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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

341
FXHW60 PHFO 220129
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING
MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST AND BEGAN TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FROM THIS AREA MOVED OVER
OAHU...BUT AS OF 3 PM...THE AREA IS HARDLY RECOGNIZABLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATE MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SUBTLE CHANGES IN PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE REGION. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ SHOWS VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS...SO WE CAN EXPECT MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
LIKELY SOME HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WHICH SPREAD OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY HAS
MIXED OUT...LEAVING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AIRMET SIERRA HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED AND NO OTHER AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE SOME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL HAS BROUGHT SURF JUST ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVEL...AND IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE FRIDAY. AS SUCH A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SMALLER SOUTH
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER SOUTH SWELL
MAY ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...POWELL




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