| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 7.5 C |
| RH | | 23 % |
| Wind | | WNW 3 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
|
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: |
|
Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special |
|
|
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 238 FXHW60 PHFO 152022 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1022 AM HST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A trough over the islands will dissipate by this evening as a high builds north of the area. The trailing end of a frontal band will move over the islands from the north on Saturday. The band will move south of the Big Island Sunday night. The trailing end of another front may move over the islands during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Surface analyses show a weak trough extending north from over the islands. The trough has been producing light winds over the islands. High clouds are moving over the area from the west but land breezes have cleared away the low clouds over the islands bringing dry weather this morning. Winds may remain light enough for afternoon cloudiness to develop and produce a few showers over interior areas this afternoon. A 1027 mb surface high is centered about 1100 miles northwest of Kauai near 35N 171W. This high will move east over the next few days and bring a return of breezy trade winds by tonight. The high will push a band of showery low clouds...the trailing end of a front...southeastward toward the islands. The shower band will reach Kauai late tomorrow night then push southeast across the area moving southeast of the Big Island Sunday night. There will be frequent showers over windward areas as the band passes with scattered showers over leeward areas. A trough aloft is forecast to dig south toward the area, but the global models have backed way off on the moisture and instability associated with the trough. I have dropped thunderstorms and heavy rain from the forecasts. The high will gradually weaken early next week as a new front approaches from the northwest. A strong new high will build behind the front. The trailing end of the front will likely move over the islands during the middle of next week and produce more wet weather over windward areas. && .AVIATION... Light winds this morning will gradually give way to strengthening northeast trade winds this afternoon. A relatively dry and stable airmass over the state currently will begin to destabilize today as a mid-level trough pushes in from the northwest. The more unstable atmosphere combined with increasing trade winds will cause showers to become more frequent over windward sections, with areas of MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration possible, especially later today and tonight. AIRMET SIERRA may be required for mountain obscuration at that time. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms over at least windward sections of the state beginning this evening. && .MARINE... Light trade winds over the area will gradually increase later today and tonight as high pressure builds far north of the state. Winds will become strong enough likely requiring a Small Craft Advisory over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. These strong winds are expected to continue into early next week. A new northwest swell filling in tonight and Friday may cause seas to exceed the 10 foot advisory threshold over exposed waters around Kauai and Oahu. The northwest swell is expected to arrive tonight, peak on Friday, then lower gradually Friday night and Saturday. A slightly smaller north northwest swell is expected Saturday night and Sunday. Another small to moderate size northwest swell is expected to arrive on Monday, peak Monday night and early Tuesday, then lower gradually into Wednesday. Small, mainly background south swells are expected through the remainder of this week and on into the middle of next week. A slight uptick in short period choppy surf can be expected beginning Friday as the trade winds increase. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donaldson AVIATION...Foster MARINE...Burke Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
|