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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

297
FXHW60 PHFO 051410
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT OF
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS AS
THE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES AWAY. SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM THE LATE MORNINGS THROUGH THE EVENINGS WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. THE WEATHER DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
JIMENA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY MOVED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS OF 330
AM...THE WEATHER IS DRY OVER MOST AREAS OF THE ISLANDS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER KAUAI AND THERE ARE HEAVY SHOWERS JUST OFF THE
KONA DISTRICT OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A BAND OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE IGNACIO AND A TROUGH
ALOFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. THE
200 AM BALLOON SOUNDING FROM LIHUE SHOWED A LIFTED INDEX OF -5.2
AND THE HILO SOUNDING SHOWED A LI OF -3.5.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST WINDS
OVER THE WATER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO PREVAIL. SEA
BREEZES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS MAINLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAND
BREEZES WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS. THE MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT OF IGNACIO
AND A TROUGH ALOFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO BRING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVER OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST...BUT HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LINGER OVER
OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN UP FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

THE WEATHER OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL DEPEND OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA. JIMENA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST. IF JIMENA HOLDS
TOGETHER AND PASSES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...IT COULD BRING
MORE OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND WET WEATHER THAT HAVE OCCURRED THIS
WEEK. IF JIMENA TRACKS CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS WE COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. EVERYONE SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR COND WILL PREVAIL BUT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
TCU AND CB TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. THESE BUILDUPS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY AND OVER WATER AT NIGHT. MTN
OBSC IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP SURF ABOVE THE
WARNING LEVEL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES OF
THE ISLANDS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE SWELL. LANAI AND NIIHAU WILL BE
SHIELDED FROM THIS SWELL.

A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU...
SRDHFO...FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI
AND OAHU.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 600 PM MONDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$
DONALDSON