| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.6 C |
| RH | | 87 % |
| Wind | | WSW 0 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 368 FXHW60 PHFO 100130 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 330 PM HST MON DEC 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE NOSES IN TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLIES AND SOUTHERLIES BY THE COMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... A DEEP LOW 1200 MILES NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH TO REBOUND EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THIS HAS PROMPTED TRADE WINDS TO BEGIN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LINGERING ONLY AROUND KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS KEEPS DEEP CONVECTION ALIVE JUST OUTSIDE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS BUT...SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING AWAY...THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER APPEAR IN THE MARINE GRIDS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOWER AND WARMER-TOPPED CUMULUS SPREADING WESTWARD WITH THE TRADES. RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THESE CLOUDS AND WE ARE...AT MOST...FORECASTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. ALL THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE IN TRADE WIND FLOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THE RETURNING TRADES WILL BE STRONGEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE EXPECT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW FORMS FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY VEER...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLIES AND SOUTHERLIES FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT MAY REACH KAUAI LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON WINDWARD SLOPES AS TRADES DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED MVFR AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND ALONG THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AIRMET DURING THE NIGHT...IF LOWER CIGS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN A GIVEN AREA. && .MARINE... THE CURRENT NNW SWELL IMPACTING THE STATE WILL BE REINFORCED THIS WEEK BY ANOTHER NNW SWELL...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT SURF HEIGHT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW...HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THIS REINFORCING SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH STRENGTHENING TRADES...EXPECT TO SEE A BOOST IN EASTERLY SWELL LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTICK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALENUIHAHA AND PAILOLO CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND FOR WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL AVIATION...JACOBSON Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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