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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

369
FXHW60 PHFO 140608
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LEEWARD
LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU AND KAUAI. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL
REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY CAN BE NOTICED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT 550 MILES NW OF KAUAI AND GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO
VEER WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...KEEPING A WEAK SE
FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI...AND A LIGHT E WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI COUNTY.

A RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
RADAR DATA SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT...WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...MORE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONTINUING LIGHT SE WINDS ON OAHU AND KAUAI...AND BECOMING MODERATE
FROM THE E OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING JUST NW
OF KAUAI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH INTENSIFIES...BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO A MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN MON THROUGH
WED. THE REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON KAUAI BY MON NIGHT. THEN...AN
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL HELP IN
PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY BY TUE. ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE BIG ISLAND BY WED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN
DEPICTING MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM LATE MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS MAY REACH LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AT TIMES. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS...THUS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE
WITH NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SFC RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH
TO THE NW...GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER TO
THE S OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS DESCENDING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BREEZY TRADES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY...DUE TO BREEZY
EAST WINDS PRODUCED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING WEST NORTHWEST SWELL
TO THE ISLANDS. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES PUSHING IN WITH A
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SURF BUILDING ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU IN THE MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO OAHU MOLOKAI
AND MAUI IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG TRADES PRODUCED BY AN INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
OF SOME ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON