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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

634
FXHW60 PHFO 111403
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 AM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL RETURN TODAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT THE TRADES TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING GUSTY TRADE
WINDS...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A WET TRADE WIND FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING AROUND
KAUAI...MARKED BY A NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AT 330 AM
HST...RADAR DATA SHOWED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE KAUAI
CHANNEL AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR WINDWARD KAUAI.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC RIDGE THAT HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS PUSHING NE AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A TRADE WIND
PATTERN...GRADUALLY RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH LATE FRI. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE NW
ON FRI...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND VEERING SFC WINDS TO A LIGHTER SE
FLOW. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY HUMID
AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH NE OF THE ISLANDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BRING STRONGER TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
SHOW AN AREA OF LINGERING ENHANCED MOISTURE UPSTREAM AND N OF THE
ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER COLD FRONT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
PUSHED BY THE TRADES BACK INTO THE ISLES. THUS...EXPECT INCREASING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...WITH TRADE SHOWERS POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS AT TIMES. BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS POTENTIALLY WET SCENARIO STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES TO FILL IN AROUND
KAUAI COUNTY THIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNDER A STRENGTHENING TRADE
WIND FLOW. AS THE TRADES BECOME MORE DOMINANT TODAY...THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF THE FRONT MAY REACH OAHU LATER THIS MORNING OR IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO MOLOKAI AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE INCREASING TRADES
WILL ALSO BE CARRYING A NE TO SW BAND OF MOISTURE TO WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY 100 MILES E OF THE BIG
ISLAND. SO...TRADE SHOWERS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE ISLE SCENE...
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET.

ELSEWHERE...A SHEET OF STABLE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED
AROUND THE WINDWARD WATERS OF MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DURING
THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3K FEET OR
ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. THEY ERODE/BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUN RISE...
BUT REAPPEAR OVER THE NEARBY WINDWARD SLOPES WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF MVFR CEILINGS. THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE ITS
ALMOST DAILY RITUAL OF A SUNNY MORNING FOLLOW BY INCREASING CLOUDS
TO BKN TO OVC COVERAGE OVER THE SLOPES AND COAST AFTER 22Z.

TRADES WILL BE THE PREVAILING WIND BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE
AIRMET TANGO IS NOT REQUIRED.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...AND
NONE ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A DANGEROUSLY LARGE NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IS PRODUCE VERY LARGE
SURF ALONG EXPOSED N AND W FACING SHORES TODAY. DETAILS ON THIS
SWELL AND ITS IMPACTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE LATEST OAHU SURF
DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/.

THE LARGE SWELL WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. IT SHOULD THEN SHOULD DROP
BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A WNW SWELL EXPECTED SUNDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF REACHING THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST N AND W FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE W COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL MAY
ALSO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE W FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST
HAWAIIAN WATERS EXPERIENCING ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE NNW SWELL.
TRADE WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO THE SCA CRITERIA IN THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-KONA-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU