| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.1 C |
| RH | | 10 % |
| Wind | | ENE 48 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 794 FXHW60 PHFO 160202 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 402 PM HST TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BY WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AND OCCASIONALLY TO LEEWARD SIDES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION... BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1500 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD. EVIDENCE OF THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS OBSERVED IN THE STATION SURFACE PRESSURES DOWN 2 MB PLUS SINCE YESTERDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE...AND HAVE JUST CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND TODAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AT HILO SHOWS THE MIDLEVEL INVERSION UP TO NEAR 9000 FEET...WHILE IT IS 6000 FEET AT LIHUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.23 INCHES AT HILO AND 0.92 INCHES AT LIHUE. THE ELEVATED INVERSION HEIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND IS RESULTING FROM A DEVELOPING TUTT...OR TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS ARE BLOWING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS...AND HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK... BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT WILL BE MINOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SOLID MIDLEVEL RIDING OVER THE STATE. THROUGH FRIDAY...TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM PRODUCING PRIMARILY WINDWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SOME PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IT ONTO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS DUE TO THE BREEZY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OCCUR MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE TUTT WILL BEGIN TO RAISE AND WEAKEN THE MIDLEVEL TRADE WIND INVERSION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE TRADE SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE LACKING SOMEWHAT AT THAT TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A NEW HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND PASS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION... 23Z-00Z AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM LIH/HNL/OGG/KOA AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 25+ KNOTS OF WIND BELOW THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. 00Z RAOBS SHOW INVERSIONS HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGHER IN HILO THAN IN LIHUE...BUT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE AIRMET FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. THE AIRMET MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE CONDITIONS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER 25 KNOTS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS MOST RAINFALL ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS... BUT BRIEF SHOWERS WILL ALSO AFFECT LEEWARD SECTIONS AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. && .MARINE... ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE CHANNELS. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE CHANNELS AND WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE WINDIER ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. TRADE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...AND REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE LOCAL WIND WAVES. A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND PEAK THURSDAY WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER AVIATION...BRAVENDER Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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