Current Conditions | ||
Temp | ![]() | 2.2 C |
RH | ![]() | 98 % |
Wind | ![]() | WNW 0 mph |
Road | ![]() | Closed |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 582 FXHW60 PHFO 210123 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 323 PM HST Fri May 20 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Building trades will become locally breezy this weekend and bring a return to normal humidity levels and a typical distribution of clouds and showers focused over windward areas. && .DISCUSSION... A deep, moist airmass remains entrenched over the western half of the state where CIMSS PWAT analysis indicates PWATs near or in excess of 2 inches from Molokai to Kauai. While locally heavy showers have been observed at times through the day, a greater coverage of heavy showers has been limited by the abundance of low and mid-level clouds stagnating over Oahu and Kauai. Meanwhile, thunderstorms over upslope portions of interior Big Island will diminish with the loss of heating this evening. As broad mid-level ridging strengthens to 593dm at 500mb off the southern California coast during the weekend, high pressure will establish upstream resulting in a gradual return to typical trade wind weather. An ESE flavor of trades continues over the eastern end of the state continues through tonight, turning increasingly easterly and locally breezy during the latter half of the weekend. Returning trades will usher the humid airmass westward which will begin taking the edge off the humidity over Oahu on Saturday and Kauai by Sunday. In the meantime, the lingering moist airmass may support another round of interior showers over portions of Kauai on Saturday afternoon. Locally breezy, and stable trades return Sunday and continue into next week. && .AVIATION... A nearly stationary remnant frontal boundary lies over the west end of the island chain. Clouds and showers associated with this boundary is producing occasional MVFR conditions with isolated IFR conditions occurring in a few moderate to heavy showers as well. Daytime heating has also allowed for isolated thunderstorms to form over the slopes of Mauna Loa. Expect shower activity to diminish overall across the area overnight. No AIRMET's are currently in effect but lingering moisture around Kauai and Oahu may cause the issuance of one. A drier and more stable airmass will begin to fill in from the east later tonight and early Saturday. && .MARINE... A stalled front near Kauai will continue to weaken and drift northward. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight and Saturday, with easterly trade winds strengthening from east to west through the weekend. SCA conditions will likely return to the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island Saturday night. Typical trade wind weather with more stable conditions will continue into the middle of next week. Surf heights along south facing shores will remain elevated into next week, as the current south swell becomes reinforced by additional long-period south swells arriving on Saturday, Monday and next Thursday, fluctuating slightly between swells. In the long range, models continue to show quite a bit of activity in the southern hemisphere, which could translate to additional south shore surf events lasting into early June. Surf along north and west facing shores will slowly decline as medium-period northwest (300-320 degrees) swell energy diminishes over the next couple of days. A return to nearly flat summer conditions is expected Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Burke MARINE...TS Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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