasant stretch of mid summer weather.
Friday night through next Tuesday...
Model solutions are in good agreement showing high pressure
remaining nearly stationary to the north of the state through the
period, keeping a moderate to breezy trade wind flow in place.
Guidance also shows lowering upper level heights and increasing
moisture, the remnants of Georgette, getting caught up within the
trade wind flow over the weekend. As a result, we should see a
more active and showery trade wind pattern this weekend, with a
more typical trade wind regime returning for early next week.
Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas
through the period.
Trade winds have returned to the islands this evening, with a dry
and stable airmass in place. VFR conditions will prevail overnight
and Wednesday, with areas of low clouds and isolated MVFR
ceilings over windward areas.
AIRMET TANGO for moderate low level turbulence has been posted for
the mountain terrain and immediate downwind areas of the Big
Island and Maui. This AIRMET may need to be expanded to cover the
other islands on Wednesday as trade winds strengthen over the
As high pressure builds to the north of the state, trade winds
will increase across the area. A Small Craft Advisory is currently
posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and The
Big Island. Winds may increase enough to cause Small Craft
Advisory conditions elsewhere later in the week.
The strengthening trade winds will cause an increase in short
period choppy surf along east facing shores. Surf heights are
expected to remain below advisory levels. There will also be a
series of small southerly swells through the week and into the
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-
Big Island Southeast Waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office