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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

770
FXHW60 PHFO 011927
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
927 AM HST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH INCREASING IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE OUR
WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE STATE
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING OUR
TRADES WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
HAWAII...OR ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL GRADUALLY WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS
WITH SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW DECREASING TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND THE FRONT
ARRIVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU FRIDAY...AND FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE UNSEASONABLE AS
FRONTS RARELY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN HAWAII AT THE BEGINNING OF
MAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND GOES WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF
THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BRING SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON LEEWARD SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH TRADE WIND WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY...BUT
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON THE BIG ISLAND
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER
AND SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS BELOW 8000 FEET.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL
LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
POWELL...AVIATION

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office