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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 100309
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
509 PM HST Fri Dec 9 2016
Light snow is falling over The Big Island Summits, thus a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued. Up to 2 inches of snow
accumulation is expected overnight.
Unsettled weather can be expected over the next few days as a
trough of low pressure lies just west of the area. Winds will
remain light with showers generally on the light side. Some
improvement is expected early next week as the trough moves to the
east of the area. Another trough is forecast to approach the area
during the second half of next week with another round of
unsettled weather possible.
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 336 PM HST FRI/
A broad upper level trough is centered a few hundred miles west
of the state while a weak surface trough is located just west of
Kauai. A broad swath of multi layered clouds is seen in satellite
imagery and is causing skies to be rather cloudy over the state.
Radar imagery shows some showers over the area. Periods of
unsettled weather can be expected through the weekend but most of
the showers will be on the lighter side. Winds are expected to
remain light through the weekend.
The trough axis, both at the surface and aloft, is forecast to
drift east over the next few days. This will shift the clouds and
showers to the east as well but will likely linger over or near
The Big Island early next week. Light northerly flow will fill in
behind the trough, though wind speeds will be light enough to
allow for some sea and land breeze circulations. Drier weather
will spread from west to east early next week.
As we head in to the second half of next week, another trough of
low pressure is forecast to drop down to a position just west of
the area with an associated surface low developing as well. This
will shift our wind flow to the south and draw up some deep
tropical moisture. The result will be a cloudy and wetter weather
pattern setting up with the finer details being refined as we get
closer to the event.
Overcast layered clouds with scattered light to moderate showers
prevail across the state this afternoon. Cloud bases have become a
little bit higher through the day, so AIRMET Sierra for tempo
mountain obscurations has been cancelled for Maui County and the
Big Island for the time being. It is likely the bases of these
layered clouds will lower tonight with the expectation that AIRMET
Sierra may be issued again.
AIRMET TANGO is in effect for upper level turbulence due to
strong jet stream winds. AIRMET ZULU is in effect for moderate
icing between 140 and FL210. These AIRMETS are expected to
continue at least through tonight with possibly some improvement
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the weekend and on into the middle of next week.
There will be a series of small north and northwest swells through
the weekend. A slightly larger northwest swell is expected to
arrive Sunday night, peak late Monday and Monday night, then
gradually lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf heights are expected
to remain below advisory levels. A short period north northeast
swell arriving on Tuesday and lingering through Thursday may
produce advisory level surf along east facing shores.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office