| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -2.0 C |
| RH | | 97 % |
| Wind | | W 47 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 533 FXHW60 PHFO 200130 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST SUN MAY 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTH WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI THIS EVENING...AND TO OAHU LATER TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR MAUI THROUGH MID-WEEK...PRODUCING PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ON THE BIG ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...TRADE WINDS WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS COMPLEX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST NEAR MAUI. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER KAUAI AT 300 PM IS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS OF THE ISLANDS AT 300 PM AND RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLAND REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BECAUSE OF THE LOW ALOFT BUT LESS UNSTABLE THAN IT HAS BEEN. BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM 200 PM SHOWED A LIFTED INDEX OF 1.5 AT LIHUE AND -1.7 AT HILO. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST... WITH 1.48 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT LIHUE AND 1.56 INCHES AT HILO. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NOW THAT THE SUN IS SINKING. THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO OAHU TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR MOLOKAI MONDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO THE SHOWERS ON KAUAI AND OAHU WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NORTH-FACING SLOPES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK ALLOWING DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH SHOWERS CONCENTRATED OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND PARTLY CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TRADE WINDS BECOMING WELL-ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL END AND THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. && .AVIATION... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED +SHRA FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO OAHU WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE PARTLY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING SO THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER DARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE N SIDE OF KAUAI THIS EVENING AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO OAHU LATER TONIGHT. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS STATEWIDE THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF SWELLS WILL KEEP ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH SHORES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED FOR WAVES BREAKING NEAR CHANNEL ENTRANCES AND POSSIBLE HARBOR SURGES. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS. && $$ DONALDSON Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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