Current Conditions
Temp6.4 C
RH23 %
WindNE 10 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 260152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
352 PM HST Sat Jun 25 2022

Limited showers over windward slopes overnight will transition to
a greater coverage of leeward showers by Sunday afternoon. More
stable and locally breezy trades return during the first half of
next week.



Cyclonic flow around the south/southeast periphery of a mid-level
low is established over the islands this afternoon. Gentle
background forcing associated with this feature has contributed to
diminished stability in the lowest 10kft which has favored an
enhanced coverage of moderate to locally heavy showers this
afternoon as the hybrid sea breeze pattern focuses convergence
over leeward zones. Loss of diurnal heating this evening will
allow moderate trades to once again focus limited shower activity
over windward slopes. As the existing pocket of deeper moisture
gradually shifts westward, the convective response tomorrow
afternoon will likely resemble that of today, albeit somewhat
muted as moisture quality gradually declines.

Stability will then gradually return through the mid-week. First,
as drier air around 700mb advects toward the area from the east
and then as the resident upper low lifts north and begins to
partially shear back into the westerlies. Pressure rises over the
northeast Pacific basin will bring a return to locally breezy
trades as early as Tuesday afternoon.



VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites and these conditions are
expected to continue through the evening and on into the overnight
hours. There may be brief periods of MVFR conditions at windward
terminals such as PHTO and PHLI as well as over windward slopes
of all islands as moisture embedded in the trades interacts with
island terrain.



Trade winds will hold at current strength through tomorrow night
then increase Monday. A front passing between the islands and a
surface high more than 1000 nm north of Kauai will keep the winds
at gentle to moderate strength in the short term. The front will
dissipate early next week, and high pressure will build far
northeast of the state, leading to an increase in trade winds to
fresh to locally strong levels by Monday or Monday night. A Small
Craft Advisory will be needed for the typically windy waters
around the Big Island and Maui through the middle of the week and
likely through next weekend.

Two pulses of south swell will produce elevated south shore surf
this week. Low, long period forerunners from the first swell are
showing up at the buoys south of the islands and will produce
rising south shore surf Sunday. Surf will peak a couple of feet
overhead Monday, then build near the advisory level Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next pulse arrives. This swell will gradually
decline Thursday and Friday.

Surf along exposed north and east facing shores will see a bump
in small, short period swell tonight into Monday. Surf along
north shores will drop Tuesday, while strengthening trade winds
will boost rough east shore surf to around seasonal average.






Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office