| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 6.7 C |
| RH | | 71 % |
| Wind | | SW 14 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 715 FXHW60 PHFO 271950 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 950 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A surface high far north of the area will move north through mid- week, then back south through next weekend. A ridge aloft will remain over the islands through Friday. A trough aloft may affect weather for the islands starting over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite loops through 900 AM show overcast clouds over the windward side of the Big Island, scattered to broken clouds over windward areas of the other islands and only isolated clouds elsewhere. Radars are showing only isolated light showers upstream of the islands. The global models are in good agreement showing moderate to breezy trade winds and stable conditions through the day on Friday. The trade winds will push showers over windward areas, especially during the nights and mornings. Leeward areas of the smaller islands will be relatively dry while there will be afternoon clouds and showers over the leeward side of the Big Island. Both the GFS and ECMWF show an east northeast to west southwest trough aloft trough, the kind often called a tropical upper tropospheric trough, or TUTT, deepening north of the islands starting Friday. Both models also show a low aloft developing northwest of Kauai on Saturday. Beyond that, the models diverge significantly and at this point it is hard to know which one will be better. In either case, the atmosphere over the islands is likely to become more moist and unstable over the weekend. Both models show moisture from the remnant of Ulika moving over the islands moving over the islands over the weekend. If the development of the trough aloft and the arrival of the tropical moisture match closely enough, there could be a period of wet weather over the islands. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu has been issuing bulletins on Tropical Storm Ulika. This system is over 1100 miles east southeast of Hilo and is moving north slowly. The system is now east of 140W, so the National Hurricane Center will be issuing the bulletins on the system. The cyclone is not expected to affect weather in the islands for the next several days. && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail but ENE trade winds may produce isolated MVRF conditions over windward areas, especially on the Big Island. Breezy trade winds will persist through at least the next 24 hours. Expect AIRMET TANGO to remain up for low level turbulence to the lee of the mountains. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windy areas around the Big Island and Maui. Both the GFS and ECMWF both show winds weakening over the next 24 hours, but the winds may remain strong enough for the SCA to stay up. A small northwest swell will continue through tomorrow before fading away. Surf will remain well below the advisory levels on all shores for the next several days. Please see the Collaborative Surf Discussion in the Marine section on our web site for details. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island. && $$ Donaldson Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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