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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

452
FXHW60 PHFO 060657
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST AREAS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CARRY SOME SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. A FRONT WILL
REACH KAUAI SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AS IT ADVANCES TO THE BIG ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL...DRY WEATHER WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS BEHIND THE FRONT. A
NEW RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF GENTLE
TRADE WINDS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT OAHU MOLOKAI AND LANAI
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS. BIG ISLAND
HAS CLEARED QUITE A BIT AS THE DAYTIME CONVECTION COLLAPSES...WHILE
KAUAI HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SINCE IT IS ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...KEEPING OAHU MOLOKAI AND LANAI SOMEWHAT CLOUDY. MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE KAUAI MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS. INTERESTINGLY...LATEST
WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR INDICATED LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT
THE LOWEST LEVEL...HINTING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE
ISLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. BUT THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY MAY HINT THE PROCESS A LITTLE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY PART OF
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT NORTHWEST ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS UNDER DAYTIME HEATING.

THE PENDING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI SATURDAY
EVENING...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR AREAS ACROSS THE ISLANDS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...REACHING THE BIG
ISLAND BY SUNDAY...WHILE WEAKENING. COOL DRY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER
THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 60S AND THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL FEEL EVEN
COOLER WITH THE LOW DEW POINT EXPECTED. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY AND STABLE.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ON WHAT THE NEXT
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL DO. LATEST GFS HAS THIS FEATURE A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING SOME SHOWERS WHILE ECMWF HAS THIS
FEATURE STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ISLAND
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BIG ISLAND WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR THERE. ISOLATED MVFR IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE ISLES AS DAYTIME CLOUDS COLLAPSE AND CLOUDINESS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE MOVES NORTH.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF A
LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO MOST COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OF THE
WINDS WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS ARE USUALLY
LIGHT...SUCH AS THE KONA COAST.

THE PENDING LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING POSSIBLY WARNING LEVELS SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING 200 PM HST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS OF ALL ISLANDS EXCEPT BIG ISLAND WINDWARD...SOUTHEAST AND
LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KINEL
REST...HUI