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Temp2.5 C
RH66 %
WindNNE 7 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 191939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
939 AM HST Thu Apr 19 2018

Showery weather and abundant cloud cover will remain in place
through Friday, particularly over windward areas. Some showers
will be heavy at times with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms. A more typical trade wind pattern will return
Friday night with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. High
pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to breezy
trade winds through the weekend, before strengthening to locally
windy levels next week.


Healthy trade winds and atmospheric instability will bring wet
weather to areas of the state through Friday with a focus over
windward and mountain locations. A upper level trough moving
in from the NW will bring increasing instability, while an old
frontal boundary riding the trades will push in enhanced low level
moisture from the east. The expected wet weather, along with the
copious amounts of rain in the recent past, have prompted a flash
flood watch through Friday afternoon. Mostly cloudy to overcast
conditions will prevail across the state, with an extensive
shield of mid and high cloud currently extending well southwest
of the island chain. These layered mid and high clouds will push
east through today bringing increasing chances of winter weather
at the Big Island summits. A winter storm warning is in effect
through Friday afternoon with up to a foot of snow expected above
the 12 thousand foot elevation.

Current radar and observations show moderate showers moving across
the windward waters, pushing into the windward slopes. High
resolution models are keying off the increasing low level moisture
and instability, and show a steady increase in enhanced showers
this afternoon and evening. Expect showers to favor windward and
mountains areas through the night but leeward locations will see
their fare share of rainfall. The upper level trough will push
from west to east tonight across the islands allowing for some
isolated thunderstorms to form along with locally heavy rainfall.
Areas such as the North Shore of Kauai and East Oahu will be more
susceptible to flash flooding with the recent record rainfalls.

By Friday morning, the threat for heavy rain will focus over the
eastern half of the state with the upper trough over Maui County
and the Big Island. Kauai and Oahu will likely see some clearing
during the morning hours with more normal trade wind weather
returning. By Friday evening, some lingering enhanced showers
will remain over windward Maui and the Big Island, but drier air
from the east and increasing atmospheric instability will
gradually decrease shower intensity and coverage.

A surface ridge to the north will maintain moderate to locally
breezy trade winds Friday night through the weekend. High pressure
will strengthen Monday bringing trades to locally windy levels
through Wednesday. Overall, a fairly typical trade wind pattern
is expected through the period, with bands of enhanced clouds and
showers drifting through the islands from time to time. Showers
will focus over windward and mauka areas with some showers riding
the strong trades to leeward locations.


Moderate trade winds will continue across the Hawaiian Islands
producing moderate low level mechanical turbulence over and
downstream of mountains for the next 24 hours. Low cloud ceilings
and showers will linger over mountain areas of all islands.

A band of unstable clouds and showers will enhance shower
activity across all islands with MVFR ceilings along windward
slopes producing widespread mountain obscurations.

In addition to low level impacts previously described, also
expecting some upper level moderate turbulence due to the jet
stream between FL280 and FL400. Also there is a chance of
thunderstorms continuing over Hawaii today and tonight bringing
the potential for icing and convective turbulence in some spots.


A nearby upper-level trough moving over the area will produce
unstable weather in the form of locally heavy downpours and a
chance of thunderstorms through Friday. Gusty winds are also
possible near any thunderstorms.

Otherwise a surface ridge far north of the area will maintain
locally strong trade winds today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for areas near Maui County and the Big Island
today. The SCA scales back to just the typically windier areas
today as a front north of the area disrupts the trade wind flow.
Its likely that SCA conditions will continue into the weekend for
these windier locations.

Surf is expected to remain below High Surf Advisory (HSA)
thresholds along all shorelines through this weekend. Rough,
moderate surf is expected to persist along most east facing shores
through Sunday night due to the trade wind swell. Surf heights
will increase again along east facing shores early next week as
trade winds increase. Surf may reach the HSA threshold along east
facing shores starting late Monday, and persist into the middle
of next week.

A moderate northwest swell arriving later today is expected to
peak Friday, and then gradually subside this weekend. A slightly
larger northwest swell is expected to spread down the island
chain late Sunday, peaking Monday. This swell will gradually
subside from Tuesday through Wednesday.

A series of small swells from the southern hemisphere will
maintain modest surf along most south facing shores across the
island chain through this weekend.

See the latest Oahu Surf Discussion (SRDHFO) for additional
details on surf and swell.


Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Niihau-Kauai-Oahu-
Molokai-Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui-Kona-South Big Island-Big Island
North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for Big Island

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.



M Ballard...Marine

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office