| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.9 C |
| RH | | 23 % |
| Wind | | NW 36 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 917 FXHW60 PHFO 300135 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 335 PM HST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND... A BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES... WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH MONDAY AND THEN WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. && .DISCUSSION... A DIFFUSE FRONT NEAR THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING BANDS OF LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO OAHU AND KAUAI. TONIGHT... SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY BRINGING AN INCREASE TO CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD SLOPES... WHILE PASSING SHOWERS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZES PUSH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WIND DIRECTION WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TODAY... WEST OVERNIGHT... NORTH FRIDAY... NE SATURDAY... EAST SUNDAY... AND FINALLY BACK TO SOUTH MONDAY. THE WEAK FRONT NEAR THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL PULL NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE FILLING IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER WINDWARD AREAS BRINGING PASSING CLOUDS AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR LEEWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND... AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH THE SEA BREEZES OVERPOWERING THE LIGHT TRADES. NIGHTTIME SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH COOLER LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO RADIATIONAL HEATING. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE ISLAND TOPOGRAPHY FOCUSING RAINFALL OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST WITH WEST FACING SLOPES CATCHING THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FALLING ELSEWHERE. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER THE INITIAL FRONT OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED THURSDAY. THE FRONTS WILL BE A FOCUS OF RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE OVER THE STATE. WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL POTENTIALLY BE SUBJECT TO LARGE CHANGES. && .AVIATION... BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER OAHU. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 0400Z...AND THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED AT THAT TIME. MTN OBSC HAS ENDED OVER KAUAI...SO THE AIRMET HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE. ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR MAUI COUNTY. && .MARINE... A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER... REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG N FACING SHORES...AND LESS SO ALONG W FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS THE SWELL TURNS TOWARD THE N SATURDAY. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND CONTAINS DETAILED INSIGHT ON THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 10 FEET SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE JELSEMA...AVIATION Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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