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Temp8.2 C
RH33 %
WindSW 15 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

142
FXHW60 PHFO 111959
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
959 AM HST Tue Aug 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trade wind weather pattern can be expected through the remainder
of the week and on into early next week thanks to high pressure
far north of the area. Clouds and passing showers will tend to
favor windward and mountain areas with most leeward locations
remaining dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure is centered far to the north of the state.
This places the islands in a moderate to locally breezy trade wind
environment. Radar and satellite imagery shows just a few showers
impacting windward and mauka areas while leeward areas are dry. A
band of moisture just upwind of Kauai and Oahu, may provide for a
slight uptick in shower activity during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Daytime heating will also likely allow for
clouds and a few showers to form over the Kona slopes this
afternoon.

The surface high will drift toward the east northeast over the
next few days with a slight decrease in trade winds expected. This
will likely allow for more sheltered areas to experience sea breezes
during the afternoon hours. An upper level trough will linger to
the north northeast of Kauai but will have little impact on our
island weather except for allowing for a few high cirrus clouds to
pass overhead. Shower activity will tend to favor windward and
mauka areas especially during the late night through mid morning
hours and will be highly dependent on incoming moisture
availability.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will persist through
Wednesday. Clouds and scattered showers will continue to favor
north and east coasts, as well as island interiors where localized
sea breezes form. Partial clearing expected across leeward slopes
after midnight due to land breezes. Isolated MVFR CIG and VIS
will occur in passing showers, but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for all areas.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 8000 feet over and south
thru west of mountains for occasional moderate turbulence.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the state will maintain a trade wind
pattern through the next week. Moderate to locally strong trades
will persist, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in place for the
typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island through
today. Some minor fluctuations in wind speeds could mean that
these areas could drop out of SCA levels tonight and/or
Wednesday. Will be looking at the ASCAT observations today and the
model trends to decide if the SCA needs to be extended.

The moderate to locally strong trades will keep elevated surf
along the east facing shores over the next couple of days. A new
10 second period northeast swell is expected to build Wednesday
night and Thursday, hold through Friday, then slowly fade over the
weekend. This will raise east shore surf to above the summertime
average Thursday through Saturday. A small long-period east swell
will be possible over the weekend in association with East
Pacific Hurricane Elida. Only small southerly swells are expected
along south facing shores through the week, with a bit of a bump
possibly raising south shore surf to near the summertime average
over the weekend. North shore surf will remain small through much
of the week, although some wrap from the northeast swell will
likely bring a bump to surf heights Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burke
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...M Ballard

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office