| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 2.7 C |
| RH | | 46 % |
| Wind | | NNW 0 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 086 FXHW60 PHFO 180623 CCA AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 815 PM HST MON JUN 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS FAVORING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. && .DISCUSSION... A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS...ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT THE COOLING TRADES THAT THE HIGH PRODUCES. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IS SLATED TO EASE OFF SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT IT REBOUND INTO THE LOCALLY STRONG ABOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WEAKENING OF THE TRADES COMES ABOUT AS THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ARE BEING TESTED BY A FRONT THAT WILL NOT INFLUENCE THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND RIDGE AND HIGH REBUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN THE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS DAYS THEREAFTER. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER IS SLATED TOP 8000 FEET. THE LAYER ITSELF IS SLATED TO BE MOIST...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT KIND OF A SHOWERY PATTERN ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS POINTING TO A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WITH THE INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER...SO WITH THIS SAID...WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRIER TRADE WIND REGIME THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS... JUST FEWER...AND FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS... ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN SKIES THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CIRRUS IS PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER KAUAI WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL...EVEN AFTER THE LOW FILLS...A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW CIRRUS FROM THE TROPICS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AFFECTING THE BIG ISLAND. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AREA WIDE BUT PRIMARILY THE LEE SIDE OF OAHU TONIGHT. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE WINDIER PLACES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE SCA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED. BUT THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SCA TO BE DROPPED. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODERATE SURF ALONG E SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. && AVIATION... THERE WILL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS WITH THE SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FREQUENTING THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY OF THE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ LAU Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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