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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 250200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST Sat Mar 24 2018
Low pressure moving through the region will bring wet weather to
the Big Island tonight while the rest of the state slowly dries
out. Scattered showers and partly cloudy skies are expected for
Sunday as some instability remains over the area. A light wind
regime will allow for daytime sea breezes and overnight land
breezes next week.
A wide band of thick layered clouds is slowly moving across Maui
County and the Big Island this evening with clearing skies over
Kauai and Oahu. Moderate rains with isolated embedded heavy
showers have reached the Big Island and the inclement weather will
remain through tonight with a flash flood watch in effect. The
flash flood watch has been cancelled for the smaller islands.
Lingering showers will remain across the smaller islands as a
second trough moves toward Kauai from the west. This trough will
increase showers again for mainly Kauai and Oahu on Sunday with
some instability provided by a transient upper level trough.
Atop the Big Island Summits, strong winds reaching over 70 MPH
will continue with near zero visibility. Snow and freezing rain
will produce treacherous conditions above the 12,000 foot level. A
Blizzard Warning remains in effect through Sunday morning. High
winds are expected to linger into Sunday afternoon.
Monday through Wednesday...low pressure will develop north of the
islands bringing light southerly winds to the islands Monday with
afternoon convective showers expected over the higher terrain.
Light and variable winds Tuesday and Wednesday will allow
afternoon sea breezes to develop with clouds and showers
developing over interior areas. Nighttime land breezes will push
most of those clouds over the coastal waters by late evening
bringing clear skies at night. Overall drier weather conditions
are expected compared to recent activity. A weak surface trough
will linger near the Big Island bringing some enhanced shower
activity along the eastern slopes, mainly for the Kau and Puna
AIRMET SIERRA is posted for mountain obscuration from Molokai eastward.
AIRMET TANGO is posted for moderate turbulence between 10000 feet
and 30000 feet. This has been confirmed by several pilot reports.
AIRMET ZULU is posted for light icing between 13000 feet and
23000 feet. This has been confirmed by several pilot reports.
Expect these conditions to continue through the evening hours with
a gradually improvement from west to east.
Occasional MVFR conditions have been occurring at some of the TAF
sites in low clouds and shra mainly Maui County and the Big
Island. These conditions will likely improve this evening over
Maui County and later tonight and Sunday over The Big Island.
An area of low pressure is still expected to make its way across
the central and eastern islands tonight, and bring unsettled
weather to the eastern islands. The chance for heavy rain and
thunderstorms will remains over the waters around the Big Island
and Maui. Mariners should continue to be aware of the threat of
inclement weather, with locally strong winds and high seas due to
possible thunderstorms. Improving conditions are expected, from
west to east tonight into tomorrow, as the bulk of the moisture
moves away from the islands.
Winds will continue to be highly variable as the area of low
pressure moves through and north of the islands. Light and
variable winds, likely favoring a south to west direction should
continue through midweek. Light trades should start to make a comeback
by Thursday. Winds are expected to remain below the Small Craft
Advisory through the period.
The current northeast swell will continue to subside through the
weekend. No other significant swells are expected through at
least the middle of next week. Long term forecast guidance shows
a gale force low developing off Japan and tracking east through
the week. This would translate to possible advisory level surf for
north and west facing shores next weekend. Small southwest swells
are also expected to continue through the next several days.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Kona-South Big Island-
Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office