• Home
• MK Forecast
• Trends
• Statistics

• Current Conditions
• Seeing
• Web Cams
• Interactive Map
• Road Conditions
• NWS Bulletins

• Satellite
• Geostationary
• Polar Orbiter

• Radar
• Models
• GFS
• WRF

• Archive
• Links
• Symposium on Seeing
• Glossary
• Feedback
• Disclaimer

Affiliations

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Hawaiian Islands Short Term Forecast Hawaiian Islands 7-day Zone Forecast Hydrologic Outlook Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Statement Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement Severe Thunderstorm Warning Special Weather Statement Winter Storm Warnings/Watches/Advisories Urgent Weather Message Marine Weather Statement/High Surf Advisory/Warning Special Marine Warning Radar Message Special Messages Unknown Terminal Aerodome Foreasts (TAFS) Area Forecast for Hawaii and Adjacent Coastal Waters Upper-level Winds and Temperature Forecast for the 4 Major Hawaii AP AIRMETs for IFR Conditions, Turbulence, and Icing Thunderstorm SIGMETs Hawaiian Islands Satellite Interpetation Message Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Summary Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary Tropical Cyclone SIGMETs Buoy Winds and Wave Forecast Oahu Surf Observation and Forecast/Coastal Forecast for Hawaiian Waters Offshore Forecast for Hawaiian Waters North Pacific High Seas Forecast South Pacific High Seas Forecast Hawaiian Islands Automated Surface Observation System Hourly Weather Roundup Hawaiian Islands Wind Data Hawaiian Islands Rainfall Summary Hawaii Temperature and Precipitation Summary Daily Hawaii Cooperative Observations Honolulu AP Climate Summary Lihue AP Climate Summary Kahului AP Climate Summary Hilo AP Climate Summary Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion West Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special

Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 869 FXHW60 PHFO 250623 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 823 PM HST Fri Jan 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will dissipate over Kauai and Niihau through Saturday with lingering clouds and showers around both islands. Trade winds are back and forecast to increase into the moderate range tonight and last through the weekend. On Sunday, trade winds will veer towards the southeast direction over the western islands and the cloudy remnants of the front near Kauai will drift northward away from the state. A stable light wind pattern will return from Monday into Tuesday with trade winds transitioning back to a dry land and sea breeze pattern. Another cold front approaches the western islands next Friday with wet weather trends forecast into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The satellite picture this evening shows long low level cloud bands draped across the western and eastern ends of the state. Out west a cloud band over Kauai and Niihau is associated with a dissipating cold front that has stalled over both islands. Back east another low level cloud band lingers over the Big Island caused by surface wind convergence. Both cloud bands will increase cloud cover and produce a slight increase in shower activity for each island. Otherwise a moderate trade wind flow will favor isolated to scattered windward and mountain showers for all islands this weekend. Monday through Thursday...A large scale low pressure trough settling in over the Central Pacific basin will weaken the high pressure ridge north of the islands. Trade winds will transition to light winds from Monday into Tuesday with local scale land and sea breezes developing over each island. A fairly stable atmosphere and background light southeasterly winds will keep rainfall to a minimum through Thursday. Friday into next weekend...Long range guidance continues to show another cold front approaching the islands from the northwest. Timing and intensity details remain a bit fuzzy this far out in the forecast time period. However, the best chances for increasing clouds and showers will develop over the western islands with these higher precipitation trends reflected in our latest weather grids. Current American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) suggest a brief period of showers mainly affecting Kauai County. Due to run to run model differences on the movement of this frontal band our confidence in wind and weather solutions remains only fair at this time. Expect changes to our forecast grids in the extended range as this part of the forecast will likely evolve over time. && .AVIATION... A weak front will continue to slide slowly southeast over the islands and dissipate during the next 24 hours. This feature will allow light to occasionally moderate trade winds to return across the region. Thus, isolated to scattered showers are expected to gradually increase in coverage along the windward coasts and slopes... especially for Kauai, Maui, and the Big Island. && .MARINE... A dissipating front will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Kauai waters tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build north of the area behind the front, and will bring a brief return of moderate to locally strong winds tonight through Saturday night. Another front will approach and stall out to the west of the islands early next week, diminishing the winds over the western islands while moderate to locally strong east- southeasterly winds hang on in the unsheltered areas around Maui and the Big Island. Another front approaching from the northwest during the middle and latter part of next week, will diminish winds further, with light and variable winds prevailing across most of the island chain. Seas are expected to rise to SCA levels across most of the marine area late tonight and Saturday as a new large northwest swell arrives. Trade winds will also strengthen briefly to SCA levels across the Alenuihaha Channel Saturday and Saturday night. SCAs remain in effect for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay for the Saturday and Saturday night periods, due to a combination of winds and seas. Some marine zones will likely hold on to SCA level seas Sunday into early next week. Surf will keep pumping along north and west facing shores as a progressive weather pattern across the northern Pacific keeps a series of large northwest swells moving through the islands. The next northwest swell will fill in late tonight and build through the day Saturday with surf peaking above warning levels late Saturday into Saturday night. This swell will be on a downward trend Sunday, but is expected to hold at warning levels during the day before dropping to advisory levels Sunday night. As this swell eases early next week, advisory level surf may hold through Monday before dropping below HSA thresholds Monday night and Tuesday. Over the Big Island, this swell will likely bring advisory level surf to exposed west facing shores late Saturday through Sunday. Another large northwest swell will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week. Surf along exposed east facing shores will remain small through the period due to the lack of persistent trades locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through next week. A couple background south swells expected over the weekend and again on Tuesday should be enough to keep things from going flat. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley- Windward Haleakala. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters- Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel- Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...JT MARINE...Jelsema Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

Home | Forecast | Current OBS | Satellite | Radar | Models | Archive | Links | Disclaimer

This page was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman