| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 7.1 C |
| RH | | 16 % |
| Wind | | E 18 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 937 FXHW60 PHFO 060158 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 358 PM HST THU DEC 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT WINDS AND INTERIOR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW USHERING IN SHOWERS TO WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LATER IN THE WEEKEND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERIOR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON ALL THE ISLANDS...WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THUS FAR. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND LAND BREEZES BEGIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF SHALLOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH KAUAI COUNTY BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. BASED ON THE CLOUD STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS THUS FAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE SHALLOW IN NATURE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KAUAI MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK NORTH OF THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HINTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXISTS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS AT PHNY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOST INTERIOR AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL IS ON THE DECLINE...WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE ON THE WAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT WAVE WATCH III PREDICTIONS KEEP VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. TRADE WIND SWELL FOR THE EAST SHORES WILL BE DIMINISHING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ CANTIN Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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