| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.7 C |
| RH | | 76 % |
| Wind | | WSW 16 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 163 FXHW60 PHFO 160705 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 905 PM HST Wed Aug 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A high will remain far northeast of the area through early next week. A far northwest of the area will move east to a position north of the islands by the middle of next week. Tropical moisture will move west across the area though the weekend. Drier air will move over the islands on Monday. Tropical Storm Lane will likely strengthen to a hurricane and move into the central Pacific over the weekend. It is too soon to know if Lane will directly affect the Hawaiian Islands. && .DISCUSSION... The surface analysis at 800 PM shows a 1026mb surface high around 1700 miles northeast of the islands near 43N 142W. The high is forecast to move northeast slowly through early next week. This distant high will maintain gentle to moderate easterly trade winds over the islands through early next week. An area of moist air associated with a trough in the lower atmosphere has been moving west across the islands. A trough higher in the atmosphere northwest of the islands is making the atmosphere somewhat unstable. The combination of moisture and instability will keep showers active for the next few days. Since trade winds will continue, showers will be focused over mainly windward areas but cloud will build high enough to spill over to some leeward areas. Thunderstorms will be possible over the Big Island slopes during the afternoons and evenings. A new area of tropical moisture will spread over the islands during the weekend and enhance showers even more. Tropical Storm Lane, now far southeast of the islands, is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane and move into the central Pacific over the weekend. It is too soon to know if Lane will directly impact the islands. An indirect impact associated with Lane may be seen early next week as drier air associated with subsidence ahead of the hurricane spreads over the islands on Monday. && .AVIATION... Light to locally moderate trade wind speeds are expected through Thursday, supported by a surface high to the distant northeast. An area of moisture embedded in the trade wind flow lies over windward waters from Oahu to the Big Island, with some of this moisture moving ashore over windward areas. With a nearby upper- level trough providing instability, showers are more active than usual, and a few of showers are locally heavy, leading to areas of MVFR VIS/CIG with isolated areas of IFR VIS/CIG. PHTO will be the terminal most likely to be impacted. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is posted for windward Big Island where low clouds and showers have persisted. Little overall change is expected through Thursday, with the light trade winds keeping most clouds and showers focused over windward slopes and coasts. However, trade winds will be sufficiently light to allow afternoon leeward sea breezes to drive the formation of some clouds and a few showers, some of which may be locally heavy and/or develop into thunderstorms, mainly over the interior portions and slopes of the Big Island. && .MARINE... Light to moderate trade winds are expected to continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, with an uptick in winds possible early next week. Shower activity is expected to increase this weekend, particularly over the windward waters as tropical moisture moves in from the east. No significant swells are expected over the next several days, so expect surf to remain small on all shores. A small south-southeast swell is expected to fill in Thursday, peak Friday and hold through Saturday at heights below the summer average. We will continue to monitor the development of tropical cyclone Lane, which is currently located in the eastern Pacific. Lane may bring an easterly swell to the coastal waters as early as Monday of next week. See the latest Collaborative Surf Discussion for more details on surf and swell. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donaldson AVIATION...Birchard MARINE...Kino Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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