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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 280659
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST MON JUN 27 2016
High pressure north of the area will maintain trade winds through
the holiday weekend. Ridging aloft will keep the atmosphere stable
through Tuesday, so passing showers affecting mainly windward areas
will be light. A low aloft will move south near the area Wednesday
and make the atmosphere unstable, so showers may become more active
through Thursday. The atmosphere will become more stable and much
drier over the weekend, resulting in a decrease in rainfall. A
strong high building far northeast of the area will bring windy
weather toward the weekend.
Trade wind weather will continue over the state through rest of the
evening into early Tuesday morning. The strong high that is
responsible for the winds will remain far north-northwest of Kauai
overnight. Low clouds with embedded showers carried by the winds
will affect mainly windward areas. As airmass remains somewhat
stable in the island vicinity, rainfall amounts will stay attenuated.
Trade wind weather will remain the main weather feature for the
islands through rest of the week as the same underlying weather
pattern persists. There will be variations to the weather conditions
though. The strong high far north-northwest will weaken in the next
couple of days, resulting in the winds decreasing a little.
Furthermore, forecast models still indicate a low aloft to form
north of Kauai late Tuesday, then move southwest slowly, closer to
the islands, through Thursday. This low will bring colder air
aloft, resulting in the airmass over the islands becoming more
unstable. With available low level moisture in the island vicinity,
showers will likely become more active Wednesday and Thursday.
Airmass may become unstable enough for possible thunderstorms.
Improving weather conditions are expected by late Thursday through
the weekend. As the low aloft is forecast to exit west with ridge
aloft building just east of the islands, the atmosphere over the
islands become more stable. Forecast models continue to show a
rather dry airmass to spread over the area from the east during this
period. This will probably lead to a decrease in showers as well as
low clouds. Meanwhile, a strong surface high is expected to build
far northeast of the state. Trade winds will strengthen as a result.
It may become quite windy across the state toward the holiday
Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible in passing SHRA across
windward locales. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF forecast period.
Airmet TANGO is in effect for mechanical turbulence below 8000
feet over and immediately south through west of mountains on all
islands. Airmet SIERRA is also in effect for occasional mountain
obscuration above 2500 feet across north and east sections of all
A small craft advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters
around Maui county and the Big Island through early Tuesday morning
as strong trade winds continue. Winds are expected to ease in the
next couple of days as the high far north-northwest weakens.
Therefore, the advisory will probably be taken down on Tuesday.
The lack of advisory for the coastal waters will be short-lived. A
new high will build northeast of the area by the second half of the
week. That high is forecast to become quite strong, and could bring
small craft level winds with possible gale force strength to the
windier coastal waters and channels by the early part of the holiday
Surf will remain below advisory levels along all shores at least for
the next few days. The current south swell will persist through
Tuesday. The fairly small but rough surf along east facing shores
will slowly subside as the trade winds weaken. Surf will rebuild
along the east facing shores and may reach advisory level for the
east facing shores over the weekend as the trades strengthen again.
Fire danger may increase over the holiday weekend across the
islands. The atmosphere over the islands is forecast to become quite
stable while very dry air may spread over the area from the east.
Combining with the anticipated strong winds, these conditions will
boost the fire danger potential.
Small Craft advisory until 600 AM HST Tuesday for the Pailolo and
Alenuihaha Channels, Maalaea Bay and waters south of the Big Island.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office