| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.3 C |
| RH | | 100 % |
| Wind | | SSE 32 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 530 FXHW60 PHFO 180213 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 413 PM HST Fri Jan 17 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building north of the state will bring a breezy and dry trade wind pattern over the weekend. Some showers will continue to impact windward and mauka areas especially around Maui County and the Big Island from time to time, but they should remain light in intensity. Overall, a much drier weather pattern is expected through the first half of next week with trade winds decreasing on Tuesday and possibly becoming variable by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... A cold front has made its way through the state today and is dissipating northeast of the Big Island. A much drier airmass has moved in across the western half of the state and the 00Z sounding from Lihue came in with precipitable water values of 0.62 inches. This is well below normal and any showers overnight tonight should be more like a drizzle over Kauai. As we shift further east, lingering moisture from the remnants of the front continues to produce scattered showers across windward and mauka locations from Oahu to the Big Island this afternoon. Looking upstream on satellite, a train of light to moderate showers is located upstream of Maui County and the Big Island. So for tonight, scattered showers will likely impact these areas and may cause some minor ponding and rises in streams across windward and mauka areas. Over the weekend, high pressure will continue to build north of the state and will lead to a breezy and dry trade wind pattern across most of the state. Lingering moisture from the front will continue to bring showers from time to time over windward and mauka areas especially around Maui County and the Big Island. Dewpoint temperatures will be down in the low 60s and may make the air feel slightly cooler than normal. In the long term, a ridge of high pressure will persist north of the state through Monday and gradually shift southeast and towards the state Tuesday into Wednesday. This will lead to the trade winds weakening with possible sea breezes developing by Tuesday afternoon across select areas. Precipitable water values will remain drier than normal next week, which should keep the showers on the lighter side. && .AVIATION... A front will weaken near the Big Island tonight, while breezy north northeast winds will continue across the rest of the state. AIRMET Tango is posted for moderate turbulence for leeward Kauai, Oahu and Molokai due to the stronger winds and a stable atmosphere. AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations across windward and northern sections of the islands this afternoon. AIRMET Sierra will likely end later on tonight for the smaller islands, but continue across windward Big Island. VFR conditions will prevail across leeward sides of the islands. && .MARINE... High pressure north of area is producing strong breezy north to northeasterly winds over the Hawaiian Islands. High Surf Advisory has been issued for Niihau and Kauai through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has also been issued for most areas. Saturday through Monday, winds will hold in the fresh to locally strong category while gradually shifting out of a more easterly trade wind direction. Light and variable winds will become a possibility Tuesday through the second half of next week as a progressive pattern across the northern Pacific continues and a couple of fronts pass to the north. Expect rough conditions along exposed north shores due to short wave periods (10-11s) and strong onshore winds. Kauai north shore is seeing the highest surf height of 8 to 15 ft thus a High Surf Advisory was issued through tonight. A long period north to northwest swell expected Sunday will likely drive surf heights up to advisory levels for north and west facing shores. This will hold through Monday before lowering Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will remain small due to the lack of strong trades locally and upstream. However, easterly locations with a northerly exposure may trend up tonight through the weekend as the strong northerly winds and northerly swell persist. For the extended, guidance shows a pattern shift across the northern Pacific featuring two gale to storm force systems racing eastward from Japan to the Date Line over the weekend and again early next week. If this materializes, advisory level surf can be anticipated by Wednesday through the second half of the week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through early next week with mainly small background southwest swells expected. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino/Powell AVIATION...Foster MARINE...Almanza/Morrison Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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