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Temp3.4 C
RH13 %
WindSE 27 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

021
FXHW60 PHFO 260119
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
319 PM HST THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue as high pressure persists to our north
and troughing to our west moves away. Trade winds will be locally
strong as clouds and showers favor windward and mauka areas
through early next week. A pair of tropical cyclones expected to
move westward across the central Pacific may affect the main
Hawaiian Islands beginning late next week, possibly bringing more
active weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deep troughing west of the main Hawaiian Islands has moved far
enough away to allow trade winds to build westward across the
state today. High pressure to our north will keep trade winds
moderate to locally strong across the traditionally windy waters
around Maui and the Big Island, and a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for those marine zones. Clouds and showers will favor
windward and mauka areas through the weekend. A patch of showery
low clouds embedded in the trades just upwind from the Big Island
will increase cloud and shower coverage there tonight and the
gridded database was altered accordingly.

We expect the high to our north will keep moderate to locally
strong trade winds in place, along with comfortable humidity
levels and relatively few showers, through early next week.
Beginning late next week, models show that a pair of tropical
cyclones moving westward across the central Pacific may affect the
island chain. However, it's still too early to tell what, if any,
impacts could be seen in Hawaii. The National Hurricane Center in
Miami is tracking these systems now, but the first of these
systems could cross 140W into the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center's area of responsibility as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will occur mostly across the terminals through the
TAF period as northeasterly trade winds prevail. Satellite imagery
indicates an area of low-level moisture moving toward the Big
Island. This increased moisture will contribute to make showers
more likely for PHTO with isolated to scattered MVFR this evening.
Otherwise, brief MVFR conditions will be possible with showers for
the windward and mountain areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the traditionally windy
waters around Maui and the Big Island, thanks to locally strong
trade winds. This advisory is in effect through Friday afternoon,
but will likely have to be extended in some form through the
weekend.

Short period trade wind swell will increase surf slightly along
eastern facing shores Friday and into the weekend. Otherwise, no
significant surf is expected through early next week. By the
middle of next week, long period easterly swell generated by
potential tropical cyclone activity east of Hawaii may begin to
affect the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Powell
AVIATION...Woodrum

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office