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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 240722
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
922 PM HST MON MAY 23 2016
The trade winds will diminish through Tuesday resulting in a
hybrid mix of light trades and daytime sea breeze convection
pattern for the second half of the week. an upper level trough
will drop down on the islands Wednesday resulting some enhanced
afternoon and evening showers. The mugginess level will also
rise under this light wind pattern.
The weather will be changing during the next 48 hours as a
trough is forecast to form north of the Kauai Tuesday afternoon.
This will cause our trades to turn light and to blow more from
the southeast especially over the western islands. This will
promote day sea breezes that will lead to afternoon and evening
At the upper levels, an upper level trough will be moving through
the islands Wednesday. But before Wednesday, we expect some
enhanced trade showers for the Koolau Mountains and windward
district of Oahu. This due to a favorable surface wind flow and
a destabilizing air mass from the approaching upper level trough.
The upper level trough swings through the islands Wednesday.
The light winds will promote widespread sea breezes. This will
lead to some spotty enhance heavy afternoon and evening showers.
The disturbance has a pool of cold air of minus 11 degree C,
which tend to be enough to set off an isolated thunderstorm or
two. Thunderstorms are not in the forecast now but will likely
be included in the very near future should the models continues
to hint on it. on top of this, a low level southeast wind
component may spread vog up to the western part of the island
chain. needless to say the comfort level will be tested as
humidity level increases under this wind component.
The air mass will regain some of the stability by Thursday.
The upper trough should be well east of the Big Island. For the
rest of the week, the trades will remain suppress at light to
moderate strength. It will be a hybrid mix of trades and sea and
land breezes. Spotty afternoon and evening showers are expected
but at a much more less intense level compare to Wednesday.
Next week's weather is up in the air at this point although both
the old ECMWF and new GFS solutions point to a late season front
moving through the islands from Sunday through Monday.
Dynamically, the upper levels will have trough moving through but
instead of a cold pool of air, it will be warm pool of minus 5
degree C. This is far out in the forecast and the solutions will
be changing. So we will see what the models are trending to in
the coming days.
A downward trend in trade winds is expected to continue into
Tuesday. Overnight, expect passing showers for mainly windward
and mountain areas. Some showers will carry periods of MVFR
cigs/vis. Clouds and showers over leeward Big Island will likely
continue into late tonight before clearing early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail into Tuesday
morning. There are no airmets in effect or anticipated.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is cancelled, and there are no
marine advisories or warnings in effect for the Hawaiian waters.
The winds will remain below SCA level for a few days, at least
Small surf will dominate on most shores this week. The one
exception is a small to moderate southwest swell that will build
on Thursday, peak on Friday, then decline during the weekend. This
swell will originate from the Tasman Sea, which tend to be
inconsistent for our islands. This is due to blockage from
the Pacific islands the swell has to go through before reaching us.
Please refer to the Collaborative Nearshore Swell and Wind Forecast
(SRDHFO) for more details.
Public and Marine...Lau
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office