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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

232
FXHW60 PHFO 301951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MAUI WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND OVER MAUI
COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FRONT HAS HAD LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT...AND SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE
FEATURE. AS A RESULT...FORECAST POPS REMAIN LOW OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS
NORTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BACK TO THE ISLANDS BY
TOMORROW...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE MODELS AGREE ON SEVERAL LOWS PASSING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BRINGING FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE ISLANDS AT DIFFERING
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. SINCE THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ITS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME TO DISCERN WHEN EACH ONE WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. AS A GENERAL
RULE...THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS WESTERLY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
ON...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL.

THE GFS BRINGS IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT ARE ALMOST TWICE THE SPEED OF ECMWF WINDS. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING FURTHER RUNS CLOSELY. BOTH MODELS AGREE HOWEVER THAT WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD
HAVE REACHED KAUAI AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD BE REACHING OAHU
SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY BUMPS IN THE SWELL ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. THE SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI
AND MAUI. AS THE ADDITIONAL SWELLS ARRIVE...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO
EXPAND THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE SURF.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office