| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -1.1 C |
| RH | | 11 % |
| Wind | | SW 19 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 479 FXHW60 PHFO 042004 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1004 AM HST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will continue for the next couple of days as high pressures lies far to our north. Winds will increase over the weekend and on into early next week as the high to our north strengthens. An upper trough will linger over the area throughout the forecast period. This will cause for a rather wet trade wind pattern setting up. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas with the trade winds sufficiently strong enough to blow some passing showers over to leeward areas at times. && .DISCUSSION... Strong high pressure is centered far to the north northeast of the state resulting in breezy trade winds across the area. Moisture embedded in the trades is providing for some brief passing showers over windward and mauka areas with most leeward locations remaining dry. Expect little change in this weather pattern today. The high is forecast to drift east southeast and weaken slightly over the next couple of days. Also a weak low level trough will develop along an old frontal boundary. This will allow for a slight downward trend in trade wind speeds. Meanwhile, an upper trough will sharpen up over the area. This will keep the airmass a bit less stable which will allow for a wetter trade wind shower regime to set up especially for windward and mauka areas. Winds will be sufficiently strong enough to blow some passing showers over to select leeward areas at times. The upper trough may also allow for the thickening up of high clouds over the area from time to time. By Saturday, a surface high will strengthen north of the state with trade winds speeds increasing once again to breezy and windy levels. The upper trough will continue to linger over the area resulting in the wet trade wind pattern continuing through at least Sunday. This wet trade wind weather pattern will continue on into early next week as the trough aloft remains near the area and abundant low level moisture moves into the islands from the east. Trade winds will remain elevated as strong high pressure remains to our north. && .AVIATION... With high pressure far northwest of the islands, moderate to locally breezy northeast trade winds will persist over the next couple of days. Lower ceilings and showers, with accompanying MVFR conditions, will mainly affect windward and mauka sections. A surface trough is expected to form near the state later today into Friday, which is likely to increase showers over the smaller isles beginning tonight. And high cloudiness will be streaking over the area from the west. No AIRMETs are in effect. One may be needed later today and/or tonight for mountain obscuration as shower coverage increases. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) includes waters around Kauai, the Kauai Channel and windward Oahu waters for combined seas near 10 feet. SCA conditions will spread to most waters Friday and over the weekend due to building seas and winds as the high to our north strengthens. A bump in east shoreline surf will occur over the weekend as the trade wind swell increases and an arriving north swell wrap fills in. A northwest swell arriving today will peak below the HSA threshold along north and west-facing shores late today into Friday. A secondary, reinforcing north swell will arrive Friday night and may boost north facing shore surf to HSA heights Friday into Saturday and slowly diminish Sunday. Background south swells will provide small surf to south facing shores. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tsunami Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaii islands. Tsunami Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters- Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burke AVIATION...Kinel MARINE...Morrison Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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