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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

009
FXHW60 PHFO 110132
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...BUT DRY
AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...DELIVERING CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING GUSTY
TRADE WINDS...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A WET TRADE WIND FLOW FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN TO OVERCAST BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS JUST N OF KAUAI
MARKS THE REMNANTS OF A STALLING AND DISSIPATING FRONT...WHILE AN E-
W ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING ISLAND WINDS
LIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OVER SURROUNDING WATERS. THE LIGHT LARGE-
SCALE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE CLOUD FORMATION OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS AND LOWER SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS HAVE
NOT BEEN OBSERVED DUE TO THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS THAT HAS
PERSISTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS PAST WEEKEND/S FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE CELL WILL PASS N OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND MOVE STEADILY
E THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SETTLING IN FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE RIDGE TEMPORARILY MOVING N
OF THE ISLANDS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
IN RESPONSE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WEAKEN THE W END
OF THE RIDGE...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THIS EFFECT FIRST BEING FELT ON KAUAI.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY WARMS AND MOISTENS. ALTHOUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE CHILLY BY ISLAND STANDARDS...
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER WILL BE STEADILY RECOVERING FROM THE RECENT
CHILL.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NE TRADE
WIND SPEEDS. AS THE HIGH TRACKS E...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW...BRINGING A FAIRLY WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE THAT THE E-W ORIENTED MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OAHU TUESDAY NIGHT... AND MAUI
COUNTY AND HAWAII WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FUELING NUMEROUS
TRADE WIND SHOWERS. WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT THERE HAVE BEEN RUN-TO-
RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE MOISTURE AXIS...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT IN
THE FACT THAT STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PUNCTUATE THE ISLAND WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ALONG INTERIOR AREAS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE STATE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KAUAI
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DIPS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THERE ARE NO AIRMETS
IN EFFECT...AND NONE ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A MUCH ANTICIPATED LARGE NNW SWELL IS PRODUCING DANGEROUSLY LARGE
SURF THIS AFTERNOON ALONG EXPOSED N AND W FACING SHORES. ALTHOUGH
THE SWELL ARRIVED LATER THAN EXPECTED...IT IS NOW ABOUT AS BIG AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND POWERFUL SURF IS POUNDING ISLAND
SHORELINES. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE REFERENCED FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING
THIS SWELL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
LATE FRIDAY. A WNW SWELL EXPECTED SUNDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF
REACHING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST N AND W FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE W COMPONENT OF
THIS SWELL MAY ALSO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE W FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE NNW SWELL. THE STRENGTHENING TRADES MAY CAUSE WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO THE SCA CRITERIA IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON