| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 3.1 C |
| RH | | 36 % |
| Wind | | WSW 3 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 036 FXHW60 PHFO 190635 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST TUE JUN 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N144W...FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST THROUGH 30N170W. THIS RIDGE IS ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ALSO COVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. RETURN FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING KEEP THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS LEEWARD AND KAU SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE WINDWARD CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT LEEWARD BIG ISLAND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 7200 FEET...CAPPING THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND KEEPING SHOWERS FAIRLY LIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WEST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH AN AREA OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS MARKING ITS EASTERN FLANK. MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE SPARSE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS CONTINUING...THIS SPARSE RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIG LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS AND CAUSE TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND TRADES WILL LIKELY BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN. && .AVIATION... THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOME WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SCA IS LIKELY TO GO BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY. SURF WILL BE GENERALLY SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. A SMALL SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND STARTING SUNDAY...BUT THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY BLOCK MOST OF THE SWELL FROM REACHING THE REST OF THE ISLANDS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL AVIATION...HOUSTON Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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