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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 221405
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST Sat Oct 22 2016
Trade winds will be the strongest today, as a surface high pressure
far north of the state moves closer to the islands. Winds will
gradually weaken early next week as the high weakens. Much of the
passing showers will focus across windward and mauka areas. Some
showers will reach the leeward areas of the smaller islands at
times. Remnant moisture from weak frontal boundaries may reach
the area at times throughout next week.
Trade winds will continue to strengthen a bit and peak later today
as a strong surface high far north of the islands sags south, closer
to the islands. Latest satellite imagery as well as radar data
indicated more low clouds with embedded showers in the island
vicinity early this morning, affecting mainly windward areas.
Moreover, winds are strong enough to carry some showers to the lee
areas of the smaller islands. Winds will continue to be strong
enough to warrant the wind advisory for much of the state today.
Strongest winds can be expected for the exposed areas as well as
through the gaps in the mountains, with strong gusts possible for
the lee valleys.
Winds will trend downward Sunday through Wednesday, easing to
moderate to locally fresh levels, as the surface high north of the
area weakens. Trade wind weather will prevail across the islands.
Forecast models indicated moisture associated with weak frontal
boundaries from the north may reach the state at times, bringing a
possible increase in the showers. The trades may strengthen again by
late next week as another strong high is expected to build well
north of the Aloha state.
High pressure north of the state will keep a windy trade wind flow
in place through tonight. Showers will favor windward and mauka
areas, but the strong trades will periodically allow some showers
to move into leeward locations as well. Temporary MVFR cigs/vsbys
will be possible in windward areas as shower bands move through.
Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions are expected.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai
Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island. Conditions should improve
later this morning in most areas.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turbulence over
and downwind of the mountains across all islands. Conditions are
expected to continue through the weekend.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the typically windy coastal waters
around the Big Island and Maui through early Sunday morning as trade
winds strengthen a bit more today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
continues for the rest of the coastal waters as well. The trades
will gradually weaken Sunday through Wednesday, allowing the
cancellation of the Gale Warning while the areal coverage of the SCA
likely being pared back to the typically windy coastal waters around
Maui county and the Big Island only.
Surf for east facing shores will continue to build today, as the
winds strengthen, with surf heights along east facing shores
reaching advisory levels. Therefore, a high surf advisory is in
effect for the east facing shores of most islands though Sunday.
Elsewhere, there will be a series of small north to northwest swells
through Monday, with a moderate west-northwest swell expected on
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for east facing shores of
Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM HST this evening for all of Hawaii except
Kona, Haleakala and Big Island Summits.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for the rest of Hawaiian
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office