| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 0.3 C |
| RH | | 32 % |
| Wind | | NNE 22 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 857 FXHW60 PHFO 240135 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 335 PM HST Wed Jan 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge will remain nearly stationary near Kauai through tomorrow. A front will move southeast over Kauai on Friday, then continue southeast, past the Big Island by Saturday night. A high will build north of the area early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The surface analysis shows a northeast to southwest surface ridge just northwest of Kauai. The ridge is forecast to remain nearly stationary through tomorrow. This ridge will produce moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds near the Big Island and Maui. There will be light to gentle southeast winds farther west, with nighttime land breezes followed by daytime sea breezes. A ridge aloft over the islands will keep the atmosphere dry and stable. The trade winds will push some clouds and showers over windward areas of the Big Island and Maui, mainly during the night and morning hours. Afternoon sea breezes will produce clouds over leeward areas of the Big Island and Maui and over interior areas from Lanai to Kauai. Rainfall amounts will be limited. A front will move southeast over Kauai on Friday, continue southeast across the rest of the islands and push southeast of the Big Island by Saturday night. A band of showery low clouds along the front will bring widespread showers to windward areas, but the clouds will be too shallow to bring much rain to leeward areas. A surface high will move southeast behind the front, bringing breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... A ridge just north of Kauai will dominate the weather pattern tonight and generate light east southeast flow. This will allow for local land breezes to develop this evening and continue into tonight. Isolated showers over interior areas this evening will shift towards the windward slopes and coasts later tonight. Brief MVFR conds may occur, due to lowered visibility in -SHRA, otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... A weak northeast to southwest ridge is just north of Kauai. This is keeping island waters under light to moderate east to southeast winds. A cold front is forecast to move across the area on Friday and Saturday, bringing a brief period of moderate to locally strong northeast winds. A large west-northwest to northwest swell arrived this morning with the Hanalei buoy peaking at almost 12 feet at 15 seconds. Kauai's north shore observations reported heights up to 20 feet just before the buoy peak. Wave heights have been decreasing since this morning's peak which is consistent with the timing and trend at Buoy 51001 northwest of Kauai. Since the Hanalei data are more in line with a high-end High Surf Advisory, the High Surf Warning for Kauai and Niihau will be replaced with an advisory. Islands east of Kauai will be a bit blocked with a swell from this direction so slightly smaller swells are expected for these areas. Thus, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the north and/or west facing shores from Oahu to the Big Island. Swell heights should trend downward on Thursday. A smaller west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Thursday night, peak on Friday, and gradually decline on Saturday. Advisory level surf is expected from this episode. Late in the forecast period, another west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive and produce surf near the advisory level Sunday night and into Monday. An east swell will produce elevated level surf along east facing shores through tonight. This swell will decrease on Thursday. Due to the large swell moving across the area and locally gusty winds in some of the channels, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for winds and seas through Thursday. SCA conditions will also be produced by the gusty winds associated with Friday's cold front combined with a new west-northwest swell. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, north facing shores of Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island of Hawaii. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Thursday for waters around Kauai, and Oahu Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters and the Big Island Windward waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donaldson AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Kodama Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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