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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 031942
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
942 AM HST Fri Jul 3 2020
Light to moderate trade winds will prevail through the holiday
weekend, then strengthen early next week. An area of abundant
moisture will be moving across the islands later today through
Saturday, bringing warm and muggy conditions, and an uptick in
showers. The boost in the trades early next week, will bring with
it a drier and more stable air mass.
No changes to the forecast this morning, and not expecting to make
any major changes today.
A weak trough to the east of the islands is helping to disrupt the
trade wind flow. This trough is expected towards the islands and
dissipate over the weekend. A weak upper level trough associated
with the surface feature is helping to enhance some showers near
the surface trough.
Satellite show an area of showery low clouds about 60 miles east
of the Big Island, and another batch of showery low clouds moving
over the central islands this morning. Both of these areas will
likely mean an uptick in shower activity through Saturday. The
showers will be focused over windward areas, however winds are
expected to be light enough for some land and sea breezes to
become established. This will allow some of the showers to drift
and/or form over interior and leeward areas.
While not expecting any issues with the showers, its possible that
some of the showers will be heavier than the typical trade wind
showers. In addition, the airmass moving over the islands has
dewpoint in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Combined with the
lighter winds, expect a warm and muggy weekend.
As we head into the new week, expect the trade winds to rebound,
with a return to more typical trade wind weather.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
A high far north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate
low-level easterly flow. VFR conditions will prevail, but the
low-level flow will carry some clouds over east sections of the
islands and produce isolated MVFR ceilings and visibilities. These
conditions will be most prevalent during the night and early
morning hours. Sea breezes will produce isolated MVFR conditions
over west and interior sections of the islands, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours.
A weak surface trough passing through the state will bring light
to moderate trades the next few days. High pressure will
strengthen early next week, and accelerate trade winds into the
moderate to breezy range. Small Craft Advisory conditions for the
typically windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island are
expected to return by Tuesday.
The current small SSW swell will gradually decline into Saturday.
Otherwise, a mix of small background swells from the SSE and SSW
are expected through next week. Surf is expected to stay below
advisory levels for the foreseeable future.
Surf along east facing shores will decrease through the weekend
as the trades weaken. Surf along north facing shores will remain
nearly flat with mainly background trade wind swell.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office