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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

652
FXHW60 PHFO 111959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
959 AM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD KAUAI TODAY AND AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD
RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN END
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER MOST OF
THE STATE TODAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT
300 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE OVERNIGHT HILO SOUNDING AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA INTO
HNL SHOW AN INVERSION DOWN BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT...WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW AN INCH. A NARROW AND
DIFFUSE BAND OF SHOWER BEARING CUMULUS CLOUDS...THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATED FRONT...DROPPED DOWN OVER KAUAI OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LOW END
MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD KAUAI
THIS MORNING WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
MAINTAINS STABLE CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SITTING
275 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WINDWARD RAINFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...THOUGH
SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE LIKELY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY
ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT TRADE
WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOL MVFR CIGS ON WINDWARD KAUAI...
MAINLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TODAY. DATA FROM BUOY
51001 SHOW THE SWELL HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY THIS MORNING IN THE
14 TO 16 FT RANGE AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARNING
LEVEL SURF ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TODAY...AND
ASSUMING THE DECREASE IN SWELL ENERGY DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL MID
DAY...THE HIGH SURF WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR MOST WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL. TRADE
WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO SCA STRENGTH IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

WROE