Current Conditions
Temp-0.1 C
RH9 %
WindNNW 13 mph
RoadOpen
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

361
FXHW60 PHFO 020630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL BRING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO GET THE MOST RAIN. DRIER AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD ESTABLISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR NE OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THU...EXCEPT AROUND KAUAI WHERE A WEAK
TROUGH IS KEEPING LIGHTER TRADES. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS STILL KEEPING SLIGHTLY WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER KAUAI. THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MIGRATE NW AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH DRY TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ALOHA STATE THROUGH THU.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE SE OF THE STATE MOVING TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND
STARTING THU NIGHT AND THROUGH FRI. GFS REMAINS AS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BIG
ISLAND AND REACHING N UP TO MAUI COUNTY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT LESS AGGRESSIVE IN
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WINDWARD AND SE
AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND FRI AND SAT. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE MOIST
AIRMASS LONGER THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE...BASICALLY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW A BLEND
OF THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CALL FOR THE ENHANCED MOISTURE
TO REACH THE BIG ISLAND STARTING THU EVENING..SPREADING INTO MAUI
COUNTY FRI. OAHU AND KAUAI COULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST INCREASE IN
PASSING SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACTS RAIN-WISE ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE TRADES IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SHRA AND CLOUDS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY OVER MTN AND N AND E FACING SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO TONIGHT...AND AT PHNY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC DUE TO CLD AND SHRA OVER N
THRU E SECTIONS OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI...WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG TRADES ARE BRINGING ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDIER
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...FOR WHICH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY
DROP TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE BACK TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THOSE SAME WATERS ON SATURDAY.

THE STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO BOOST SURF HEIGHTS ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE...BUT SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG SOUTH...WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office