| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 2.4 C |
| RH | | 19 % |
| Wind | | NW 29 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 232 FXHW60 PHFO 301951 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MAUI WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE SHOWS THE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND OVER MAUI COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FRONT HAS HAD LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT...AND SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE FEATURE. AS A RESULT...FORECAST POPS REMAIN LOW OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS NORTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BACK TO THE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE QUESTIONABLE. THE MODELS AGREE ON SEVERAL LOWS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...BRINGING FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE ISLANDS AT DIFFERING TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. SINCE THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ITS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DISCERN WHEN EACH ONE WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. AS A GENERAL RULE...THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS WESTERLY WINDS FROM TUESDAY ON...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THAT ARE ALMOST TWICE THE SPEED OF ECMWF WINDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FURTHER RUNS CLOSELY. BOTH MODELS AGREE HOWEVER THAT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE REACHED KAUAI AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD BE REACHING OAHU SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY BUMPS IN THE SWELL ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI. AS THE ADDITIONAL SWELLS ARRIVE...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO EXPAND THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE SURF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD AVIATION...JELSEMA Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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