| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 7.5 C |
| RH | | 11 % |
| Wind | | ESE 9 mph |
| Road | | Open |
|
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: |
|
Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special |
|
|
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 011 FXHW60 PHFO 241333 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 330 AM HST THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... A SFC HIGH FAR NNE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RADAR DATA SHOWED SEVERAL SMALL BANDS OF MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THE E WITH THE MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS IN OAHU...THE WINDWARD AND SE SLOPES OF HALEAKALA IN MAUI...AND THE W MAUI MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LOW...PERSISTENCE OF THESE SHOWERS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MID MORNING TODAY...THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL START TO GRADUALLY BECOMING DRIER...ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE STABLE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW THAT THE INVERSIONS ARE RE-ESTABLISHING AROUND 6-8 THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MIMIC/GLOBAL MODEL MOISTURE ANALYSES DEPICT A DRIER AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME FOR THE SEASON...DOMINATED BY WINDWARD SHOWERS FAVORING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN BY LATE SAT AND INTO SUN...MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW MOVING S OF THE ISLANDS AND BRINGING A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TRADES. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE LOW LVLS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO DEPICTING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE E SOMETIME ON TUE. AND ALTHOUGH IS TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A DEFINITE SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH THE FORECAST BEING ADJUSTED AS NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. && .AVIATION... AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE LEE OF TERRAIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INVERSION SITTING BETWEEN 6000 TO 8000 FT. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA IS UP FOR MOUNTAIN OBSC OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MAUI SHOULD BE DROPPED BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THE BIG ISLAND AIRMET WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. AS THE MOISTURE IN THE TRADE FLOW IS SET TO CLEAR THE OTHER ISLANDS SOON...VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY...WITH ISOL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA SPEEDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL S OF THE ISLANDS AND BRINGS TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SMALL LONG-PERIOD BACKGROUND SWELL FROM THE SSW AND SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SE REPRESENT THE SWELL SOURCES FROM THE S HEMISPHERE... WHILE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES FROM THE E REPRESENT THE ONLY SOURCE OF SWELL FROM THE N HEMISPHERE. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ HAS BEEN UPDATED AND CONTAINS DETAILS THAN CAN BE LOOSELY APPLIED STATEWIDE. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST TODAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES AVIATION...WROE Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
|