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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

352
FXHW60 PHFO 040630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY BECOME MODERATE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING EVEN STRONGER TRADES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT TRADES...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS MIGRATING
N. THE BACKGROUND FLOW IS NOW BECOMING STRONGER AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AS LATEST GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW. BUT
DESPITE THE RETURNING TRADES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAT AFTERNOON.

LATEST SOUNDING AND MIMIC DATA STILL DEPICT A RATHER DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE JUST S/SE OF
THE BIG ISLAND. THUS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN LIMITED
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.

MODELS DEPICT REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE TRADES INTO AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FAR SE OF THE ALOHA
STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TRACK-WISE...THE MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME DEEPER...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ABOUT 1200 MILES E/SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N
AND THE PASSING LOWS TO THE S.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IS MONITORING A COUPLE OF
AREAS OVER THE E PACIFIC...THE STRONGER LOCATED ABOUT 2300 MILES
E/SE OF HILO...WHICH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A PARTICULAR MODEL
SOLUTION...THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A NEARBY SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY N. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND AIRMETS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. LEEWARD AREAS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHILE TRADE WINDS
DELIVER ISOL -SHRA TO WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VIS/CIG POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...TRADES MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LEEWARD CLOUDS AND ISOL SHRA TO DEVELOP ON KAUAI AND OAHU. THE KONA
SLOPES WILL HAVE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG IN
SHRA...WHILE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED AT PHNY FROM 20Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO OTHER
AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...
AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD BRING SURF ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND
THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BIRCHARD



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office