| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.5 C |
| RH | | 97 % |
| Wind | | ESE 13 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 234 FXHW60 PHFO 260152 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST SAT MAY 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES WITH SOME SHOWERS CARRYING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS... MAINLY AT NIGHT. TRADES WILL DECREASE A NOTCH AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL SHOWER PATTERN ARE DUE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TO A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N142W. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEED FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS IN STORE TONIGHT FOR MAINLY WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL SEE SOME PASSING SHOWERS. A FIELD OF SHOWER-BEARING CUMULUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLIP KAUAI AND OAHU IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN FOCUSED ON MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND INTO THE MORNING. THE CLOUD FIELD IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED AND ELEVATED THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... WHICH IS HANGING ON NEAR 10000 FT OVER THE BIG ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE LONGER...INTO THE MORNING...ON THE BIG ISLAND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE. A TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. A DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SHOWERS IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND A WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. IN THE EXTENDED...STABLE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT MODERATE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY...AND MODEST RAINFALL WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR SCT MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS ON WINDWARD AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE LONG WEEKEND. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND IMT S THRU W OF MOUNTAINS BELOW 080 EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE LONG WEEKEND AS WELL. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...HAS BEEN EXPANDED FROM THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE KAIWI CHANNEL IN ANTICIPATION OF A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS TONIGHT. A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH THE SCA CONDITIONS ENDING AROUND TUESDAY. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTED AGAIN FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS BY FRIDAY. SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH SWELLS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE WIND SWELL WILL AFFECT EAST SHORES WHILE SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES IS RETURNING TO MINIMAL SUMMER LEVELS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ALENUIHAHA...PAILOLO...AND KAIWI CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE AVIATION...BEDAL Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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