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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

586
FXHW60 PHFO 200647
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
840 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANA
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE ALOHA STATE. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT
KAUAI COUNTY WHERE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 161.7W...OR ABOUT 175
MILES WSW OF LIHUE KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.
MEANWHILE...MAUI COUNTY IS NO LONGER UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN AT BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AS A
LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA LINGERS TO THE S AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DECREASING ACROSS OAHU...PERIODS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING. RADAR DATA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT ANA REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS TONIGHT. THUS...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK..ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW TO
BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...EXCEPT ACROSS KAUAI
COUNTY WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF ANA WILL KEEP AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW
FROM THE S. A DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING AS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH TUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR WHICH HIGHER POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS STILL COVER FROM MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH KAUAI AND ITS WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CB TOPS ABOVE FL350...PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS. AT PHLI EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER OAHU...INCLUDING PHNL AND PHJR...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN REMAIN OVER MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING BETWEEN 150 AND
FL220 ALSO REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. MAUI COUNTY
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED BY 1000Z.


SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE
TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED
AREAS OF THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI THIS EVENING. FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO
ANA...PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING OAHU...THE KAUAI
CHANNEL...THE KAUAI NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS...AND THE MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

ELSEWHERE...THE WAVES PRODUCED BY ANA WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON




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