Current Conditions
Temp2.5 C
RH57 %
WindNNE 9 mph
RoadOpen (4x4 only)
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

357
FXHW60 PHFO 301352
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...AS WELL AS A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. HURRICANE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY AND WETTER WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF IGNACIO COULD BRING
STRONG WINDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. ONCE IGNACIO MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE...DECREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED AROUND THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND DURING THE
NIGHT...BUT REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR NORTH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE STATE...WHILE MAJOR HURRICANE
IGNACIO IS CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO AS OF
2 AM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER AND WEST OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE...
WITH WEAK INVERSIONS AROUND 7-8K FEET PRESENT IN BOTH SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS...AS MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER
THE STATE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF APPROACHING HURRICANE
IGNACIO.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE IMPACTS ACROSS
THE STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS
IGNACIO ON A STEADY NORTHWEST MOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE PASSING FAIRLY CLOSE BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE STATE WOULD
CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR WEATHER...WHILE A TRACK
FARTHER AWAY WOULD RESULT IN LESS OF A WEATHER THREAT. FOR NOW...
WE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BREEZY AND RATHER WET WEATHER PATTERN AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. FOR THE LATEST DETAILS
ON HURRICANE IGNACIO...PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
PRODUCTS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. ALSO...FOR ANY
AREA UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO HONOLULU.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...A REGIME OF GRADUALLY
DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE THAT A TAIL OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG SEABREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOONS...AND THESE
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORMALLY DRY LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONTO WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING
FIRST ON THE BIG ISLAND...THEN SPREADING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE HIGH SURF WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
EXISTING HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI.
THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER ON.
ADDITIONAL HIGH SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE OTHER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH POSTED
FOR SOME OF THE WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY. WHILE IGNACIO IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE
TRACK OF IGNACIO COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE WINDWARD WATERS.

FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING SURF AND MARINE IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE
IGNACIO...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS...
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO
HONOLULU.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH BIG ISLAND-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

JACOBSON